WA state redistribution – boundaries finalised

That Oakford district is unfortunate.

Looking back at old boundaries a decade or more ago, the previous district of Mindarie last contested in 2008 covered almost all of these three seats: Mindarie, Butler and Wanneroo. That shows how much growth has occurred in the Joondalup and Wanneroo areas, similar to what has happened in the outer suburban growth regions of other capital cities.

In fact, with the continued growth of Butler and surrounding suburbs the next redistribution pre 2029 may well see part of Butler being excised and the district requiring a rename to something like Yanchep.

Those new Fremantle boundaries are much better for the Greens, perhaps with quite the push they can return it to being marginal for them.

@nicholas agreed hopefully they’ll fix it next time
Margins are meaningless they’re over inflated from mcgowan/covid

@Mostly
Do you think The Greens have a shot at any seats this / next election? Do you think they’re targeting any?

Their best bets are Fremantle and Kimberly with extreme outsider chances at Perth, Mt Lawley and Maylands. I don’t think they’ll actually win any lower house seats unless they get lucky with an incumbent retiring.

with moore and north west central now merged into Mid-west will beard contest mid-west against love or run in pilbara? she probably would if she were still a nat but now shes a liberal will they put two sitting memebers against each other or will the liberals not take the risk?

@John,

Geraldton is another option for either of those MPs – it’s the type of seat that the non-Labor parties will need to win back to form a decent opposition in 2025.

The West has been saying with some certainty in their reporting that Beard will contest Midwest

@mostly yea i figured she might given most of her voters will be in that area also pilbara often votes labor but the change of boundaries might alter that outcome. will be interesting
@anton it might be a good one for shane love to contest tbh

Agree John, if either Shane Love or Merome Beard decides to contest against a sitting Labor MP (either in Pilbara or Geraldton), it would give the Coalition a good pickup opportunity (not 100% but a likely gain). Whereas if the two decide to run against each other in a member vs member contest in Mid-West, it will result in guaranteed defeat for one of them, something that is not the case if they challenge a Labor incumbent elsewhere.

Also, even if their home is not directly within the boundaries of the new district, they would have strong name recognition anyway and thus give the Coalition greater chance of picking up the seat compared to running a new candidate.

I imagine that’s why merome beard has chosen to defect since she’s the junior mp Shane would undoubtedly be given preference to contest midwest. I can’t see him contesting Geraldton and she probably won’t contest Pilbara

On another topic I reckon the way will get around a 15% swing back towards them in 2025 normalising the 2pp margin possibly more but I can’t see them get the 23% swing needed

Agreed Yoh An. A recent RedBridge poll shows a Labor 2PP of 59.4% for WA Legislative Assembly voting intention, which is equivalent to a 10.3% statewide swing against Labor. Since swings against Labor will be larger in regional areas, the Nationals will probably win the new Geraldton (Labor 9.2% vs NAT) if a state election were held now. Therefore it is probably wiser for either Merome Beard or Shane Love to run against the Labor incumbent in Geraldton, which could well give both of them a seat after the election, rather than having them compete against each other in Mid-West which will guarantee the defeat of one of them.

Merome Beard defected to the Liberals because she wanted to contest Mid-West, where she and most of her voter base live in, rather than be forced to contest Geraldton that’s much more difficult to win since Shane Love would undoubtedbly be given preference to contest Mid-west because he’s senior. In my opinion, Shane Love would have a greater chance of winning Geraldton than Merome Beard, since Love’s seniority and the fact that Geraldton is surrounded by Moore/Mid-West and provides services to many Moore/Mid-West residents will give Love much greater name recognition in Geraldton than Beard. Shane Love can now choose to run against the Labor incumbent in Geraldton or run against Liberal MP Merome Beard in Mid-West, and it would be wiser for him to choose the former rather than the latter.

What’s more, there are much more former Moore voters in the new Geraldton than former North West Central voters. Shane Love as a senior MP whose former electorate covers a large part (southern part of the Shire of Northampton, inland part of the City of Greater Geraldton and the entirety of the Shire of Chapman Valley) of the new electorate of Geraldton certainly has more name recognition tham Merome Beard as a junior MP whose former electorate covers only a small part (northern part of the Shire of Northampton) of the new electorate of Geraldton.

given that pilbara has had a 2% swing towards the nat after reditribution it could be in play after the 2pp normalises.

the other thin i find odd is theyve put the new state district in the south west but the new federal division look like its gonna go in the north east. its a shame the state ec didnt heed my uggestion and put it there a well

I read that the WA Nationals are open to fielding candidates in all 59 seats, including in Metropolitan Perth. It’s probably their way of bolstering parliamentary numbers in response to Labor’s abolition of malapportionment. It’s either that or they’re looking to permanently replace the Liberals as the opposition or taking advantage of the post-McGowan anti-Labor retreat. Does anyone have an update?

The Nationals got less than 1% in Dawesville and Mandurah in 2021. I think they’re the nearest seats to Perth that they contested.

Yea that’s not gonna happen they’ll get creamed in metropolitan seats. The liberals will be back to striking distMce next election I’d say they have a good shot in 2029.

The West reporting that the Nationals will contest every seat in an attempt to hold the mantle of official opposition. This could include running former Liberal MP Dean Naldee in Bateman which seems to be their main Metropolitan target seat. This is in response to recent electoral changes which remove the mallaportionment from the Legislative Council. It’s important to note that the Nats and Libs in WA are not in coalition and do not like each other. They are currently in an alliance but that’s nearly because they have so few members that they need to work together. The nationals running in every seat will benefit them but hurt the liberals as it will create alot of three cornered contests. Also, in WA the Nationals are far more Moderate than the Liberals. So it’s likely they could have a better chance of getting swing voters especially if the Liberals preselect church candidates like last time.

@ Votante I figured the Nationals may attempt this ever since 2021 election night but I feel they don’t have the resources or appeal to get anywhere in those Metropolitan seats. I believe they tried several decades ago and miserably failed even back then as well. Queensland’s National party was in a unique set of circumstances when they eventually managed to make a full push into Brisbane and that went up in flames just as quickly as it began… Can’t see it working out in 2023, in WA, where their polling numbers are virtually unchanged from their recent election results.

The nats like the greens will never be the govt hisure they may gain enough seats to force a coalition but they don’t have the kind of appeal to win over the majority.

The Nationals are probably in it to broaden their appeal in coastal electorates and outer suburban electorates, with the hope of gaining lower house MPs. More importantly, it’s marketing for the upper house campaign. 80% of voters live in Perth and so there’s a big ‘market’ to tap into.

Desperation stakes for the Nats – there is no way they will pick up any additional lower house seats with this strategy. Chances are they will only retain Roe and Central Wheatbelt and Shane Love may not hold Mid-West. Metropolitan voters in WA have no history of voting for the Nats and no affinity for them and the Nats will poll no more than 3% or 4% in the metro electorates, even if they can find candidates to run. They will have next to no volunteers on the ground in support. They currently hold 3 upper house seats and will be lucky to return 2 of them under the new system. This is a strategy to crib a few upper house votes from retired farmers living on the coast to add to their quotas but the Nats will be very much a minor party after the 2025 election.

@huxley the nats will porbly hold mid west as it has a history of voting national. they should get geraldton and warren blackwood as well. they usually benefit from labor preferences as labor usually preference them just to spite the liberals. kimberley and albany might be in play and they do well in Kalgoorlie sometimes too. but other then that i cant see them pushing into the metropolitain area because they cant even challenge the libs in places like vasse or dawesville or even murray wellington

i meatn pilbara not kimberley sry

Whoops, I forgot about Warren Blackwood. It was an aberration to lose that seat in 2021 – they will probably reclaim it but I stand by everything else I said. I don’t see how they can run a campaign for a seat like Geraldton while trying to push into the metropolitan area and not simply be seen as opportunist and trying to be all things to all people.

Nationals support in the Goldfields has collapsed compared to 15 years ago.

You know you’ve done too many redistributions when you exactly where a place is when a bushfire or whatnot bulletin comes up on the news

@John

I’m the same. I find looking at maps very calming and therapeutic. Just a weird quirk of mine. So I’m looking at them all the time.

@nicolas yea I found doing them to be therapeutic as well

Does anyone know who suggested the oakford boundary/district or did the waec come up with it on there own

I’m pretty sure it was entirely a WAEC creation

My mai issue is with the lga of Kwinana being in it. The city of Kwinana has enough population to fill its own district. Cockburn and Armidale both have excess and I had similar boundaries except extending further into jandskot. And I’ll be looking to build on this next redistribution in 4 years.