With the resignation of Gareth Ward this morning, shortly before his expected expulsion from Parliament, a by-election will be needed to replace him in Parliament. The Kiama by-election should happen soon, likely in September.
I won’t be delving into the issues around Ward’s legal situation, or the potential expulsion – the focus here is entirely on the impending by-election.
Labor will fancy their chances of winning, after almost defeating Ward in 2023. The seat was Labor-held before Ward’s first win in 2011. But perhaps a Liberal candidate without Ward’s baggage or his dividing of the conservative vote could still be competitive.
You can read my guide to the Kiama by-election here.
This will be an interesting by-election given not only the circumstances but also the fact that this usually is a marginal seat.
Labor has 45 seats which is two short of a majority (47). If they gain Kiama then they will be only one seat short. However, the Coalition need 12 seats for a majority as they have 35 seats (having lost Pittwater at the by-election earlier this year which was caused by the resignation of an MP for the same reason). This would be their chance of getting back their 36th seat and reducing the number of seats needed for a majority in 2027 to 11.
Again hard to predict this one since it could go either. I think it’ll come down to the candidates. Last time the Liberal candidate was Melanie Gibbons who was parachuted in at the last minute. Melanie Gibbons was the retiring member for Holsworthy (formerly Menai) in Sydney.