Blaxland – Australia 2022

ALP 14.7%

Incumbent MP
Jason Clare, since 2007.

Geography
South-western Sydney. Blaxland covers large parts of the former City of Bankstown. A majority of the seat lies in Bankstown council area, along with small parts of Fairfield, Holroyd, Parramatta and Auburn council areas. It covers the centre of Bankstown and the suburbs of Condell Park, Yagoona, Georges Hall, Bass Hill, Birrong, Chester Hill, Villawood, Yennora, Regents Park and parts of Fairfield and Granville.

History
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1949.

Blaxland was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate James Harrison. Harrison defeated former NSW Labor premier Jack Lang, who had won the seat of Reid as an independent in 1946.

Harrison held Blaxland as a Labor backbencher for twenty years, retiring in 1969. He was succeeded by 25-year-old Paul Keating. Keating quickly rose through the ranks of the ALP, joining Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1975. Keating went on to serve as Treasurer in the Hawke government and after a period of turmoil was elected Labor leader in 1991, becoming Prime Minister.

Keating was re-elected as Prime Minister at the 1993 election, but lost the 1996 election. Following his defeat he resigned as Member for Blaxland.

The ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Michael Hatton. Hatton held the seat for the entirety of the Howard government, but was challenged for preselection in 2007 to Jason Clare, a former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who had the support of the NSW Labor Party executive, and Clare won the seat at the 2007 election. Clare has been re-elected four times.

Candidates

  • Adam Stepanoff (One Nation)
  • Oz Guney (Liberal)
  • Linda Eisler (Greens)
  • Jason Clare (Labor)
  • Elvis Sinosic (United Australia)
  • Assessment
    Blaxland is a safe Labor seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Jason Clare Labor 46,68957.8-5.5
    Oz Guney Liberal 23,28928.8+4.0
    James Rooney Greens 4,3295.4+0.7
    Veronica RoweChristian Democratic Party4,1735.2-0.9
    Nadeem AshrafUnited Australia Party2,3282.9+2.9
    Informal12,40113.3+1.8

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Jason Clare Labor 52,29964.7-4.8
    Oz Guney Liberal 28,50935.3+4.8

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south. The centre and the south covers those areas in the former Bankstown council area, while the north covers those in the new Cumberland council area.

    Labor won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.8% in the south to 68.8% in the north.

    Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    South63.817,83622.1
    Central65.916,45020.4
    North68.815,85119.6
    Pre-poll64.321,39226.5
    Other votes58.49,27911.5

    Election results in Blaxland at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

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    6 COMMENTS

    1. Is the liberal booth…… part of what boundary was chosen m4 I think.. instead I’d say canterbury/ Milperra rd

    2. Milperra in the past was in Banks. I feel that it will be better fit with suburbs such as East Hills, Picnic Point etc instead the Rest of Lidcombe and areas East of Woodville Road would fit better in Blaxland. At a state level Milperra is in East Hills. I am not sure about the demographics of Milperra.

    3. Milperra is the odd suburb out of Blaxland. It has a clear majority of English only speakers, and is very Anglo compared to the rest of the electorate, which has a high migrant population. It is also wealthier than the rest of the electorate, and I think the booth there has consistently voted Liberal, again unlike the rest of Blaxland. It would be a better fit with the suburbs along the Georges River than with Bankstown and Auburn, as Nimalan points out.

    4. Milperra was in Blaxland during the eighties, it was in the state seat of Bass Hill then as well.
      It usually votes Labor when govts change thou.

    5. You can see what they use as the boundary for this, being the M5. But I agree that Milperra is the odd-one-out here. You could make a case for Milperra to move to Banks and for Blaxland to extend up along Woodville Road all the way up to the intersection with the M4.

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