Ginninderra – ACT 2024

Incumbent MPs

  • Yvette Berry (Labor), since 2012.
  • Peter Cain (Liberal), since 2020.
  • Tara Cheyne (Labor), since 2016.
  • Jo Clay (Greens), since 2020.
  • Elizabeth Kikkert (Family First), since 2016.1

1Elizabeth Kikkert served as a member of the Liberal Party until she was disendorsed in September 2024. She joined Family First soon after.

Geography
Ginninderra covers the majority of the Belconnen district in north-western Canberra, including the suburbs of Aranda, Macquarie, Bruce, Page, Scullin, Florey, Latham, Higgins, Macgregor, Charnwood, Melba, Spence, Fraser, Evatt, McKellar, Lawson and Dunlop.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The electorate of Ginninderra was created in 1995, when the ACT electoral system was changed to introduce multi-member districts for the first time.The seat covered almost exactly the same area from 1995 until 2012, having undergone two minor redistributions prior to the 2001 and 2012 elections.

Ginninderra has always elected five MLAs. Labor has always won two seats, and the Liberal Party has also won two. The fifth seat has alternated between Labor and a succession of crossbenchers.

In 1995, the fifth seat was won by Greens candidate Lucy Horodny. In 1998, she lost that seat to independent Dave Rugendyke, running on a social conservative platform with former rugby league player Paul Osborne.

In 2001, the seat instead went Roslyn Dundas of the Democrats.

In 2004, the seat went to Labor’s Mary Porter, giving Labor three out of the five seats, which helped give them majority government for the only time in ACT history.

In 2008, the third Labor seat was lost to the Greens’ Meredith Hunter, one of four Greens elected across the territory. In 2012, Hunter lost her seat to Labor’s Yvette Berry.

The 2016 election produced a status quo result, with Labor holding three seats and the Liberal Party holding two.

In 2020, Labor lost their third seat to the Greens’ Jo Clay.

Candidates

Assessment
Traditionally Labor and Liberal have both held two seats throughout the Hare-Clark era in Ginninderra, but the preference allocations from 2020 reveal that the second Liberal seat was only barely held on – a slightly lower Liberal vote could have seen a split of 3 Labor, 1 Greens and 1 Liberal.

It’s also worth noting that the Belco Party polled almost 10% in Ginninderra, which was the best result for any party outside of the three Assembly parties in any electorate. A swing of roughly 0.15 quota towards this party would have seen them overtake the second Liberal and potentially challenge for the fifth seat. It’s possible that a decline in support for the Labor-Greens government could manifest in a more right-wing crossbencher in Ginninderra.

In addition, Elizabeth Kikkert’s candidacy for Family First could threaten one of the Liberal seats from the right.

2020 result

2020 election
Party Votes % Quota Swing
Labor 22,409 40.0 2.400 -1.1
Liberal 14,977 26.7 1.604 -5.9
Greens 7,006 12.5 0.750 +2.7
Belco Party 5,264 9.4 0.564 +8.2
Democratic Labour 1,347 2.4 0.144 +2.4
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 1,290 2.3 0.138 +2.3
Sustainable Australia 987 1.8 0.106 0.0
Animal Justice 959 1.7 0.103 +0.8
Others 704 1.3 0.075 +1.3
Climate Change Justice 618 1.1 0.066 +1.1
Liberal Democrats 464 0.8 0.050 -0.5
Informal 865 1.5

2020 preference flows

Let’s fast forward until there are ten candidates left in the race. This includes four Liberal candidates, and two each for Labor, the Greens and the Belco Party. Labor’s Yvette Berry has already been elected to the first seat.

      • Tara Cheyne (ALP) – 0.868 quotas
      • Gordon Ramsay (ALP) – 0.685
      • Elizabeth Kikkert (LIB) – 0.670
      • Jo Clay (GRN) – 0.535
      • Peter Cain (LIB) – 0.407
      • Katt Millner (GRN) – 0.383
      • Robert Gunning (LIB) – 0.381
      • Bill Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.358
      • Kacey Lam (LIB) – 0.311
      • Chic Henry (BEL) – 0.274

Just over half of Henry’s preferences flowed to the one remaining Belco Party candidate, pushing Stefaniak into sixth place:

      • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.882
      • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.701
      • Kikkert (LIB) – 0.684
      • Clay (GRN) – 0.541
      • Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.506
      • Cain (LIB) – 0.420
      • Gunning (LIB) – 0.394
      • Millner (GRN) – 0.388
      • Lam (LIB) – 0.318

Lam’s preferences flowed most strongly to her fellow Liberals, particularly Kikkert:

      • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.895
      • Kikkert (LIB) – 0.804
      • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.710
      • Clay (GRN) – 0.551
      • Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.523
      • Cain (LIB) – 0.482
      • Gunning (LIB) – 0.454
      • Millner (GRN) – 0.395

About two thirds of Millner’s preferences flowed to the last remaining Greens candidate, pushing Clay into third place:

      • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.934
      • Clay (GRN) – 0.838
      • Kikkert (LIB) – 0.808
      • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.730
      • Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.527
      • Cain (LIB) – 0.487
      • Gunning (LIB) – 0.456

Gunning’s preferences pushed Gunning ahead of Stefaniak, and pushed Kikkert close to a quota:

      • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.944
      • Clay (GRN) – 0.843
      • Kikkert (LIB) – 0.985
      • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.749
      • Cain (LIB) – 0.683
      • Stefaniak (BEL) – 0.542

Stefaniak’s preferences mostly exhausted, but the remainder favoured the Liberals, pushing Kikkert over quota:

      • Kikkert (LIB) – 1.082
      • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.974
      • Clay (GRN) – 0.866
      • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.787
      • Cain (LIB) – 0.753

Kikkert’s small surplus was just enough to push Cain ahead of Ramsay:

      • Cheyne (ALP) – 0.979
      • Clay (GRN) – 0.868
      • Cain (LIB) – 0.807
      • Ramsay (ALP) – 0.790

Cain, the second Liberal, ended up only winning by just 0.017 quotas over the third Labor candidate.

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Ginninderra have been split into three parts: central, north and east.

Labor topped the poll in all three areas, ranging from 39.8% in the north to 40.4% in the centre.

The Liberal vote ranged from 26.2% in the east to 27.6% in the centre. The Greens polled 10.7% in the centre and north, but close to 14% in the east. The Belco Party came fourth, with a primary vote ranging from 8.1% in the east to 11.1% in the north.

Voter group ALP % LIB % GRN % BEL % Total votes % of votes
East 40.2 26.2 13.9 8.1 20,428 36.5
Central 40.4 27.6 10.7 10.9 14,534 25.9
North 39.8 26.8 10.7 11.1 10,419 18.6
Other votes 37.7 29.0 12.8 8.6 5,980 10.7
Other pre-poll 41.2 23.2 15.6 7.4 4,664 8.3

Election results in Ginninderra at the 2020 ACT election
Toggle between primary votes for the Labor Party, Liberal Party, the Greens and the Belco Party.


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8 COMMENTS

  1. Probably the Greens’ best chance of a new seat. Jo Clay has been a standout performer and results like Forest Lake at the BCC election suggest to me that Greens may yet be able to get the traditional suburban ALP vote (something they’d be figuring out as they seek to retain Griffith)

    Liberals only winning 1 seat looms large – maybe if enough socially conservative Liberal voters are turned off by Lee and vote Belco party instead (with as much risk of it amounting to nothing as last time).

  2. Elizabeth Kikkert has been disendorsed by the Liberals, seemingly due to alleged issues around donations and the mistreatment of staff.

  4. Kikkert has made no announcement about running – she is not going to join the Belco Party – which polled 9.3% of the vote in 2020. Belco Party could take the second Liberal seat

  5. Bold prediction – there’s enough chaos on the right of Labor that 3-1-1 or 2-1-2 is the likely result. Kikkert, Belco Party, any 2nd Lib and Independents for Canberra will all fall victim to the “Ginninderra effect”.

    Greens seem to have softly pivoted back to single lead candidates outside Kurrajong, so Labor 3 more likely than Greens 2.

  6. Further bad news for the Liberals in Gininderra – one of their candidates is all over the Canberra times with not terribly salubrious media posts in his past. Elizabeth Kiffert has joined the Family first Party – no news yet on whether she will run but it seems likely

  8. With the Liberals’ multiple candidate problems here, I’d hazard a guess this is the best shot for a non Labor/Liberal/Greens win – seems like IFC or Belco party could have a shot. I’m sceptical about Family First’s chances even with an incumbent considering their far-right politics, but maybe I’ll be proven wrong!

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