The Australian Electoral Commission yesterday published the official statistics that will be used for federal redistributions in South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT. This gives us a bit more insight into what is likely to happen in those redistributions.
Electorates must be drawn so each seat is within 10% of average enrolment at the start of the process (in this case, August 2025), but also so that seats are within 3.5% of the average for a projected enrolment three-and-a-half years after the end of the process (in this case, April 2030). That second rule is much stricter, and thus ends up being more important in the drawing of new seats.
In a previous post, I looked at the population patterns based on June enrolment data. But we didn’t have projected data until yesterday afternoon. So for this post I will look at that second set of datapoints.
Not one seat deviates from the first quota by more than 10%. Nine seats deviate from the projected quota by more than 3.5%: Barker, Bass, Bean, Canberra, Clark, Lyons, Makin, Mayo and Spence.
Firstly, South Australia.
The biggest deviations are in the northern suburbs of Adelaide. Spence is projected to be 12% over quota, while the neighbouring seat of Makin is almost 8% under quota. Mayo is also about 8% over, while Barker is almost 4% under quota. Pretty much every other seat is slightly under quota.
It seems most likely that Spence will shrink, and the surplus voters will mostly go into Makin. Mayo will also need to shrink, likely giving some of those surplus voters to Barker.
In Tasmania, the Hobart-area seat of Clark is projected to be 10% under quota. So Clark will need to grow. Franklin is 3.2% over quota, so can absorb some of that growth, but it will be necessary for Clark to expand north into parts of northern Hobart that are currently contained in Lyons. That central seat is almost 10% over the projected quota. Bass is also 4.4% under quota, so will also need to take more voters from Lyons.
Right now Lyons includes outer suburban areas in both the Hobart and Launceston areas, and they will be the first to be cut, making Lyons more of a rural seat. It’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t make Lyons more favourable for the Liberal Party.
There just aren’t that many different ways to shift populations in these small jurisdictions with a small number of electorates, and that is particularly true of the ACT. The growth in the ACT has been fastest in the south, with the southern electorate of Bean 7.6% over quota. While the northern seat of Fenner is slightly under quota, it’s the central seat of Canberra which is most under. So I expect we’ll see Canberra expand south, probably taking in parts of Woden or Weston Creek. Fenner can be mostly left alone, but it could gain some more of the Belconnen area to produce more equal numbers.
@Angas @JWood
I’d like to also add my appreciation to these amazing tools.
I used Angas’s last night to play around with Tasmania and ACT.
It really helps not having to flip between a spreadsheet and a map and remember which random SA1 number I forget to include in my calculations.
I’ve been in Europe on a career break for most of this year and just got back. It’s amazing to see how the tools have taken off in the time I’ve been away. Hopefully it’ll mean more voices get an opportunity to make submissions in the redistribution process.
I played around with jWoods qld federal page. Based on those numbers blai would lose Somerset. Making it much safer for labor. On the other note the deficits in the north would coalesce with surpluses on the Sunshine Coast. Resulting in massive changes to wide Bay. Fairfax and fisher. This would probably warrant a rename of bother Fairfax and wide Bay. Fisher would survive purely because its named after a pm. Although a case could be made to preserve wide Bay through renaming Flynn which takes in the wide Bay area. Since wide Bay is a federation name. In this case Flynn -> Wide Bay. Wide Bay -> Irwin. And Fairfax i would suggest naming after another woman hopefully Oodgeroo if the state redistribution releases that name.
Using @Angus’s tool (again, thanks), you can get a valid division with Hobart, Kingborough and Huon Valley and a valid division with Glenorchy and Clarence (including the parts currently in Lyons, alternatively parts of Brighton can be used). Lyons and Bass can be sorted by transferring Blackstone Heights and Prospect Vale to Bass.
If the commission is willing to remove the non-contiguity, they can do so cleanly
But they wont
If they were willing to do it they’d have done it already
Also great work Angus on the tool. I will probably make a submissions at the comments stage once i have had a look at the comments stage.
They go for minimal change and short of increasing the number of seats they won’t do it. I went for a partial removal of the non contiguous seat. If it’s done over time it would get done by doing minimal changes but moving those parts out. Hence why I moved Huon Valley into lyons(mostly) and then put everything west of the river north west into clark. I then moved Richmond tasman and Torrens into franklin.
For those enquiring there is a road that connects the Huon Valley to lyons with out going through clark.
Lonnavale road meets the Huon roads lonnavale thne connects to the Plenty Link which runs north’s to Plent Valley Road.
I think that if they are going to do it at all, they will do it all at once, rather than piecemeal
They dont seem to have the will to do radical change anymore except when seat numbers change. Case in point the nsw redistribution they should have abolished 2 seats and created another in the growth corridor in Western Sydney but went for piecemeal.
Probably not the right thread for it, but I too had another go at Queensland’s 2026 redistribution.
* Wright contracts to become a Scenic Rim and Logan seat, giving all its GC hinterland territory to the nearest GC electorate.
* Forde becomes basically the fourth Gold Coast seat, but still takes in a lot of Logan. It extends from the Logan River to the Coomera River, and out to Yarrabilba.
* Moreton pushes Oxley south and west, taking in Springfield and Ripley. If I were preparing a serious submission, I’d be renaming this seat to Hayden.
* Blair keeps Somerset, but Groom takes in Lockyer after giving virtually all of the Toowoomba regional area to Maranoa.
* Ryan expands into Brisbane, which expands into Lilley, which pushes Petrie over the Pine River.
* Longman pulls Fisher south, which pulls Fairfax south in turn.
* Wide Bay loses its namesake geographical feature as it now takes in Noosa, Nambour and Coolum. The old Wide Bay is split with a third going to Hinkler and another third to Flynn.
* Hinkler loses Bundaberg City to Flynn, but keeps Bargara and gains Maryborough, Tin Can Bay and K’Gari. This electorate would probably be renamed Wide Bay to preserve the Federation name. Flynn might become Hinkler in this scenario.
* Capricornia gains the Central Highlands and gives Collinsville and the Pioneer Valley to Dawson.
* By the time we finish north the changes are relatively minor. Leichhardt gains a block from Kennedy, Herbert gains Annandale from Dawson.
One in six voters has a new federal electorate.
It will be interesting to see what actually happens.
Ive done the following
Leichardt gains Tablelands from Kennedy.
Kennedy gains Winton and Diamantina from Maranoa. Northern Beaches from Herbert. Oonoonba Townsville South and Toseneath from Dawson.
Herbert gains Bohle Plains, Douglas and Condon from Kennedy and Anna dale from Dawson.
Dawson gains Clarmon, Collinsville walkerton and parts of broadsound plus all things north obviously inc Mackay from Capricornia.
Capricornia gains Central Highlands, Banana and Rockhampton from Flynn.
Hinkler remains unchanged. Since it can be worked around and is at quota.
Maranoa gains most of Toowoomba regional fromGroom along with most of Kingaroy from Flynn.
Groom takes in Lockyer Valley from Wright.
Mocrieff and McPherson do a territory swap. Everything south of mermaid Waters inclusive for everything north of Cottlesoe and Cheltenham Drive.
Fadden gains everything north of Smith Street from Moncrieff.
Wright gains everything west of the Pacific motorway thats south of the Coomera River from Fadden.
Forde gains Alberton and Ormeau from Fadden moving it to the Pimpana River. Gains Logan Village, Yarrabilla and parts of Jimboomba from Wright
Bowman gains Carbrook from zforde to top it up as Redlands City is not enough.
Rankin gains everything north of the Logan River down to schools road along with part of Boronia Heights from Forde. And Hillcrest from Wright.
Bonner takes everything south of Boundary road and old cleveland road from Griffith
Griffith takes everything north of Waterton Street, the railway line and Yeronga Street from Moreton.
Moreton gains the city of Brisbane from Rankin. Also everything east of Blunder Road and Blunder Creek from Oxley.
Oxley gains the rest of Sprinfield from Blair.
Blair gains the parts of Collingwood West of Goodna Creek up to Duncan Street. And west of Collingwood drive.
Ryan gains everything north of the Brisbane River from Blair. Gains everything west of Stewart road, waterworks road Musgrave road and hale street from Brisbane.
Brisbane gains the airport Everton park and parts of Stafford west of shandy Street from lilley
Lillley gains everything south of Roghan road from Petrie along with the City of Brisbane from Dickson.
Petrie gains a tiny bit of Kallngur to top it up from Longman.
Dickson gains the rest of Kallnagur and Narangba east of Burpengary road from Longman.
Longman gains Somerset from Blair and parts of Fisher west of the Bruce Highway.
Fisher gains everything east of the Bruce highway from Longman.
Fairfax gains everything west of the Bruce Highway and north of the Mooloolah River from Fisher
Flynn gains everything north of Gympie and some of the surrounds from Wide Bay. Given the namesake and a very large portion of WideBay are put into Flyyn you could justify preserving wide Bay as a federation name. Flynn name would be abolished.
I moved 17.60% of voters so about 1/6 as well
Isn’t that interesting. Two different ways, two different approaches. I appreciate the effort you went to explaining that.
Does your Flynn encircle your Hinkler? I assume it’s kept Gladstone, but you’ve said it gains territory north of Gympie, and that Hinkler is unchanged.
Methinks that some people here have too much time on their hands ……
Yes it does
Just as Kennedy encircles Herbert