The Australian Electoral Commission yesterday published the official statistics that will be used for federal redistributions in South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT. This gives us a bit more insight into what is likely to happen in those redistributions.
Electorates must be drawn so each seat is within 10% of average enrolment at the start of the process (in this case, August 2025), but also so that seats are within 3.5% of the average for a projected enrolment three-and-a-half years after the end of the process (in this case, April 2030). That second rule is much stricter, and thus ends up being more important in the drawing of new seats.
In a previous post, I looked at the population patterns based on June enrolment data. But we didn’t have projected data until yesterday afternoon. So for this post I will look at that second set of datapoints.
Not one seat deviates from the first quota by more than 10%. Nine seats deviate from the projected quota by more than 3.5%: Barker, Bass, Bean, Canberra, Clark, Lyons, Makin, Mayo and Spence.
Firstly, South Australia.
The biggest deviations are in the northern suburbs of Adelaide. Spence is projected to be 12% over quota, while the neighbouring seat of Makin is almost 8% under quota. Mayo is also about 8% over, while Barker is almost 4% under quota. Pretty much every other seat is slightly under quota.
It seems most likely that Spence will shrink, and the surplus voters will mostly go into Makin. Mayo will also need to shrink, likely giving some of those surplus voters to Barker.
In Tasmania, the Hobart-area seat of Clark is projected to be 10% under quota. So Clark will need to grow. Franklin is 3.2% over quota, so can absorb some of that growth, but it will be necessary for Clark to expand north into parts of northern Hobart that are currently contained in Lyons. That central seat is almost 10% over the projected quota. Bass is also 4.4% under quota, so will also need to take more voters from Lyons.
Right now Lyons includes outer suburban areas in both the Hobart and Launceston areas, and they will be the first to be cut, making Lyons more of a rural seat. It’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t make Lyons more favourable for the Liberal Party.
There just aren’t that many different ways to shift populations in these small jurisdictions with a small number of electorates, and that is particularly true of the ACT. The growth in the ACT has been fastest in the south, with the southern electorate of Bean 7.6% over quota. While the northern seat of Fenner is slightly under quota, it’s the central seat of Canberra which is most under. So I expect we’ll see Canberra expand south, probably taking in parts of Woden or Weston Creek. Fenner can be mostly left alone, but it could gain some more of the Belconnen area to produce more equal numbers.
Preity much exactly sums up what I’m looking at Ben.
I started working on South Australia and have basically done that, although I’ve added Mitcham council ban info Boothby too.
I think in the ACT, Canberra cleanly takes the eastern part of Woden, Hume and Symonston, although I might look at what a shift in the Molonglo Valley looks like before submitting my “idea”.
Finally Tasmania, I think it depends on whether it’s viable to try to fix the split in Franklin, and move Clark southward. I’m not sure, as we know, and you mentioned in your previous article, how averse to majority changes the Committees seem to be lately.
Looking forward to seeing ideas from everyone.
The non contiguous seat has to be fixed
Thanks Ben. Any reason to suggest Canberra would gain from Bean in Woden or Weston Creek rather than Molonglo Valley? Molonglo Valley is arguably more connected to Canberra – Cotter Rd and Coppins Crossing Rd are the major arteries and both go to Canberra rather than south to other parts of Bean.
I suspect Makin will become stronger for Labor and absorb parts of Spence. Spence will weaken for Labor but not to the extent it will be under threat.
I think Kingston should absorb Aldinga from Mayo maybe even Sellicks beach. Kingston can move Southwards.
Canberra should be drawn to the Molong river
And Hindmarsh drive solved. Leave fenner as is. Solved act in 5 secs
Agree Nimalan, Spence although being considered as a replacement for the old Wakefield district is more like the previous seat of Bonython that was a Labor stronghold centred around Virginia, Parafield Gardens and Munno Parra.
Spence does extend further north to Gawler, but it now has the same sort of demographics as its neighbouring suburbs and is no longer the rural township it once was.
An expansion of Parliament may well see the two previous seats (old Wakefield and Port Adelaide) re-created as all existing seats contract.