Today’s booth map covers two neighbouring seats in southern Sydney, both of which flipped from Liberal to Labor in 2025.
The seat of Banks covers south-western parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown coucnil area and a majority of the Georges River council area, on the northern side of the Georges River. The seat of Hughes covers parts of the Sutherland and Liverpool council areas on the southern side of the Georges River, but has recently added suburbs in the Campbelltown area to the west of that river. Those changes significantly cut the Liberal margin in the seat.
Sizeable 2PP swings to Labor have taken place across most of both seats, although swings to Labor were much smaller in the parts of Campbelltown previously contained in safe Labor seats.
The Liberal Party continues to win the 2PP in booths on the riverfront in Banks, as has been the pattern for quite some time, while Labor wins booths further north. The Liberal Party still wins Hughes booths around Menai, but Labor did surprisingly well around Sutherland, with around 60% of the 2PP vote. Labor narrowly won booths in the Liverpool parts of Hughes and won the Campbelltown areas with ease.
The Labor primary vote swing map is fascinating for how different the swings were in different areas. The Labor primary vote actually went backwards across the Campbelltown parts of Hughes, increased substantially in the Liverpool parts, and increased enormously in the Sutherland Shire parts. Labor’s primary vote went up 27% in Como.
This seems to be explained primarily by the absence of a teal independent. Teal independents Georgia Steele and Linda Seymour both stood in Hughes in 2022, and they had no equivalent this year. The two of them polled 38% in Como. Generally they polled less well in the Liverpool part of the seat.
It is also remarkable how consistent the Greens swing is across the region. The Greens have been generally gaining ground in seats where the party hasn’t traditionally been strong.
By his map adding parts of campbelltown did not effect the result in hughes
Labor did well in booths that coincided with Heathcote state electorate
While these two seats were recovered by Labor. This was a high tide election so they are still Liberal leaning seats under the Cook PVI compared to state and national result. David Moncrieff is only about 30 so he has no memory of Hughes being a Labor seat. He recently met with the last Labor MP for Hughes Robert Tickner. The two Labor MPs for Hughes before 1996 were both Ministers. David Moncrieff and Zhi Soon may become great local champions but these seats are still unlikely to see Labor Ministers gain
Wouldn’t be surprised if the libs try and recover these two seats especially after 3moreyearsof albo
@ John
Offcourse the Libs will try and recover the seats there is really no pathway for them to win Goverment without Banks and Hughes. In the past they may have been able to win seats like Lilley and Moreton which are much less likely now same with Kingston. Fraser did not need Hughes and Howard did not need Banks but that is not the case now. Conversely, Capricornia/Page is not a seat really seats that Labor needs these days to the same extent.
Agree John and nimalan, other critical seats for the coalition to recover as their top tier targets would be ones such as Aston, Menzies, forde, dickson and petrie.
Essentially all the outer suburban seats that Labor picked up at this election and should never have been lost in the first place.
Even Kevin Rudd in his 2007 victory never won Aston, Menzies, Hughes or Dickson
To be fair Menzies and hughes were caused by The redistribution on the old boundaries they would have been retained. Aston was lost due to incumbency of labor due to several factors at the by election and Dickson I believe people were sending a message to PD. And in 2007 the Libs didn’t stab themselves at the 11th your and trump wasn’t on the ballot.
Dickson would have been lost in 2007 under the current boundaries. Dickson has always been a marginal that probably just tipped Liberal on Peter Dutton’s profile but the swing was very big this time and the margin substantial for Ali France, who now has a chance to build a profile. Eastern Melbourne has meanwhile become much less Liberal friendly since 2007. Hughes is probably the one which should be most obviously a Liberal seat when they are in a better position but that doesn’t necessarily translate to an easy pickup either.
Banks and Petrie are the only 2 seats that Labor lost in 2013 but regained in 2025. Kevin Rudd had a sizable victory in 2007 but it wasn’t anything as the 2025 Labor victory. Seats like Dickson and Hughes were close in 2007.
There was not much campaigning by Labor, especially in Hughes, and their candidates were chosen relatively late in my opinion. Zhi Soon had more momentum due to his previous attempt and a visit from the PM at prepoll. David Moncreiff’s win was a bigger surprise. Imagine if both had several months of leadtime and campaign resources.
The swings to the Greens in the northern suburbs of Banks were an extension of the swings in Watson and Barton. Suburbs north of the T8 Airport Line tend to be lower-income, more likely to rent and have large Lebanese/Muslim cohorts. In fact, it was the swing to the Greens that helped drive up the Labor 2CP.