LNP 4.2%
Incumbent MP
Bert van Manen, since 2010.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Forde covers parts of Logan City, an urban area between the City of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Forde also covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast, but most of the population lives in Logan.
History
Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.
Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.
Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.
The Liberal Party’s Kay Elson won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election. In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing.
The LNP’s Bert van Manen won the seat back in 2010 with a 5% swing. In 2013, Labor’s original candidate, Des Hardman, was replaced by former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie very close to the election. The high-profile candidate selection didn’t help Labor, with van Manen increasing his margin by 2.8%. Van Manen has been re-elected three times more since.
Assessment
Forde is a marginal LNP seat. It’s the sort of seat that Labor won when they won power in 2007 but didn’t win in 2022, when Labor performed much more weakly in Queensland. A resurgent federal Labor in Queensland would be eyeing off this seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bert van Manen | Liberal National | 34,920 | 36.9 | -6.6 |
| Rowan Holzberger | Labor | 26,497 | 28.0 | -1.5 |
| Jordan Hall | Greens | 9,319 | 9.8 | +1.1 |
| Seschelle Matterson | One Nation | 7,578 | 8.0 | -3.8 |
| Roxanne O’Halloran | United Australia | 7,485 | 7.9 | +3.9 |
| Christopher Greaves | Independent | 2,973 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Tobby Sutherland | Liberal Democrats | 2,668 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Linda McCarthy | Animal Justice | 2,444 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Samuel Holland | TNL | 728 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 6,884 | 6.8 | +2.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bert van Manen | Liberal National | 51,311 | 54.2 | -4.4 |
| Rowan Holzberger | Labor | 43,301 | 45.8 | +4.4 |
Booths have been divided into five parts. Booths in the Gold Coast council area are grouped as ‘South’. The remainder have been grouped as Central, North, East and West.
The LNP won a majority of the vote in three out of five areas, ranging from 52.1% in the west to 57.1% in the north. Labor managed 50.6% in the east and 53.4% in the centre. The LNP also polled 56% of the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.8% in the south to 12.6% in the north, but just 8.6% of the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.7 | 46.6 | 10,830 | 11.4 |
| South | 10.8 | 57.0 | 9,548 | 10.1 |
| East | 10.9 | 49.4 | 6,987 | 7.4 |
| North | 12.6 | 57.1 | 5,737 | 6.1 |
| West | 11.2 | 52.1 | 3,553 | 3.8 |
| Pre-poll | 8.6 | 56.3 | 33,955 | 35.9 |
| Other votes | 9.3 | 54.6 | 24,002 | 25.4 |
Election results in Forde at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
2022 candidate Rowan Holzberger is running again for Labor
Interesting how Labor went on a spree of candidate announcements last week in seats like Forde, Ryan, Brisbane and Dickson. I do think Bonner is more winnable but there’s no candidate.
I’m more surprised that they didn’t announce a Flynn candidate, given that Albo said he was in Queensland to talk about the Coalition’s nuclear plans & Flynn being a marginal seat with a proposed plant to be placed within it, but I guess it ultimately just comes down to whether or not they’ve been able to actually find a candidate yet.
I think the seats they have chosen candidates for in Queensland so far are largely where their focus will be here and don’t really surprise me. No candidate in Bonner yet is odd given Forde has one but it’s easier and quicker to figure out when you’re just running the previous candidate again. While Dutton is the LNP leader (and Albanese is Labor leader, actually) I don’t think Flynn and Longman for example are winnable for Labor. And Ali France running again in Dickson is just a simple and quick solution for a seat I’m sure they’d be ecstatic to win but nonetheless doubt their chances there.
Even with Dutton as LNP leader I think Labor should really put a concerted effort into snagging a Brisbane seat or two on top of a good run at Leichardt given they’re facing likely losses in WA and have seats such as Lyons, Lingiari, Gilmore and Paterson in the other states to worry about as well. The whole “write QLD off” idea a lot of people have is an incredibly grave mistake and will come back to bite them over and over.
@ Laine
Labor will play defense in Blair and Leichardt is best chance of a gain, i think they will only try one at best maybe Brisbane, Bonner or Forde.
They aren’t winning Forde.
LNP hold, with a reasonable swing to the LNP.
Forde could be a Labor gain because of the rapid population growth in Park Ridge and Logan Reserve. A lot of young families moving into that area.
There might be a tougher vetting process for Labor candidates elsewhere where there are lower margins but still a tough hill to climb e.g. Flynn, Bonner. Labor might have decided to write off Forde and so they preselected the guy as before.
Seems either Labor underperformed in the Logan Parts of Forde or Labor overperformed in the Logan Parts of the neighboring Rankin or a maybe a little bit of both as the communities within the Rankin-Forde border has on average a roughly 10% difference on the TPP .
Negligible swing here. Don’t see it swinging much either way. LNP are not making this a 8-10% margin, NP, this is not 2019.
@Daniel T I wasn’t thinking 8-10% I was thinking maybe a 3-4% swing (57-58% margin). Around average or a little bit over average compared to the rest of the state/country.
The Redbridge MRP poll had this division move closer to Labor into “Too Close to Call”. One of the only in the country trending towards Labor rather than away.
I imagine that says something about the politics of the residents in the new housing estates, both in the northern Gold Coast and in the southwest of Logan. Does that have implications for Logan and Coomera at the upcoming state election?
@SEQ Observer can you link this poll please?
Also I still think this’ll be an LNP seat, with a swing of about 2-3% to the LNP.
I dont personally think Forde will fall in 2025 i think high interest rates will have an impact in a mortgage belt seat like this. However, longer term i think Labor will struggle to form government without this. Even if Higgins was retained, i dont see it being a long term prospect nor seats like Macnamara or Tangney. If Labor is unable to pick up coal seats in Central QLD and riverside Brisbane seats than Suburban Brisbane is where they need to look for gains to offset other loses.
@SEQ that report is vastly inaccurate it doesnt take into account any other opinion poll which is showing a swing away from labor. its not like they conducted a sample of every seat so i wouldnt read much into that report
@NP it wasnt an opinion poll just a report they made across the whole country i would see it as accurate
Seems either Labor underperformed in the Logan Parts of Forde or Labor overperformed in the Logan Parts of the neighboring Rankin or a maybe a little bit of both as the communities within the Rankin-Forde border has on average a roughly 10% difference on the TPP .
I’m rebridge simply uses a nationwide poll and demographic modwllong to predict the outcome of seats which is vastly inaccurate. Though I do believe poll bludger avg of giving the coalition 69 and labor 68 with the greens on 3 and others on 10 is in line with what I’ve been stating will be the outcome. I think baaed on these nukbers labor will form govt with the lefr wing teals and rhe greens as I dont believe the coalition can get the numbers without a minimumof 71 seats
@Marh there is also a demographic divide. This is the whiter seat while Rankin is the more multicultural seat. This does include some housing estates but also some working-class suburbs in Logan but Rankin is almost solidly working-class.
@john.. I posted re this on Whitlam page. To go from a Global figure to a specific seat call is not possible this degree of precision does nor exist
I got my hands on the poll. @Nether Portal, Kos posted it on his X yesterday.
The most interesting part was that it doesn’t quite look like a trend towards Labor in Forde per se, but the continuation of high primary votes directed away from the two major parties, which has made the race too uncertain.
Wright was similar but with a much higher first-preference vote for the LNP. But with Labor starting from under 20%. This puts Wright into non-classic territory again (like 2019). If there is any notable swing to the Greens in the Hinterland or in the new housing estates, the Greens could leapfrog Labor, especially if they attract a lot of preference from a crowded micro-party and independents field. Unlikely though because these will probably be right wing micro-parties. And ONP might have a lot of runway to start with a high enough first-preference vote.
Wide Bay was another that looked ripe for a non-classic 2CP outcome but I imagine that its non-classic votes would split between a Sandy Bolton-style, progressive, Noosa community independent and a right-wing micro party candidate (popular in Gympie and Maryborough). And consequently, neither snowballing enough to leapfrog either of the major parties.
@SEQ Observer thanks, I’ll check it out.
To @Nicholas point regarding the state implications, particularly for Logan and Coomera at the upcoming state election. I’m not sure, especially after drilling into the primary vote expectation of the MRP report. Of course, firstly the usual disclaimers about Federal and State being two different things. Disclaimer aside, it’s probably comforting for Labor’s incumbents in Macalister and Logan. But still doubtful regarding any swing towards Labor in Coomera and Theodore.
Regardless, some more applicable Redbridge state-polling was released by 9 News Queensland yesterday evening that painted a similar picture to the MRP and suggested that QLD Labor was beginning to recover in polling. Policies like 50c fares was suggested as factor aiding their recovery.
I would also say that Gold Coast Labor people have been really disciplined and have not broken kayfabe once in their purported high hopes in Coomera and Theodore all the way from 2020 and right through to all of this terrible polling. Maybe they’ve got a better picture at the division level to stoke this confidence. I’m personally skeptical.
It’s also obvious that policies like 50c fares are specifically targeted at divisions like Macalister, Theodore, Coomera, Gaven, etc. But I’m again skeptical about Labor’s expected swing on the Gold Coast.
@ Nether Portal to calculate Forde
State seats
1. All of Macalsiter
2. Parts of Coomera, Logan, Springwood, Theodore and Woodridge
Booths
1. Beenleigh
2. Bethana
3. Boronia Heights
4. Canowinda (external booth)
5. Carbrook
6. Cedar Creek
7. Coomera Springs
8. Cornubia
9. Eagleby
10. Edens Landing
12. Kimberley Park (Shailer Park)
13. Loganholme
14. Loganlea
15. Logan Reserve
16. Logan Village
17. Marsden
18. Meadowbrook
19. Mount Warren Park
20. Norfolk Village (Ormeau)
21. Ormeau
22. Oxenford (external booth)
23.Park Ridge
24. Pimpampa
21. Shailer Park
22. Slacks Creek
23. Tansey Park (Tanah Merah)
24. Upper Coomera
25.Highland Reserve (Upper Coomera)
26. Waterford
27. Windaroo
28. Windaroo Valley
@Nimalan thanks, here is the calculation:
State level TPP here (2024):
* LNP: 50.3%
* Labor: 49.7%
Labor did 3.9% better on the state level, and my guess is that crime is the reason the gap between the federal and state Labor TPP is much smaller south of the Brisbane River than north of it. The gap is about 8% in the Moreton Bay seats but on the South Side and in Ipswich it’s much smaller.
Nevertheless, this is one of just two Brisbane seats I’ve calculated that are held by the LNP on both the federal and state level. This one is ultra-marginal, but the LNP’s strong performance in Coomera was enough to overcome the Labor TPP in the areas they did well in.
@ Nether Portal
I think after Gaven, Coomera is the best prospect for a second Gold Coast seat it does not have much waterfront or Canal estates except for Jacobs Well.I am keen for you as a Gold Coast resident to share some demographic insights 🙂
@Nimalan I agree but it will all depend on the redistribution. The areas with more renters and growth areas are more Labor-voting but overall it is a conservative-leaning swing seat. Alberton is by far the most conservative booth in Coomera.
67.7% of Coomera residents were born in Australia, making it one of the more white Gold Coast seats. Gold Coast voting tends to be based on geography and wealth though as opposed to ethnicity, since while we don’t have a breakdown of votes by ethnicity, it would be safe to assume that the Asians in Southport and Surfers Paradise have similar voting trends to the Europeans there. I say that it is less ethnic-based because unlike elsewhere where it’s the more ethnic suburbs that vote Labor, the most ethnic parts of the Gold Coast are LNP-voting (though so are many white areas, e.g Mudgeeraba, though that includes some semi-rural areas).
Also, the Gold Coast’s inner-city is the most conservative of any major city in Australia because it is beachside and affluent (while inner-city Sydney and Perth extend out to the sea and thus have conservative/teal whole areas as well as conservative/teal pockets, the inner-city of Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide doesn’t so there are mostly just conservative/teal pockets there and those are fading, at least in Melbourne). Other conservative CBDs I can think of are those of the Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Darwin which are coastal, but in Cairns the most conservative areas are in the beachside Northern Suburbs (e.g Clifton Beach).
Overall, I agree this is Labor’s best shot at a second Gold Coast seat, with Currumbin in third, but only time will tell.
@ NP
Good points. I agree that CALD residents in Southport and Surfers Paradise will vote Liberal they are more high SES like CALD residents in the Hills District. I dont think Gold Coast attracts low income CALD residents like Logan or Inala. Also agree it depends on redistribution. Areas like Jacobs Well and Alberton will remain very conservative they are away from the main road/rail corridor. I think Currumbin will become harder for Labor over time as it contains Surf Beaches and as more baby boomers retire they will move there from elsewhere. Also Coomera is more important as it overlaps with Forde which is a seat in the long term Labor needs to win (i agree they probably will not win in 2025) while McPherson is unwinnable so Labor has less incentive to win Currumbin as there is no Federal benefit.
@Nimalan true, I would say
Gold Coast CALD residents are mostly either Asian (usually Chinese or Japanese) or European. There is also a noticeable Brazilian community, perhaps because the climate is similar (São Paulo lines up with the Sunshine Coast I think). Having been to Brazil, São Paulo and Rio are similar to Queensland in that it is coastal and is very well known for its beaches. It’s also a similar climate to South East Queensland whereas Recife and Salvador are more tropical like Cairns.
Actually, now that I think about it, I would confidently say the Japanese on the Gold Coast are mostly conservatives. The reason the Gold Coast has lots of Japanese people is A. direct flights and B. business relations (rich Japanese businessmen have heavily invested in the Gold Coast since the 80s and big Japanese companies operate here). There are also lots of Japanese tourists on the Gold Coast.
So basically the Chinese and Japanese community of the Gold Coast is mostly affluent.
According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:
* 49% of Coomera
* 47% of Logan
* 100% of Macalister
* 23% of Springwood
* 26% of Theodore
* 65% of Waterford
I’ll move to the Waterford thread to raise a point I had.
the areas north and west of the logan river should be shifted into rankin and wright at the redistribution
This electorate has my nomination for worst boundaries in SEQ. (Yes, I actually think it’s even more egregious than Wright.)
il be looking to fix that up at the next redistribution
ABC has this as a Labor gain. But Gold Coast Bulletin has noted there is estimated 8000 postals to count. It was reported the numbers on the early count is not trending enough for Bert van Manen to chase down Rowan Holzberger lead.
An understated factor for Labor’s success here is the Prime Minister incumbency advantage. I think this plays well in low-information and disengaged divisions with busy working constituents like Forde. Same goes for other similar outer-urban divisions like Petrie.
Think reasoning along the lines of “who’s the Prime Minister again? Oh yeah, Albanese. What party is he from again? Yeah that’s right. Well who’s the other guy? Oh him? Yeah no thanks”
Forde has been relatively bellwether and I think the Federal entrenchment of the Coalition post-Rudd has advantaged Van Manen. But now they’ve lost their advantage of incumbency, voters have since floated over to Albanese now that he is recognised as Prime Minister.
Further to my point, in divisions like this, I think indicators like Preferred Prime Minister are a better predictor of how voters will swing – rather than state-wide or national TPP.
I’m gonna make a prediction that the LNP will regain this in 2028
Polls shift like the breeze.
Three years out, and still we guess.
Tomorrow laughs loud.
There was a strong shift towards Labor after all the things went laborsway so it should go back to the libs
People keep saying X seat will go back to Liberal, as we’ve heard so many times with seats like Tangney, Curtin, Bennelong etc. Three weeks is already a long time in politics let alone three years. Who knows what will happen by then? There’s no point predicting seats that will definitely go back to the Liberals in 2028 when we’re not even halfway through 2025 yet.
Labor is pretty much at its maximum seat count now. There’s no conceivable scenario where they can do better
Second thing is there maybe a sophomore surge in Forde with a Labor incumbent same in Petrie. Petrie and Forde were surprise gains so did not get as much campaigning while in 2028. Labor will make in an effort and may pork barrell these seats. Forde and Petrie are generally bellwether seats.
people couldn’t make correct predictions 3 days before this election but now they are confident about what is going to happen in 3 years
@John everyone said that about Labor between 2022-2025. I think they’re probably at their peak seat-wise but it wouldn’t surprise me if they don’t do worse come 2028. The Coalition (if it’s back and still exists in 2028) on the other hand will take at least another term or two before they get anywhere near being competitive if the next term of government is steady as she goes.
Today in The Australian, Luke Howarth has gone over his thoughts on how the election campaign went for him. He also hasn’t ruled out recontesting the next election, and acknowledged by many as a very good campaigner, although admitting he didn’t take his Labor opponent Emma Comer too seriously due to believing in the party’s flawed polling (and failing to poll his own seat) and the candidate being announced at the very last minute.
As for Labor being able to go even further, I would say this – nothing is impossible – Longman being a near miss for Labor after all. Before the election, people were thinking (myself included) that the best result for Labor would be a small majority – instead it was a massive majority. And yes, like Tangney before, a good local member can entrench themselves and buck state or nationwide trends against their party – the Liberal equivalent is Phillip Thompson in Herbert – now the safest Liberal seat (was Labor held back in 2016) – if the same were to occur in Forde or Petrie, they might end up tougher to retake than other Labor seats with higher margins.
@tommo they said the same thing about the libs in victoria now they are on the verge of being able to win the 2026 election but il tendatively agree they cant win the 2028 election at this stage i think it will be similar to 2013-2016.
This flew under the radar. It was reminiscent of Kevin 07.
I believe the Labor campaign was a bit surprised by Forde and similarly, Hughes. The polling, especially Liberal polling, and maybe a lot of us overestimated the Liberals’ popularity in the outer suburbs and mortgage belt.