Warringah – Australia 2022

This seat will be an interesting battle. And I’ve read that Liberals are not optimistic that they will be able to dislodge independent Zali Steggall. Scott Morrison tried to recruit a star candidate in former NSW premier Mike Baird for the seat but he has refused to contest. The seat is traditionally conservative, however, the Nationals banging on against the issue of climate change may not go down well with voters who do share concerns with Steggall about the environment. Steggall was also able to gain traction from voters who grew tired of former member Tony Abbott and felt he had outstayed his welcome. She won’t be able to rely on this component this time with the Liberals getting a new candidate.

This seat will be an interesting one to watch.

The Liberals’ best bet is to go full grub and promise to turn the pork faucet on the sole condition that the seat elects a Liberal member. To be fair, the UK Conservatives have had a lot of success with those sort of tactics. But otherwise I suspect she’ll hold it. Even on Lib/Lab 2pp this seat swung 9 points against the Coalition. That to me is more than just temporary dissatisfaction with any particular party bum on the seat, even if he’s a former PM.

Compare Wentworth’s results between the 2018 by election and the 2019 federal election. Sharmer won on what was less than a 4 point swing. Zali has a much bigger buffer.

It also helps Steggall is basically an old-school wet lib – somewhat center-right on pocketbook matters but liberal on environmental/cultural ones. Unless the Libs can find a star candidate I think she’ll be pretty hard to dislodge.

John Ruddick is
Author of a book about modern liberalism, has resigned from the Liberal Party, & joined the Liberal Democrats. He will be running against Zali. Will the libs do something clever & run dead…..?
Nah !.

Morgan
Wake up mate. Zali has no allegiance, conviction, or devotion of any kind . Other than to her own ambitions, & winning in whatever way is most efficient. She is just yet another Achiever/Performer type 3 Fixation. Even her own family branded her as “OPPORTUNISTIC”. They had to retract quickly because she had ,(& used her) leverage . Apart from self promotion what exactly has she done ? Has she even done that well ?
“Wet Lib” !? Centre right !? Geez !!

Maybe Julia Baird from the ABC (The former premiers sister) could run here for the libs. It’s not unusual for ABC journalists to run for politics just look at Maxine Mckew. Baird would have the family name recognition. Other possibilities is Christine Forester (Abbotts sister who would be seen as a much better fit for this seat) and maybe Barry O’farrell. Lucy Turnbull,Alex Turnbull or maybe even Malcolm himself could also run here and win!

PN
Mostly agree with you. However….
“The seat is traditionally conservative” NO. Clearly it has 3 very different components. Ben has identified them clearly, & they have very different agendas. South of the spit is rich privileged, elitist. They weren’t just bored with Abbott, they felt embarrassed, even diminished by him.Plus it was cool, new different, even hip to be able to tip him out.
Manly is young , hip, & happening. The Greens have a huge vote here, & have won booths frequently. Abbott never did well here.
North –middle class suburbia, & some beaches. More mixed Zali actually didn’t do nearly as well here.
The biggest factor is that Getup ! won’t be spending 2/3rds (was it $10million ?) of their budget campaigning against Zali’s opponent'(s)
I don’t know whether the climate change catastrophism will be influential this time. Instinctively perhaps some signs of fatigue & scepticism may emerge here ?. Suggesting Nationals behaviour may have influence here is really quite a reach !!!. You might remark “Even for you WD”!. I doubt even Barnaby’s worst excesses could raise much notice, even interest here!!
cheers WD

My seat here, I think people can agree the liberals will get a swing too them just the question is the extent of the swing. Where I live in Mosman Zali did open a second office along Military Road as what I can think would be some worry around this part of the electorate potentially due to some poor internal polling. The liberals might just fall short and only get 5% or so of a needed 7.2% due to parts of Manly I don’t think swinging a whole lot.

Pez
i agree. What do think about Warringah moving into N Sydney or McKellar for 15000 voters ?

Comparisons between Warringah, & Wentworth are pretty silly IMV. Kerryn Phelps got ELECTED in a by-election, in a clear run against a fresh candidate. Zali ran against a long term incumbent in a general election. Ver different scenario’s .

Phelps had no defence against 3 things
1 she is not a nice person !
2 she is out for herself, & couldn’t give a rats about anyone else.
3/ she will do & say anything to win
After about 1 year enough people had worked this out for her not to get a sophomore swing.

To be fair perhaps not all of those 3 things apply to Zali. However it is fascinating that no one is predicting a sophomore swing. Just observing thats all!.

It would make some sense to put all the north shore and beaches in 2 seats each but im not sure on population numbers for each electorate and how it can work. I believe the north west if there’s a new seat added will probably get one but we will have to wait for that.

In terms of Warringah itself obviously as a young adult and liberal voter I would like to see the liberals win but I just feel their chances in 2025 will be a lot better the main aim would definitely be to get a nice swing to help set that up. Zali honestly I see as a lazy member and really only sits around Manly where her main base is, havent honestly seen her in Mosman at all since Election Day and believe her second office which is very unusual for small electorates is all for show. There is no way she gets a swing towards her though 2019 was as high as it’ll get for an independent.

There’s two options for Warringah at the next redistribution. The most likely is that Warringah will expand to encompass nearly half of North Sydney LGA. The other is that it will move up the coast, with Mackellar gaining parts of the Upper North Shore. What impact would these scenarios have on Steggall assuming she holds on this time?

Pez
I commented about this in the N Sydney thread. Major work needs to happen electorally. Is Zali lazy, or just invisible, & ineffective?. I believe voters act against their own best interests rarely , however this is a fine example. Warringah voters rejected an influential ex PM , for flaky failed lawyer. How many regret it ?
cheers wd

Nicholas Weston
Indeed. Either scenario would present Zali with greater challenge. I believe she will agitate for minimal change- a move further into N Sydney LGA. This is a far more “woke” image conscious & electorally volatile area. This is perfectly illustrated by residents such as reigning Olympic class national champion wanker Peter Fitzsimons !. He probably thinks Zali is a visionary.

@winediamond

Would also mean that Warringah would lose parts of the Forest District, where Steggall performed the worst. But perhaps this result is attributable to the fact that Tony Abbott lives in Forestville.

57/43 a big margin……. then again Abbott was the first liberal to lose this seat

Winediamond
I believe Zali is a bit on the lazier side as I think she really just sticks to the manly side of the electorate and doesn’t seem to venture out much. Her base is very interesting too I feel it’s mostly Karen type females as a harsh way to put it, young people too I guess mainly women as they saw her as the one to defeat Tony but also a lot of those left leaning climate boomers which I’m not sure whether they stay with her or give Labor their first preference again, either way she will get it pretty much back in preferences. The libs will win the primary vote this time cause honestly it can’t get worse then 39% and will probably get a 44-45% range I’d say where they will be needing 46.5%+ normally.

Thanks to everyone for all the comments. I am enjoying the banter on many seat profiles! I’m commenting on Warringah as I recently had come across my Facebook feed an advert for “Our Future Warringah”. The website being: https://www.ourfuturewarringah.com.au/ . DISCLAIMER: I am not endorsing this movement in any shape or form. (EDIT for Ben: feel free to remove website address in moderation if not meeting comments guideline and change wording to ‘they have their own website’. and then delete this edit, thanks)

I am merely curious that there’s an outfit actively to seek to gain traction and thought it related to the above comments talking about possible challenges to Zali (whether Lib, LDP or otherwise). [As it seems to have been recently set up live, within the past 2 weeks.]

Interestingly, I cannot find an individual or group that endorsed this page but notice Climate Change is one of the 4 key part of ‘Our Vision’ for Warringah. Their ‘Initiatives’ part of the website is broken, and very basic in information, but the display is well polished. Although on the main page it does quote to “put political pressure on our current federal member for Warringah,”. Whether this outfit morphs into raising a candidate (a la Hughes) remains to be seen. Does anyone else know anything further? All I can is, it looks like Warringah is heating up!

The domain information lists Chris Clark, the Trustee for the Ryan Parker Trust as the owner. The Ryan Parker Trust is a Discretionary Trading Trust based in Brisbane. That combined with the nondescript ‘we kinda just want stuff to be better’ waffle gives me shady, dark money sort of vibes. But it could be anything.

Correction: Chris Clark is the registrant, and the trust he runs owns Thirteen Digital which makes websites. So he could have just made the website on behalf of _someone_. Strange nonetheless.

My seat – live just around the corner from PEZ. Zali’s office is very prominant on the intersection of Military and Spit roads (two major roads). Very good location as the traffic snarls at the mean that the punters have to sit there and look at Zali’s image.

My feel from the ground is that Zali will be returned. She hasn’t done anything substantial (she still manages to get some federal money for community matters and advertises this through the Mosman Daily (local newspaper which is actually read). That said, the punters in Waringah aren’t generally thinking about what Government can do for them as they pay “all the tax” that is then transfered to other parts of the country. So the less a member is doing the better as it allows the punters to get on with their life without Government interference and hopefully lower taxes. The imposition of the boarder lockdown (can’t go to ski trip in the US – look at the number of cases in Mosman early last year which I understand were a consequence of a large number of people going to the US for their ski trips….) and the slow rate of vaccination leading to the current lock down is not going to assist the liberals. Especially when the punters can’t go on their European / US summer trip and these areas are opening up big time with vaccination rates above 50%….

For Zali to lose (or the liberals to win depending on your point of view) the liberals need to run a “celebrity” candidate. The people I hang around with think Mike Baird or Gladys would win. I haven’t heard Christine Forster or Julia Baird’s names mentioned but these are “B” Grade celebrities compared to Mike or Gladys. A liberal party “hack” won’t entice enough voters back to the fold as the hack won’t give enough punters a reason to change back – look at Indi and Mayo which have not reverted to the Libs as good comparisons.

It will be interesting to see if there is leakage in the senate vote. At the last election Abbott’s primary vote fell significantly but the coalitions senate vote was only down about 1%.

Zali to (easily) retain absent a Mike or Gladys candiency.

Also will the National’s run given there is no sitting liberal?

Cheers

Pollster

I honestly think this seat could become competitive for Labor or the Greens in the future. The 2PP LIB vs ALP at 2019 election was a margin of 2.12% for the Liberals. This is exceptionally troubling even with the presence of an Independent, in the 99 years since Warringah was created the Liberal’s have never had this low of a 2PP vs Labor. This seat is changing.

Ben Labor are never going to win this seat just because the 2PP was close cause of a protest vote in which the preferences didn’t even matter doesn’t mean it’s close. There was anger against the sitting member not the party itself as a lot of the senate vote in the area still held up. Also Labor’s primary of 6% roughly is woeful even with an independent running.

Yes Ben, there was a massive 2PP swing here, but no-one noticed it as Zali won easily.

The Cremorne and Neutral Bay joint booths with North Sydney (where there was no IND in 2019) are interesting. The Warringah result was 61/39 to Steggall for both. For North Sydney, the result in Cremorne was 59/41 to LIB (the seat average) – a 9% swing, whilst Neutral Bay was just LIB 52/48 – an 8% swing.

Though Winediamond will simply tell us this reinforces his view of the local MP for North Sydney!

Reports have it that Gladys Berejiklian has been approached to contest this seat at the federal election. It’s odd considering she still has to be investigated by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption probe.

I love of the double standards of Newscorpe. They quadruple down on former Queensland Labor deputy premier Jackie Trad who was actually cleared by the CCC. But if its a Liberal politician such as Berejiklian they are all handwringing and blaming the corruption watchdog.

I don’t know why Berejiklian would be approached to run in Warringah when it’s just going to be a waste of Lib resources in a state where they are now badly tanking. The Libs need to realise they have no chance in Warringah and just put their money and resources elsewhere in the state. They probably have to do the same thing for the entire state of WA because there’s very little ground worth saving.

Discussions on Lib pre-election include former YL president Alex Dore (who moved into the area) and local Jane Buncle.

There has been much conjecture about other candidates for the seat. This is a pre-selection to watch.

Picked Abbott to win in 2019.. largely because I thought the seat was just 2 conservative.This reminds me of 2013 when Sophie Mirabeau lost despite a 4 to 4% swing to the liberals maybe the voters are wise

Steggall was only elected because Abbott was deeply unpopular but she does seem like a relatively good fit for this seat. I think the Liberals have a problem with fiscally conservative/culturally progressive white collar seats like this, kinda like how Labor has a problem with culturally conservatives blue collar seats.

A few people here have commented that an independent can’t do better than 58:42 TPP, but Andrew Wilkie won Clark (which would otherwise probably be a safe Labor seat) 72:28 TPP at the last election.

It was stated on insiders that the Libs were polling the seat last weekend to gauge Gladys’ support. Any one got any gossip on how the polling came out?

It was reported in the Sydney Morning Herald Liberal rank and file in seats Warringah and Gilmore are getting restless because they believe the Liberal executive is deliberately stalling the pre-selections. In a strategy to put in Scott Morrison’s ‘captains picks’ in key seats. The obvious choice is Andrew Constance for Morrison in Gilmore. But the only one really rumored is Gladys Berejiklian in Warringah. Mike Baird has already ruled it out contesting Warringah.

Its funny that Berejiklian is a consideration. If this was the Labor party, then it would out of the question. And the media certainly would let up on it either.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/folau-considers-a-higher-purpose-in-politics-20211115-p5994t.html

News are reporting that Gladys is being pushed to run here and is actually considering it. Liberal preselection has been pushed back a month to hope that she runs. I think she’d have a good chance here but not sure about parachuting.

Game, set and match if Gladys runs in this seat, nothing to see, she will win it easy.

In Warringah many people didn’t want Gladys to resign and think she should’ve stayed on. She’s very popular in this area because of her premiership and some around here call her Aunt Gladys for it.

My feeling is that Zali will be returned, however on a narrow margin. She will rely very heavily on preference flows from Greens and Labor voters to get over the line.

Without Abbott, the sense of urgency is gone from some of the Lib supporters she convinced last election, and indeed from some of the Greens and Labor voters who jumped camps as well.

There will be some previous Lib voters who will return to the party if the Libs preselect someone relatively sensible – I think many Lib voters were simply done with Abbott as an embarrassment. Here the Libs could shoot themselves in the foot, as the pre-selecters in the party tend to have more conservative views than their average voters in this electorate. Although, they have been running market research in the area, so perhaps they will make a strategic decision. If Gladys were to run it may attract some of the previous Lib voters back, but I don’t actually think it would guarantee a Lib win – Gladys ICAC investigation is unlikely to be resolved before the election, and her integrity is too easily attacked in the meantime. While it is true that Gladys has many local fans, in my observation they’re mostly the same people who loyally voted Liberal for Abbott.

Zali had a number of wealthy benefactors last election, many of whom were disgruntled Libs. I’d be curious to know how many will keep their pocket books open without the spectre of Abbott, assuming the Libs are smart enough not to preselect someone similarly awful. Although Zali received grassroots donations, it was the wealthy benefactors in Mosman who did the heavy lifting financially. Some of the people involved in Zali’s campaign are now involved in the campaign to get rid of Jason Falinski, which will potentially split Zali’s workhorse supporters and grassroots donors more thinly between the two campaigns.

I think it is an objective observation to say Zali has not been able to achieve much of material substance during her term, although I actually think she has been working relatively diligently. I’d say the cause of her perceived lack of action is more through bad luck than laziness;
1) She holds no swing vote, and therefore it has been extremely easy for the Libs to marginalise her in Parliament, voting against her climate bill, PEP11 bill, etc. She was only ever going to have influence if there was a minority government. There is currently no incentive for the Libs to let her get any wins on the board, whereas a Labor Govt may have been more willing to play ball.
2) COVID has made it quite hard for politicians to be out on the hustings, as it’s been hard for her to be “seen” in the community, when everyone has spent the last 2 years holed up at home, and would really need to seek out online events involving Zali to see what she is up to.
3) People underestimate the sheer amount of “business as usual” work of reading bills, engaging with parliamentary committees, etc, when Zali has only has a couple of electoral staff to support her full time. Compare this even to small parties like the Greens or Shooters and Fishers (at a state level anyway), where they have multiple MPs and staffers to divide up work, and party machinery behind them to work on policy issues. I think probably Zali and her supporters alike were a bit naive about how much they could really achieve with just one MP, given how many issues there are to be across.

I agree with other commenters that some of the other campaigns which helped Zali will not pump the same resources. GetUp brought some mixed blessings (Though, tbh, I dont think they helped convince Lib voters, so much as convinced swing, Greens and Labor voters), but doubt the Stop Adani campaign will be as strong.

I think Steggall will struggle, especially if the Lib machine drop a lot of resources into this.
Much will be made of the anti-Liberal vote at the Local Government elections but like most Council elections prior, Libs did not run candidates in many Councils whereas Labor overspent- wasting funds that could’ve been allocated to State and Federal campaigns.
The warchest in particular in NSW, is still fairly high, whereas Labor has given up in seats in Sydney’s North Shore and Eastern suburb, surrendering ground to Greens and Independents.
The anti-Liberal vote will run out of gas in NSW, exhausted in the Local Government elections by the time the election runs around. ScoMo stills polls better against Albo head to head, as the former is a better media performer.
Perrottet has also been able to refresh a state government that will be going for a 4th term in office.
Gladys will do particularly well with Sydney’s Armenian population that largely inhabits the North Shore and North-Western Sydney.
Steggall looks to become another Kerryn Phelps, and will need the help of the Michael Regan team to mobilise and get across the line.
I also think this “Voices for” movement is being greatly overplayed, as when it comes to crunch time- many conservative electorates are still weary of the last time Labor and Independents shared power, rightly or wrongly.

Internal polling for the Liberals suggested Gladys would win this back, but not any other Liberal candidate.

I disagree it is two electorates the more socially conservative non Mosman massive high property prices end with a large woke apartment population of renters ( the engaged politically ones who are able to vote I mean) AND the rest in the more lower middle class traditional values end of Many Warringah where there there are 2nd 3rd and 4th generation people making up at least 1/4 or more of the population. In the other end a Liberal who maybe socially liberal and not ultra right on climate but who is also possessed of some degree of traditional legitimacy ( someone like Ms Spender) would do well and easily negate Steggall’s appeal to a goof half of those who vote for her who normally and usually vote Liberal.

It’s a bit odd that Gladys Berejiklian is considering running for a seat while the ICAC investigation is still going, considering that was her rationale for resigning as premier. I do think she’d have a good shot at winning thanks to the very favourable media coverage she’s gotten and will presumably continue to get. Good point by Political Nightwatchman – imagine how differently the media would have reacted if Dan Andrews or Annastacia Palaszczuk had resigned under exactly the same circumstances.

She’s definitely had a huge fawning media pack and high levels of public affection. However, I don’t think it’s necessary ideological, but gender-based. I can’t tell you how many women I’ve spoken to who see Gladys as a woman hard done by a complete tosspot boyfriend. Like sure, but that’s not the issue LOL

And of course, the investigation is ongoing.

The NSW press pack are some of the most pathetic, obsequious, simpering courtiers in the alleged free world and the Libs will lean hard into the poor persecuted little premier angle, not just for the sake of this seat but as a wider strategy of undermining public appetite for ICAC. Labor share a lot of the blame for allowing that narrative to flourish largely unchallenged; not least by rolling Jodie McKay and the cowardly outpouring of well wishes and sympathy when Berejiklian resigned. So pressure will be on Steggall to toe the line and downplay personal criticism of Berejiklian. This would be a massive mistake imo. The raison d’etre for ICAC in the first place is its independence, and if she concedes it’s ‘going too far’ by being mean to the bestest most special world-saving girlboss premier whats heart was broken then she undermines one of the few remaining points of difference between her and the Liberals. Voices have strengths, they’ve been able to field impressive numbers of volunteers and they obviously have very deep pockets in their corner, but they need motivation and material to work with. Whether it’s bad luck or not, Steggall has been coasting along lately and she needs to be seen fighting to hang on.

I live and work in Warringah and I can tell you now there definitely was lots of support for Gladys when she had to resign as lots of people I talked to were very much saddened by it especially women who I believe would love to see her run federally and you need these female voters to swap from Zali and cord for Gladys which would ultimately result in the seat flipping if enough do so.

Update: Gladys has ruled out running for the seat.
Libs will need someone high profile to wrestle this back; maybe Tooves?

The Federal Parliament needs true, intelligent independent voices like Zali.

@John T – I’ve had run-ins with Zali’s personal Team and they are mostly militant Blow-In activists from the Eastern Suburbs, not locals. The beans were spilled into my lap when a lady who was dating my cousins told us she worked for Get-Up and was part of their campaign to get Zali up over Abbott. She openly admitted most of them were doing it because they knew she would win and they were trying to get jobs in her office. Cynical in every sense.

The vote in Warringah was an anti-Abbott Vote and he deserved to get punted, especially for what I thought was the laziest campaign I had ever seen from an uncumbent.. It is almost as if he had given up on campaigning. The problem the Liberal Party has now is that there is no-one of worth to run in the seat, with two of the front-runners being Alex Dore (BLEH) and Jane Buncle (basically Zali except a little more right).

The question will then become whether Zali has converted enough of the anti-abbott vote.

I’m not usually one to go to bat for Voices minions but Steggall has what, dozens? hundreds? of volunteers. You’re saying they’re all just climbing the totem pole?

As for blow-ins, you can guarantee that happens in practically every competitive seat, for every competitive party. And I doubt they’re mostly from the Eastern suburbs either – they had their own race in Wentworth to worry about. A fairer bet is they’re from other Northern Sydney seats that *aren’t* competitive, know they’d be wasting their time campaigning there, and so travel to where the manpower’s needed. And I’m not sure that’s necessarily a bad thing.

From my local observations, Get Up seem to be better at getting helpers out on election day than any of the major parties.

@FL: I’m refering to her personal Team, those actually employed by her. Not necessarily the volunteers.

As for them climbing the totem pole, I can generally agree that it happens everywhere. Back when I was more active in the Liberal Party (early 20’s), I was attracted to the prospect of a staffing position. Maybe it was for the best that I didn’t get it but one thing I did notice was that militant behaviour was often encouraged and I’m someone that doesn’t generally go for that.

The information about the Volunteers was spilled by my cousin’s ex. I know you regularly get volunteers coming in from outside to help for a campaign. Unfortunately, the vast majority (does happen on all sides but it seems moreso with independent candidates and activist groups) are that they are more militant and quite unpleasant to deal.

Oh if you’re talking about the staffers then yeah, they come from everywhere and in all shades of asshole. Volunteers can be pricks, but most aren’t dumb enough to believe they’re getting any more than a pat on the back for their trouble. But in my experience the vast majority are normal, genuine people. Nice even. Anyway your cousin’s ex said what she said.

A late pre-selection option for the Liberal Party, with local branch member Lincoln Parker nominating for the pre-selection. Word as well is that Alex Dore and Sasha Grebe will pull out of the pre-selection race, leaving it to a 2-horse race between Parker and Buncle.

I don’t know much about Lincoln Parker but I was Buncle’s Branch President when she first joined the party. Intelligent and pleasant enough but not sure she can be the retail politician needed to beat Zali. TBH, I hope I’m wrong with the latter.

Its been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald that Barrister Jane Buncle has now withdrawn her nomination for Warringah. Buncle has cited the delays of getting the preselection finalised as the reason for quitting as it doesn’t provide enough time to establish a competitive campaign. Its been reported that defense analyst Lincoln Parker will now be the Liberals candidate by default.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/presumed-liberal-candidate-for-warringah-quits-amid-state-branch-turmoil-20220131-p59spw.html

PN
How interesting. Now we have a contest between substance (Parker) & pretence (Zali) . I wonder whether the current expectation of a Lib LOSS, will help, or hinder Zali ? . Instinctively i sense that it helps her, a lot