8:44pm – No great news. Appears fairly certain the breakdown will be 7-7-3. There might be some interesting races within each party for seats, but I don’t expect any more results tonight.
7:52pm – In other news, Greens have gained votes in all four NSW by-elections. Swings of about 2% in Port Macquarie and Cabramatta, with a swing of 3% in Ryde and a whopping 10% swing for Kristian Bolwell in Lakemba. Congrats Kristian on a big result.
7:50pm – Nothing much has been happening. Here in Campbell they have finished sorting ballots into each column and are now dividing them by individual candidate. The Greens vote is very evenly spread between the three candidates, although Shane is leading. I guess it shows that Greens voters don’t strongly personalise. We saw the same with Deb Foskey in 2004. They are yet to do any tallies. When they are done I will post them and head for the tally room. Meanwhile the Greens are hoving between 1.35 and 1.4 quotas in Molonglo. I’m still waiting for more figures before ruling out Caroline.
7:13pm – Greens vote picking up in Molonglo, now 1.42 quotas. Shane now on 0.71 with Caroline on 0.37 and Elena on 0.35. Interesting. It’s not unreasonable that one Caroline or Elena could beat Giulia or Jeremy Hanson for the last spot.
7:10pm – Just realised that my booth is the closest booth to Duntroone and ADFA. Apparently the booth workers got a lot of questions about “who are the army guys” (for those of you playing along at home, the answer is Mike Hettinger and Jeremy Hanson). Because if there’s one skill you want in an MLA, it’s the ability to kill a man.
7:01pm – Looking at the breakdowns by candidates, the only interesting cases are Liberals in danger in Molonglo and Ginninderra. In Ginninderra new Liberal candidate Alastair Coe is leading over sitting MLA Vicki Dunne, although both should win. In Molonglo, MLA Jacqui Burke, who filled a casual vacancy in 2001, lost in that election, then filled another casual vacancy in 2002 before being re-elected in 2004, is in serious danger of losing, currently polling fourth amongst the Liberal candidates.
6:52pm – Gallagher, regardless of Labor’s poor performance, remains the most prominent Labor candidate in Molonglo by far. It’s not surprising that the bulk of the Labor vote went to her.
Here’s another thought. The second and third Liberal are both on 0.29 while Caroline le Couteur of the Greens is on 0.36 quotas. She’ll last a long time and Rattenbury should be elected solely on Elena Kirschbaum’s votes. If she lasts and picks up some preferences from Labor and Liberal and a few from Elena, she could be in with a shot.
6:34pm – Now that the electronic pre-poll votes have been counted it’s gonna be a while before the count changes. Currently the ABC computer is predicting 7-7-3, which is reasonable. That sees even numbers of Labor and Liberal in every electorate and one Green in each. Also interesting is the raw votes. There has been a 11.1% swing against the ALP and a 1.8% swing against the Liberals. The Greens have gained 6% while the balance has gone to other parties/indies.
6:24pm – Pre-poll votes counted electronically, resulting in about 15% being counted already. Brindabella has Labor and Liberal both on just over 2 quotas (a large swing against Labor) with Greens on 0.84. Labor on 2.27 in Ginninderra with Liberal on 1.72 and Greens on 0.88. Molonglo has Labor and Liberal both under 3 quotas, with Greens on 1.35 quotas.
6:11pm – I’m in the room. No scrutineer for Labor here, interestingly.
5:55pm – I’m at Campbell Primary School, about to begin scrutineering for the Greens team in Molonglo. I’ll try and keep up with liveblogging. Poll Bludger will likely also be liveblogging both the ACT and NSW, while ABC Elections is the best place for official results.