Holsworthy by-election, 2021

Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP Melanie Gibbons announced that she would resign from Holsworthy at the time of the next federal election to contest the federal seat of Hughes, which will trigger a state by-election.

MarginLIB 3.3%

Geography
South-west Sydney. Holsworthy covers south-eastern parts of the City of Liverpool and a small north-western part of Sutherland Shire. Holsworthy covers Barden Ridge, Casula, Chipping Norton, Holsworthy, Lucas Heights, Lurnea, Moorebank, Prestons and Wattle Grove.

History
Menai was first created at the 1999 redistribution. The seat was won in 1999 by the ALP’s Alison Megarrity with a 4.2% margin. She was re-elected in 2003 with an increased 9.5% margin.

In 2007, Megarrity won a third term, but with a reduced 2.7% margin.

In 2011, Megarrity retired and Liberal candidate Melanie Gibbons won Menai with a huge 27% swing. Gibbons was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Holsworthy is a very marginal electorate and could very well be in play at a by-election.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melanie GibbonsLiberal21,48144.5-5.0
Charishma KaliyandaLabor18,15237.6+1.2
Michael ByrneOne Nation3,9058.1+8.1
Chris KerleGreens2,1914.50.0
Gae ConstableAnimal Justice1,9013.9+3.9
Roland BarberLiberal Democrats6141.3+1.3
InformalInformal2,2564.5

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melanie GibbonsLiberal22,86153.3-3.4
Charishma KaliyandaLabor20,04246.7+3.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Holsworthy have been split into two halves: east and west, divided by the Georges River.

The Liberal Party won a large 61.9% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east, while Labor won 55.7% in the west.

One Nation came third, with a slightly higher vote in the east.

Voter groupON primLIB 2PPTotal votes% of votes
East8.161.918,70538.8
West7.244.313,44127.9
Other votes8.951.49,21719.1
Pre-poll9.049.66,88114.3

Election results in Holsworthy at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and One Nation.

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