For today I’ve got two maps, one of Goulburn, and the other of three other seats in the south-eastern corner of the state.
Swing data thanks to William Bowe’s estimates of 2019 results by 2023 polling place.
Goulburn’s swing map is fascinating. Labor’s support in 2019 was strongly concentrated in the town of Goulburn, with over 54% of the 2PP there. But this time Goulburn swung to the Liberal Party. There were single-digit swings to Labor in Yass and Crookwell, but the swings were even bigger in the Southern Highlands. Labor’s vote was up by 15% in Bundanoon, 13 in Exeter and 7% and 13% in the two Moss Vale booths.
When you toggle to the second map you mostly see red booths through the three main population centres, with the Liberals only winning in the Upper Lachlan Shire area. The ALP won the election day vote, but lost the seat thanks to a stronger Liberal performance in the other vote categories.
I’ve done a single unified map for the three seats in the south-east: Monaro, South Coast and Bega. All three swung hard to the ALP. Coalition MPs had retired in Monaro and Bega in 2022, with Labor winning the Bega by-election and the Nationals retaining Monaro. The local MP in South Coast retired in 2023, so none of the sitting members from 2019 were still running.
The swing map is a sea of red, mostly in the double digits.
The swings were strongest in the Eurobodalla council area, which makes up the northern half of the Bega electorate.
The swings across Monaro don’t show a strong geographic trend – some Queanbeyan booths swung particularly strongly, but others did not.
In South Coast, there is a clear trend that the swings were stronger in the south, around Ulladulla, but even in the north most booths swung by over 10%.
Interestingly, there were swings TO the Liberals in the town of Goulburn, whilst there was a general swing in the electorate and the state. I wonder why.
Also, worth noting is that the biggest swings to Labor in the aforementioned electorates were in small towns and villages and they were upwards of 10% or even 20%.
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