It’s been two weeks since I first posted about the resignations of three Coalition MPs leading to impending by-elections, and the guides I’ve prepared for those by-elections.
Two more have now been added to the list: Liberal MP Melanie Gibbons will be resigning from her marginal seat of Holsworthy to contest the federal seat of Hughes at the time of the next election, while Labor’s Jodi McKay has announced she will resign from her seat of Strathfield less than five months after losing the Labor leadership.
Holsworthy is very marginal, and is held by a margin of just 3.3% (although that Liberal margin will strengthen to 6.2% on the new margins). I recommend checking out the vote map – there is a stark difference between booths on each side of the Georges River in the Liverpool area.
Strathfield should stay in Labor hands but is not the safest. McKay barely won in 2015, and the Liberal Party won the seat in the 2011 landslide.
I should also note the likely timing. Gibbons has explicitly said she won’t resign until she needs to do so to contest the federal election. Constance is also planning to resign from Bega to run in the federal election, and may do so on the same timeline, but hasn’t said that explicitly.
On the other hand, Berejiklian and McKay are resigning on a much quicker timeline, and I think Barilaro will be doing the same.
So it’s very unlikely all of these by-elections will be held on the same day.
My naming conventions require me to give a year for each election, but I think at least some of these by-elections will be held in 2022, and they may all wait until the new year.
So while I have a single page capturing the five by-elections, it’s likely that structure will change as we get closer to the day.