For today’s blog post, I thought I’d wrap up the remaining urban teal contests in Sydney and Perth.
To start with, this map shows the seats of Wentworth, Mackellar, Warringah and Bradfield. The first three have incumbent independents running for re-election, while the fourth had a strong contest that is now too close to call. Of course it’s worth emphasising that these maps only show the ordinary election day booths. Large parts of the vote have been cast through other methods and they are usually more conservative.
In the vast bulk of this area, the booths have swung to the teals.
In Warringah, Zali Steggall stayed roughly steady or went slightly backwards across most of her seat, but gained large swings in the areas added from North Sydney. Kylea Tink had polled a 2CP in the high 50s in this area, but Steggall’s vote is in the high 60s or over 70%.
Sophie Scamps also gained solid swings across most of Mackellar, except around Bilgola Beach.
Almost every booth shows a swing to Nicolette Boele in Bradfield. There has been a swing of over 3% to Boele, so that makes sense. Boele won most booths south of Pymble, although there are a few Liberal booth wins further south in Lindfield and Roseville Chase.
Allegra Spender actually suffered small swings in much of the eastern end of the seat, but those were balanced out by swings in her favour in the western end of the seat. It’s worth noting that the AEC’s margin treats Wentworth as being a notional Liberal seat with a 0.6% margin, which would imply a big swing to Spender. My estimate of her margin was 9.0%, and she is currently on 7.8%, which would be a small swing against. If you use Antony Green’s estimate instead, Spender would have made small gains. My booth swings are based on the seat-level margin.
And then in Perth, Curtin MP Kate Chaney gained swings across most of her electorate. The only exception was the south-western corner of the seat, around Claremont and Mosman Park. That is also the most Liberal-leaning area in the electorate, and was in 2022 (if not quite as much).
It’s pretty clear that the lower North Shore of Sydney has gone from blue ribbon blue to being progressive Teal or Labor leaning. Pretty much all but 2 booths from the old North Sydney (Hunter Hill and Castle Cove) are won by either Teal or Labor, and the swings in some places like North Sydney, Wollstonecraft and Lane Cove swung heavily to the left. Further proof that the Liberals in their current iteration has drifted to the right so much so that they’ve completely lost the plot with middle/upper class professionals around the most affluent areas of the country, bar Toorak, Armadale, Malvern, and eastern Sydney areas like Vaucluse, Double Bay, Point Piper etc.
What happened in North Turramurra? Did Boele do a tour of the retirement homes?
@Tommo9 it’s just a federal thing.
This is what this part of Sydney looks like on the federal level: https://jumpshare.com/v/QmtD8YOaO0bBl8ldYu2a
*state level I meant to say.
For comparison here is the federal level: https://jumpshare.com/v/Uxw5BfXADFOm8uG7PGqe
@ Nether Portal
Great map. Does Grey Shading mean it is tied? and have do you done at a suburb or postcode level?
https://www.9news.com.au/national/aec-investigating-missing-voting-papers-found-at-home-of-electoral-worker/08b94c1d-3585-4c79-80b3-6d5596eb75dd?ocid=Social-9News&fbclid=IwY2xjawKRA8pleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBicmlkETFtdzhKS3lJeUx5WGFJTVZzAR60D3r7WS4_LAmgriVVV-IAOm3WyGbxiZ90zyG94dFrU5Wpb3a_ne8D0Mpw6Q_aem_yK9gOvBYwjZGem40o2Wezg
this occured in the seat of Barton so at least the result cant be called into question