Friday 11:51am – Joseph Youhana’s preferences have just been distributed, and Carly Moore has gained over 58% of these votes, with just 16% going to Labor.
The new standings are:
- Abdo (ALP) 36.6% (+2.2%)
- Moore (IND) 25.6% (+8.1%)
- Ghani (LIB) 21.2% (+2.2%)
- Garcha (GRN) 16.7% (+1.4%)
Carly Moore’s chances of winning now look very good. She needs just 64.4% of the remaining preferences to win.
We don’t have a lot of great parallels ofr this race. The best one I can consider is Dai Le in Fowler in 2022. She likewise won a seat off a new Labor candidate in a multicultural area with Liberal preferences but not with Greens preferences. Moore is an ex-Labor mayor while Le was an ex-Liberal, which may help her a bit with the Greens.
Le gained 71.93% of Liberal preferences and 35.53% of Greens preferences. The distribution of preferences is slightly different because these candidates have gained other preferences through the count. In Fowler, 69.14% of Liberal preferences flowed to Dai Le in the distribution. For the Greens, they were knocked out before the UAP and flowed 52.5% to Labor, 24.8% to Le, 13.5% to Liberal and 9.3% to UAP.
If I apply 71.9% preferences to Moore to the Liberal vote and 35.5% to the Greens vote, she ends up losing with 46.7%.
But perhaps Moore will do better than Dai Le did? She seems more likely to peel away Greens voters, and apparently the Greens favoured her on the how-to-vote at pre-poll before changing their mind on election day.
This looks very close.
Thursday 12:55pm – Preferences from the Muslim independent Moslih have been distributed, and the Greens have overtaken Youhana. Youhana will now be knocked out.
The new standings are:
- Abdo (ALP) 34.4% (+1.0%)
- Ghani (LIB) 18.9% (+0.4%)
- Moore (IND) 17.5% (+1.1%)
- Garcha (GRN) 15.3% (+5.1%)
- Youhana (IND) 13.9% (+0.7%)
Youhana’s how-to-vote recommends preferences to Moore, so it seems likely that she will overtake the Liberal and stay ahead of the Greens, but really we just have to keep watching.
Wednesday 5pm – The count has now been updated with all votes for the One Nation candidate distributed to the next choice. Carly Moore picked up 1.7%, Labor 0.6%, Liberal 1.4% and Youhana 1.1%.
The next exclusion will be Muslim independent Moslih, who is on 8.2%. The Greens are on 10.2%, and Youhana on 13.2%. It is possible his preferences could push the Greens ahead of Youhana, but I doubt they will flow that strongly.
Wednesday 1:28pm – The fifth elimination has now been concluded, with Legalise Cannabis preferences being distributed. Moore has picked up another 1% of the formal vote, up to 14.7%, Youhana has picked up 0.2%, Labor is up another 0.7%, and the Liberal is up 0.2%.
One Nation will be excluded next, with 5.6% to distribute.
6:56pm – Two more counts have been conducted, distributing Family First and Citizens Party preferences. Legalise Cannabis are next. The full stats for the four lead candidates are at the bottom, but in short Carly Moore has picked up 1.8%, Labor has picked up 1.6%, Youhana 1.1% and Liberals 1.2%.
25.4% of the vote is sitting with the other four candidates:
- Greens – 9.1%
- Moslih – 7.6%
- One Nation – 5.0%
- Legalise Cannabis – 3.7%
Greens preferences flow to Moslih (who will already be out), then Youhana, then Labor, then Moore, so it is entirely possible that if many voters follow that how-to-vote it could still disrupt things. Moslih was endorsed by Muslim Votes Matter, who published a HTV ordering Greens, then Labor, then Youhana, then Moore, then Liberal. Moslih published his own how-to-vote card, but it had all the candidates polling more than him in the same order. So it is quite possible Moore could do poorly from voters following how to vote cards. But many will make up their own mind, and a popular independent may continue to attract more preferences.
Original post, 2:48pm Tuesday – The AEC has now commenced the distribution of preferences for the seat of Calwell. Normally the AEC does not publish distribution of preference data until the count has concluded, but in recognition of the great deal of public interest the AEC has published a page where they will post the latest DoP data after each round of the count.
There are 13 candidates running, so there will be eleven counts. So far the first three counts have been conducted, with independent candidates Peach and Ragupathy and Trumpet of Patriots candidates Issa already excluded with their votes distributed. Family First candidate Bengtsson is next in line.
You would expect each round of the count to take longer, as more and more votes need to be moved.
This table shows the share of the vote for the four leading candidates on the primary vote and each subsequent round:
Independent candidate Carly Moore is off to a strong start. She has already increased her primary vote by 0.8%, whereas fellow independent Joseph Youhana is only up 0.2%, Labor is up 0.5%, and the Liberal is up 0.4%.
The first question is whether Joseph Youhana can overtake Carly Moore and make the 3CP. Right now that looks pretty unlikely, as Moore is widening her lead over Youhana.
Moore right now looks quite plausible to overtake the Liberals, and if so I think she would probably be in a position to gain a strong flow of preferences and potentially beat Labor.
I’ll keep this post updated as we learn more.
I’ve seen posts online saying that Labor has got this in the bag because scrutineers are saying most Greens votes will be distributed to Labor.
There’s probably less donkey voting amongst Greens voters. Some may be rusted-on Greens voters who put 2. Labor, because it’s their preferred major party or because most HTV cards elsewhere and at previous elections say “2. Labor”. They may not necessarily follow the HTV card in order from start to finish. I also guess that there are pro-Palestine voters who ranked Labor highly because they feel it’s better the devil they know than the devils they don’t.
I don’t think Moore will get a huge boost from the distribution of preferences when the Greens are excluded. This is despite benefitting heaps from excluded minor parties and independents. This was thanks to her pole position on the ballot. She didn’t run on a teal or pro-Palestine platform.
The strong preference flow from Moslih to the Greens probably suggests either: his voters voting on ideology or a high rate of adhearance to either his HTV or the MVM HTV.
Yes I did state this earlier it would have been better is youhana had beaten the greens as he would of got greens preferences
After Yohana’s exclusion, the current standing of candidates are:
ALP: 36.59%
Moore: 25.56%
LIB: 21.20%
Green: 16.65%
Ben mentioned in Folwer at the 2022 federal election, which was also a contest between Labor and a conservative independent, when the Greens were excluded, preferences flew 52.5% to Labor, 24.8% to Le, 13.5% to Liberal and 9.3% to UAP. Assuming Greens 4CP preferences flow 55% to Labor, 25% to Moore and 20% to Liberal, I got a 3CP of:
ALP: 45.75%
Moore: 29.72%
LIB: 24.53%
In Fowler in 2022, 69.14% of Liberal preferences flew to Dai Le at the exclusion of the Liberal Party. Asssuming 70% of Liberal preferences flew to Moore at the exclusion of the Liberal Party, I got a Labor vs Moore 2CP of 53.1% to Labor. Labor will retain Calwell, but with the lowest primary vote, 2CP vote and probably notional 2PP vote in the seat’s history.
Joseph, this election showed it is not just the Liberals having issues with ‘teal’ independents. Labor can also have problems with community independents challenging them, with Bean and Fremantle joining Calwell as ‘close calls’ that could have ended up like Fowler 2022 had Labor’s vote been slightly lower.