Today’s booth map covers two neighbouring seats in southern Sydney, both of which flipped from Liberal to Labor in 2025.
The seat of Banks covers south-western parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown coucnil area and a majority of the Georges River council area, on the northern side of the Georges River. The seat of Hughes covers parts of the Sutherland and Liverpool council areas on the southern side of the Georges River, but has recently added suburbs in the Campbelltown area to the west of that river. Those changes significantly cut the Liberal margin in the seat.
Sizeable 2PP swings to Labor have taken place across most of both seats, although swings to Labor were much smaller in the parts of Campbelltown previously contained in safe Labor seats.
The Liberal Party continues to win the 2PP in booths on the riverfront in Banks, as has been the pattern for quite some time, while Labor wins booths further north. The Liberal Party still wins Hughes booths around Menai, but Labor did surprisingly well around Sutherland, with around 60% of the 2PP vote. Labor narrowly won booths in the Liverpool parts of Hughes and won the Campbelltown areas with ease.
The Labor primary vote swing map is fascinating for how different the swings were in different areas. The Labor primary vote actually went backwards across the Campbelltown parts of Hughes, increased substantially in the Liverpool parts, and increased enormously in the Sutherland Shire parts. Labor’s primary vote went up 27% in Como.
This seems to be explained primarily by the absence of a teal independent. Teal independents Georgia Steele and Linda Seymour both stood in Hughes in 2022, and they had no equivalent this year. The two of them polled 38% in Como. Generally they polled less well in the Liverpool part of the seat.
It is also remarkable how consistent the Greens swing is across the region. The Greens have been generally gaining ground in seats where the party hasn’t traditionally been strong.
By his map adding parts of campbelltown did not effect the result in hughes
Labor did well in booths that coincided with Heathcote state electorate
While these two seats were recovered by Labor. This was a high tide election so they are still Liberal leaning seats under the Cook PVI compared to state and national result. David Moncrieff is only about 30 so he has no memory of Hughes being a Labor seat. He recently met with the last Labor MP for Hughes Robert Tickner. The two Labor MPs for Hughes before 1996 were both Ministers. David Moncrieff and Zhi Soon may become great local champions but these seats are still unlikely to see Labor Ministers gain
Wouldn’t be surprised if the libs try and recover these two seats especially after 3moreyearsof albo