Podcast #76: Federal election wrap-up

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Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to wrap up the 2022 federal election. We discuss the undecided Senate races, the close House races, and the paths to victory for the Coalition and chances for future hung parliaments.

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21 COMMENTS

  1. Thanks for this Ben, I did get some insights from this podcast.

    As a non-psephologists, my initial thought when you were talking about the flow of absentee votes in the seat of Gilmore went straight to people who may still be homeless from the 2019 bushfires. Technically their principle place of residence may be within Gilmore, but for reasons associated with rebuilding, they are still forced to live outside this electorate. I don’t know if this is possible, but is it possible to quantify the impact that bushfire rebuilding had on this particular seat? Your discussion seen to focused more on COVID, but putting on my town planning hat, I recognise that rebuilding in declared fire prone areas brings new building standards and costs that may be preventing “battlers” from immediately rebuilding their new dwelling. I just think this may be a lagging and under-reported issue for this electorate.

    The discussion on the Teals and how the Liberal Party will respond was interesting. At this stage it doesn’t look like the Liberal Party is going to try and win the hearts and minds of these electorates – it is shaping up as more culture wars and climate change resistance. If they continue down this part, then the 2025 election will determine if they are on the right path or not, as I can’t see Dutton changing his MO between now and 2025. If I was part of the Teals collective (not a party) then I would be thinking they will be agitating very hard this term for electoral reforms, especially in terms of money involved in running a campaign. There will be no guarantee that the collective good will of thousands of supporters (such as myself who had no Teal candidate in my electorate) will be there in 2025 (my support was purely on the basis of getting rid of Morrison, whereas I think Dutton will be more self-destructive and therefore external donations from people such as myself may not be so forthcoming).

    In terms of the final QLD senate seat I am personally torn between the two likely candidates, because I don’t want to see either rewarded with a Senate seat. Both play to an ugly side of politics – but that is politics, we all have our views and opinions.

  2. Some good discussion by Ben Raue and William Bowe about the Greens and other three-corner-contests.

    I have started a blog where I want to explore this fully.

    3partypreferred.net

    The point about the Greens being more likely to win seats where the Coalition vote isn’t too low is very visible in my 2-dimensional graphical representation of a 3 corner “pendulum.”

    These kinds of races are always going to be much more complex than 2 horse races, it’s not as simple as the Greens likely picking up the most left leaning seats.

  3. My question still is why the Liberals not only held the 5 seats they gained from Labor in 2019, but got swings to them in every single one.

    Morrison has absolutely no appeal in those seats so I fail to understand why the incumbents got swings to them. It didn’t happen in other seats such as Reid,Higgins,Chisholm,Curtin and Wentworth which all had 1st term incumbents.

  4. Daniel –

    The 5 seats you’re referring to are Bass, Braddon, Herbert, Lindsay and Longman, yes?

    All of these seats are regional or “outer suburbs”. With Morrison (and now Dutton too) the Coalition has been going hard after that demographic. So it’s not surprising that they’d be picked up in 2019, and held with a sophomore surge now they’ve got a bit of personal vote.

  5. Ben, can I suggest you have a look at your site’s Super Cache settings (assuming that’s what you’re using) and reduce both the “cache expiry” and “garbage collection” times to something much less. Try 300-600 seconds (5-10 mins) for expiry and 300 secs for the garbage. I think it will help your site’s performance and also allow new comments to show up much faster.

  6. I would say Lindsay and Herbert would be the exact demographics that Morrison was trying to appeal to
    Not sure why Tasmania went towards LNP (besides Lyons having a poor candidate in 2019)

  7. Lyons, Braddon and Bass have populations that are largely Anglo, working class and have lower incomes and educational attainment, which is the type of demographic Morrison and Dutton have appealed to over the past 2 elections at the expense of the inner city and middle suburbs. To an extent, this also applies to Herbert, Longman and Lindsay as well.

  8. Re Suggestion, your comment was caught in the moderation queue which usually means you are a new commenter – can you tell me what you’ve seen that suggests comments are taking too long coming through?

  9. It literally happens all the time, particularly there are major discrepancies between when comments are visible on, for example, firefox on my computer or chrome on my phone, to the extent that some comments won’t show up for hours on one browser even if they appear instantly on another. Or comments might appear temporarily on one browser before disappearing and reappearing hours later, yet still be visible on another browser the entire time.

  10. @Ben Raue

    I observe this too.

    I’ll go to the homepage and see that there are new comments. Then I click to view the comment, and it isn’t there. A few hours later, I’ll be able to view it.

    I observe this behaviour on Firefox and Brave on my laptop (Ubuntu).

    On Firefox on my phone (Pixel 4 XL), it doesn’t happen at all.

  11. Ben, I didnt mean the mod queue, that’s ok. Comments show up in the sidebar to the right on some pages but not on others until much later. Sometimes they don’t seem to show up for awhile on the pages they’re made on either. This suggests to me that the site is serving a cached version of the page, which is good, but that the cache should be refreshed a bit faster. That would also prevent the cache becoming too big at once, which can be a problem with a big site like yours, depending on the host.

  12. Comments often appear in listed the recent comments section of other pages before they appear on their own page (except with the reply link in follow-up comment notification emails for those subscribed to the comments section of a page which (in my experience) always work immediately, although are not available for seat pages due to them not having a follow-up comment notification option). For example, https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47888/comment-page-1#comment-771779 is the most recent comment I can see on this page at time of commenting, however, on other pages I can see up to 4 further comments listed on this page in the recent comments section.

    This however can be useful at busy times for finding comments that are recent to an unupdated thread but not recent enough to remain in the recent comment section of up to date pages.

  13. Also keep in mind that WP usually doesn’t show a cached version of a page to an admin when they are logged into their site, so you might not be seeing the same cache problem as we are. Try logging out or using a different browser than the one you use normally.

    At the moment, on your homepage I can see in the sidebar that you (Ben) have made a new comment on this topic, but when I come to this page I can’t see it as the cache hasn’t updated since you made the comment. It seems like it’s updating about once an hour or so, which would be ok on a small site with not much traffic, but yours is large with lots of pages and lots of people making comments on them.

  14. Regarding the issue with the comments, I’ve noticed that they often disappear when clicking and following the link, but if the #comment- etc part is removed from the URL, then all the comments will be visible. To date, that’s a solution which has worked for me.

  15. The L/NP are going to find it very difficult to be re-elected with their current lineup which is seen as incompetent, corrupt, and too conservative to win a majority of voters. They’ll probably lose further seats in the cities next election, even though the economic situation is likely to be poor. I suspect we’re going to see a long running centrist Labor government whether it be in majority or in minority with the support of Greens and/or teals. The teal seats are unlikely to return to the Libs they all have demographics trending the other way and are unlikely to re-elect a Lib representative again.

  16. The LNP will have to win 18 seats to form a majority, assuming no net changes in numbers due to by-elections or defections this term. It won’t form a minority with the Greens or some or most independents. There are some seats that are probably permanently written off. Independents and minor parties hardly ever lose or resign after just one term. Labor actually gained just 10 Liberal seats at this election, 4 of which are in WA. These 10 would be low-hanging fruit for the LNP along with Lyons, Lingiari and Gilmore (seats they almost won).

    Every change-of-government election involves winning seats that their side had never held, or had never held in decades. Think Higgins and Tangney in 2022, and Reid and Lyons in 2013 and Corangamite and various QLD seats in 2007. If the LNP does win in 2025, this would be the case too.

    There’s a chance that Peter Dutton will be Tony Abbott 2.0 and despite being an unpopular OL, will win in a landslide by beating an unpopular government. Surely, he’d like to emulate his predecessor’s success.

    There are differences between 2025 and 2013.

    1. Tony Abbott and the LNP represented stability. John Howard was still fresh in voters’ minds. That has now changed because of the leadership coups on both sides.
    2. The crossbench was smaller in 2013.
    3. The Libs had a stranglehold on affluent, blue-ribbon, inner-city seats.
    4. The LNP has 58 seats now. It had 72 seats at the 2013 election.

  17. Daniel, Alexj, bazza
    The statistical curiosity you reference did not eventuate. Morrison’s law – ‘busted’.

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