Frome by-election

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The electors of Frome in South Australia went to the polls today to elect a new member of the South Australian House of Assembly to succeed former Liberal Premier Rob Kerin. Counting has concluded for the night, and was covered by Pollbludger and Antony Green.

While the final primary results are yet to come in, the Liberals polled around 40%, down from almost 48% in 2006. The ALP polled about 25%, ahead of independent Port Pirie mayor Geoff Brock. Pre-polls and postals are yet to be counted, and it remains unclear what happens, although some at Pollbludger are projecting victory for Brock.

William Bowe’s projection at Pollbludger projects Brock winning 51.3% of the two-party-preferred vote. Over at his blog, Antony Green says:

At this stage, it looks like the only chance the Liberal Party has of winning this seat is if after the postal and pre-poll votes are counted, Brock’s vote falls far enough that he cannot get ahead of Labor on preferences. If this happens, the swing to labor is not enough to deliver Labor victory. However, if Brock is ahead of Labor, then the preferences will flow more solidly yo Brock than the flow to Labor, and with the Liberal primary vote only around 40%, the Liberal party is in deep trouble. There are a lot of votes yet to count, but at this stage, there is a very real chance that Geoff Brock will be the new Independent Member for Frome. Quite and upset if it is the final result.

Watch this space.

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