LIB 2.5% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Paul Fletcher, since 2009.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Bradfield covers the Ku-ring-gai council area and most of the Willoughby council area. Key suburbs include Wahroonga, St Ives, Pymble, Turramurra, Killara, Lindfield, Gordon, Roseville, Castle Cove, Chatswood, Willoughby and Artarmon.
Redistribution
Bradfield shifted south, taking in about one third of the abolished seat of North Sydney. Specifically Bradfield took in most of the Willoughby council area, including Artarmon, Castlecrag, Middle Cove, Naremburn, Northbridge and Willoughby. The suburb of Hornsby was moved from Bradfield to Berowra, so the electoral boundary now mostly follows the local government boundary between Hornsby and Ku-ring-gai. The seats of North Sydney and Bradfield both had a teal independent in the final two-candidate-preferred count, and the changes reduced the Liberal margin against those independents from 4.2% to 2.5%.
History
The seat was created for the 1949 election, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.
It was first won by former Prime Minister Billy Hughes in 1949. Hughes had been an MP since he won election to the NSW colonial parliament in 1894, and had then held the federal seats of West Sydney, Bendigo and North Sydney. He had originally served as a Labor prime minister before leaving the party over the issue of conscription and leading the new Nationalist party. He eventually ended up in Robert Menzies’ Liberal Party and was the last remaining member of the first federal Parliameent to hold a seat.
Hughes died in office in 1952, and the ensuing by-election was won by state Liberal MP Harry Turner.
Turner held the seat for the next twenty-two years, and never rose to a ministerial role during twenty years of Coalition government. He retired at the 1974 election, and was succeeded by David Connolly.
Connolly also held Bradfield for twenty-two years, and was expected to take on a ministerial role after the 1996 election, but lost preselection to Brendan Nelson, former president of the Australian Medical Association.
Nelson won Bradfield in 1996 and quickly rose through the ranks of the Liberal government, joining the cabinet following the 2001 election and serving first as Minister for Education and then Minister for Defence.
Following the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Brendan Nelson was elected Leader of the Opposition, narrowly defeating Malcolm Turnbull in the party room. His leadership was troubled by low poll ratings and being undermined by Turnbull and his supporters, and Nelson lost a leadership spill in September 2008. Nelson resigned from Parliament in 2009, triggering a by-election in Bradfield.
The 2009 Bradfield by-election was held in December, and was a contest between the Liberal Party and the Greens, with the ALP declining to stand a candidate, along with a field of twenty other candidates, including nine candidates for the Christian Democratic Party. While the Greens substantially increased their vote, Liberal candidate Paul Fletcher comfortably retained the seat. Fletcher has been re-elected five times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Paul Fletcher is not running for re-election.
Assessment
If the teal independents were to pick up an extra seat in 2025, Bradfield is a very clear frontrunner. The seat has taken in about a third of an abolished seat that has been represented by an independent for the last three years, and the previous form of Bradfield had a strong independent of a similar style and political ideology in 2022.
Nicolette Boele has been actively campaigning for Bradfield since her 2022 defeat. She will be a serious contender, but the particular circumstances that led to independents winning in northern Sydney in 2022 is not quite so present now.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 43,562 | 45.0 | -15.3 | 43.7 |
| Nicolette Boele | Independent | 20,198 | 20.9 | +20.9 | 22.9 |
| David Brigden | Labor | 16,902 | 17.5 | -3.7 | 17.7 |
| Martin Cousins | Greens | 8,960 | 9.3 | -4.4 | 8.6 |
| Janine Kitson | Independent | 3,018 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 2.4 |
| Rob Fletcher | United Australia | 2,496 | 2.6 | +0.7 | 2.3 |
| Michael Lowe | One Nation | 1,568 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 3,616 | 3.6 | -0.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 52,447 | 54.2 | 52.5 | |
| Nicolette Boele | Independent | 44,257 | 45.8 | 47.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Paul Fletcher | Liberal | 54,685 | 56.5 | -10.0 | 56.2 |
| David Gordon Brigden | Labor | 42,019 | 43.5 | +10.0 | 43.8 |
Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places in the Ku-ring-gai council area have been split in two while those in the Willoughby council area have been grouped together.
The Liberal Party won 55.8% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in North Ku-ring-gai, while independents won 50.7% in South Ku-ring-gai and 53.6% in Willoughby.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.4% in North Ku-ring-gai to 21.1% in Willoughby.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South Ku-ring-gai | 16.5 | 49.3 | 21,377 | 19.2 |
| North Ku-ring-gai | 14.4 | 55.8 | 19,083 | 17.1 |
| Willoughby | 21.1 | 46.4 | 16,671 | 15.0 |
| Pre-poll | 18.8 | 52.7 | 33,487 | 30.1 |
| Other votes | 17.6 | 57.2 | 20,709 | 18.6 |
Election results in Bradfield at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates and Labor.
This is coming right down to the wire. The recount will be a bloody drawn out affair and possibly the candidates are already considering legal grounds for a court challenge. Interesting to note that if for some reason there had a to be a rerun it would be under the current election funding rules.
The closest margins I can recall in a federal poll are 12 votes in Stirling in 1974 and 20 votes in Corio in 1975. I cannot recall anything nearly as close in recent years. Anybody? And of course they were in seats with much smaller enrolments at the time.
Fran Bailey won McEwen in 2007 by 27 votes
Did that go to court? I remember it was highly contentious but not sure if it got that far.
Yes it went to the High Court. Originally Labor won by 6 votes, Fran Bailey then won by 12 during a recount she requested and then there was a court case which Fran Bailey won.
What isthe current margin?
43 to the Libs
With 408 votes left to count.
A question – 1 absent vote seems to have gone missing – what if the margin is 1 vote?
There is a case for any ballot where there is a margin of less than 100 for votes to be counted wrongly. 7 looks like a one or similar..arguement re formality of votes etc.
Need 60% for ind to win
303 Votes left to count, so Boele needs 57.1% of the remaining votes to make the gap up.
Half the votes are coming from Declaration Votes, where on the current available votes, Boele, will only make up 5 votes, bringing the margin down to 38.
On the current trends, Kapterian then makes up 11 votes from the leftover Postals and Boele gains 2 votes from the leftover absentees.
Final Margin, according to this, becomes Kapterian by 47.
This is going to an automatic recount
a few extra votes counted today – libs up by 50
Independent Boele now *up* by 19 votes (2.20pm)
Has now flipped to a 19 vote lead for Boele!
How many votes left?
abc is saying 268 votes left
apparently 181 postals split 125 to 56 in Boele’s favour
Boele up by 40 now
Boele’s lead is now 40 votes, with 59 votes still to count, says Antony Green based on AEC data
@Andrew of 3040 Looks like we have ourselves a guaranteed recount.
Recount here we come!
Though I’d rather be Boele than Kapterian at this stage. A recount will probably only remove tens of votes, not hundreds.
“… apparently 181 postals split 125 to 56 in Boele’s favour…”
70/30, eh?
Kapterian supposedly voted for Sussan Ley in the Liberal leadership contest as supposedly did outgoing Senators Hughes and Reynolds. Will Taylor have another crack at the leadership come July?
@witness such a move against Sussan Ley would look terrible (optics would be shocking, and the tone would be deaf) unless it was in response to a major stuff-up (as distinct from a mere hiccup).
@Witness Worth noting too that Terry Young didn’t vote since Longman was still in doubt at the time. If I remember right, it’s likely that he would’ve voted for Taylor.
Why the rush to settle the leadership so soon?
The Liberals may have been better served waiting until after July 1, so all members of the next parliament would be known and get a vote.
@real talk. They wouldn’t because it’s based on the current parliament. The next parliament is free to spill again but they won’t because it would look bad. I’m hoping andrew Hastie challenges in about a years time. He would likely win. He would have the backing of the conservatives plus the fact he doesn’t have Taylor’s baggage as he screwed over a few people which is why he lost. I’m hoping he goes in with tim Wilson.
ABC now saying Nicolette ahead by 39 votes. And “an official full distribution of preferences must now be undertaken”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/results?sortBy=latest&filter=all&selectedRegion=all&selectedParty=all&partyWonBy=all&partyHeldBy=all
DV – If it’s based on the current parliament, why did members like Tim Wilson and party jumpers like JNP get a vote? The next parliament assembles in August.
count now IND ahead by 45
current count is Boele ahead by 28
Looks like Boele suffered from Labor doing too well in this seat. The total vote for Boele + “the left” (Labor + Greens) is 54%, but Boele is only on 50% 2PP, indicating a fair bit of leakage. Had Boele consolidated more of that vote in her own right, I would think she would have got over the line fairly comfortably.
The preference flow rate to Boele isn’t as great as last election.
At 8:10 pm today the AEC put out a media release on X saying Bradfield is heading for an automatic recount next week after the distribution of preferences was completed this afternoon with the Liberal Party leading independent Nicolette Boele by only 8 votes after the distribution of preferences, well within the 100 vote mark. The AEC said “The recount will commence on Monday & is expected to take up to two weeks”. https://x.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1925856823615131894
The Liberal Party will definitely challenge the result in Court if the Liberal Party loses after the recount, not only because they have so few MPs left and just one more MP would have been an incredible asset to them, but also from the Liberal Party’s perspective, it would be easier for them to win Bradfield in a by-election without the drag of Peter Dutton. Boele may or may not challenge if she loses. From an independent’s perspective however, she may be better off not challenging the result, not only because of the cost of a court battle is very high for an independent without the backing of a party machine, but also a by-election may not necessarily be easier for her to win than the general election.
@joseph agreed the other problem is boele would need to fund another campaign so shortly after the current one. the libs however would have no problem funding it due to the fact they only have one seat to focus on
this will probably be the closest seat result in history.? ??? mcewen was decide by just 31 votes in 2007
@John – The closest result in an Australian electorate was in Ballarat in 1919 (at the time called Ballaarat) where Nationalist Edwin Kerby won Ballaarat by a single vote over Labor’s Charles McGrath. The result was eventually voided and a by-election was called but nonetheless it is the closest result in history.
There is also the chance that Bradfield may be decided by a single digit number of votes.
@james technically a voided result is not a valid result because its void. if i void a contract the contract never existed
The margin in Stirling in 1974 was 12 votes. Ian Viner of the Libs being the winner.
If we’re counting state Bundaberg was won by 9 in 2020.
The closest result on a federal level that stood was Werriwa in 1914. As pointed out, there was a 1 vote margin that was voided. I’m not sure if there’s any state level results that are closer and stood.
Werriwa in 1914 by 7 votes*
There was a tie in 1985 for Nunawading Province (which was the Victorian Legislative Council in its previous form) so the returning officer did a lucky dip from a hat to declare the winner but then the result was voided by a Court of Disputed Returns on the grounds that 44 votes had been incorrectly excluded from the count so it triggered a by-election.
I’m pretty sure Steve Edgington won Barkly in 2020 by 5 votes. Yingiya Mark Guyula won Nhulunbuy by 8 votes in 2016.
@Adda
Wimmera in the Victorian Legislative Assembly at the 1856 election, James McCulloch won the second seat, 25 votes to 24.
@Real Talk I assume you meant to say why didn’t they get a vote?
And chances are there may well be another spill before August.
Doubtful. I doubt anyone’s vote will change in that timeim saying th next vote will be next year
Now out to 10.
Kapterian won’t be easy to knock off if she ultimately wins, as it looks like.
Assuming the libs can’t get competency back they should hopefully recover in the north shore. If I’m calling by her first name because writing here surname over and over is exhausting to check spelling. Also there’s a good possibility NSW might be needing another redistribution due to the 1/3 rule.
Can*