Federal election open thread

156

There’s been a lot of comments on various electorate profiles about the federal election that have been a bit more general than about a particular seat, and I’ve had a few requests for an open thread to discuss the federal election.

I’m working on a couple of other blog posts I’m hoping to put up later this week.

Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!

156 COMMENTS

  1. P N
    You will however agree that the ALP does have a dilemma – between its city dwelling professional class greeny type voters strongly opposed to mining, versus the rural unionised working voters strongly favouring mining. It is this division which is being played by PHON

  2. @James Banks contains part of Canterbury-Bankstown, Hughes contains part of Liverpool, and Reid contains part of Cumberland. But it can be said that Banks has the distinction of being the first Liberal division to be entirely under the heavy COVID restrictions.

  3. Wreathy of Sydney July 28, 2021 at 11:04 am
    Liberals hard libertarian? HAHAHAHAHA.

    Almost every Liberal loves big government.

    Mate you are so-so SO right. That comment from Ryan was so out there that it caused an immense but momentary, instinctive CONVULSION inside me.!!.

    On reflection what i came up with was that those with say “left leaning views” seem to expect the same idealogical consistency ,order, predictability, intensity even tribalism from their perceived counterparts on what they perceive as “the other side”. Well with great satisfaction, & considerable immodesty i must refute this STRONGLY !.

    We (if i may speak for those very loosely defined as right leaning !?) are not nearly so predictable ,conformist, or idealogical consistent. It is far messier, & even more conflicted than just having a position, or allegiance . Expecting others to mirror ourselves is just ….immature, & un-evolved. Yes i know that’s condescending, but the reality is a painful truth !!.. Miss WD has arrived on schedule will come back to this more to follow…

  4. I would say I would be supportive of the Liberal Party if they were more libertarian, but perhaps that’d be a bit like saying I would support the Communist Party if they were more capitalist.

  5. WD –

    You’re predicting that the Greens won’t get a Senate seat in Qld this time? That’s a big call, considering they crossed on 95% of a quota last time – and in between, their state election vote share only dropped a smidge with Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis entering the race and a solid swing to Labor too. Actually, if the summed Greens vote share and exhaustion “vote share” remain identical then that’s more than a quota, so it’d be almost impossible for them to lose out. There’d need to be 6 other tickets/candidates all on about 97%.

  6. Banks depends upon the alp vote in the Revesby part of the seat. (roughly half)…… if bad then like last election in 2019. If good can run close. maybe a 2 election prospect. Like Daryl Melham before him appears Coleman has a personal vote.

  7. Two comments on miners:

    1. The whole issue regarding miners and their ongoing support for the ALP is really a NSW and QLD argument regarding coal miners – in particular thermal coal – the difference with coking coal never gets made. Is there really an issue in SA and WA where miners are mining something else?

    2. Has anybody ever analysed the voting preferences of FIFO miners – do QLD FIFO miners who live in Brisbane vote the same way as those living in Dawson or Capricornia. Are the high wages a better predictor of voting behaviour?

    For what its, there was a great theory a few years back that FIFO was invented to break the mining unions – less solidarity with FIFO but also that miners families (especially their wives) were a union bulwark in mining towns and kept the faith during strikes etc. Is FIFO also breaking the Labor Party?

  8. AlexJ even if outer suburban voters who traditionally vote Green pick Labor this time the way the inner suburbs and the western suburbs vote nowadays means Ryan, Griffith and Brisbane are bound to be Greens seats sooner rather than later and that massive Green surge in the inner city will likely transfer through to the Senate.

  9. @Mick, that’s a good point about the western part of Banks. That said, I still think there is room to offset a possible decline by improving the Liberal vote in the eastern part, especially around Hurstville.

  10. AlexJ
    Yep i was expecting a correction. You will probably be proven exactly right. Call it instinct, or “my feminine side “!

  11. Connelly is confirmed to be running for Cowan according to Poll Bludger. It will be up to preselectors to choose him as the candidate however it seems likely

    How much does he lose to Anne Aly by? I believe the coalition will recover some polling deficit in WA by the next election but unlikely enough to stop Aly getting a swing to her.

  12. Ben
    Daniel’s comment & my response really ought to be in the Cowan thread, but we can’t access it.

    Daniel
    WA is going to be the most unpredictable state. we are all anticipating labor getting 2-3 seats But who knows, really ? In Cowan maybe Aly gets no real traction, & goes nowhere, while that happens, or even loses !
    Maybe a lot of those Labor voters from Stirling turn around ? Aly has a lot of new voters, so i hope she is prepared to work.

  13. Herewith the rest of the Crikey Article i placed in the Richmond thread . As is obvious this looks like Labor’s “scare/fear campaign strategy. Personally i’m thrilled that they are going to try this on !!. Absobloodylutely fabulous !!!. It will fuel the LDP campaign.

    I’ll postulate that since Julian Hill (Bruce) , & Tim Watts (Gellibrand) have been equally vocal, they would appear to be the ringleaders in this latest ALP “shit squad” >>>>>>

    An Essential Media poll late in the campaign showed 50% of voters thought it likely the Liberal Party would attempt to privatise Medicare if it won the election, 34% said it was unlikely, and 17% did not know. Of those polled, 81% said privatising Medicare — as well as changing its current form — was cause for concern.
    Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull was forced to declare that “Medicare will never, ever, ever be privatised”, which Labor counted as a success. The government’s response was widely criticised for being too late and for allowing Labor to control the agenda.
    So is Elliot’s social media campaign a legitimate new “Mediscare”, or simply freelancing to generate support in her electorate … and maybe earn a place in the shadow cabinet? On the evidence so far it seems to be the latter.
    Labor’s original campaign was effectively planned and executed, with a very substantial budget and heavy involvement of political allies. Elliot has received support from a handful of backbenchers, along with her assertion to The New Daily: “A lot of people in my area were raising their concerns. I’ve been inundated.”
    However, social media support — even when extensive — does not make a false claim true, as demonstrated by Donald Trump’s “big lie” about the US election being stolen.
    In her defence, Elliot — who was parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs and trade in the first Rudd government — says she “won’t be silenced”.
    But no matter how often she repeats her unsupported allegation, it seems most unlikely to have any wider impact.
    Tony Jaques is an expert on issue and crisis management and risk communication. He is CEO of Melbourne-based consultancy Issue Outcomes and his latest book is Crisis Counsel: Navigating Legal and Communication Conflict.

  14. winediamond I highly doubt Anne Aly will lose Cowan and the voters who’ve been transferred into Cowan (Balga, Mirrabooka, Nollamara among others) are working-class, largely multicultural voters who would be more likely to swing to Labor given the diversity of the sitting MP. This area of Perth is electorally stable and there’s almost no way Aly won’t retain the seat.

  15. Ryan Spencer
    What exactly did i fail to acknowledge ? We are talking COWAN/ STIRLING not Perth. 40-50000 voters moved out, & same in. are you saying there can’t be ANY surprises, nothing to see , everything under control !! ?. Bet Ann Aly has a different POV !!

  16. winediamond all the suburbs I mentioned were in Stirling (Balga, Mirrabooka, Nollamara) and I would consider that they would not put Anne Aly in jeopardy. The new Cowan also includes Tuart Hill, Dianella and Yokine, which, while more conservative than the others, effectively cancel out politically the inclusion of the Mirrabooka area, meaning nothing has changed, nothing will change, although the Greens vote is higher.

  17. I really find it interesting how people say this recent lockdown in Sydney could have major voting affects on the liberals in some of their pick up seats which sure could have some impact but having completely rule out certain seats and having safer liberal seats people say are now up for grabs I just don’t completely buy. No one mentions at all the impact Melbourne’s lockdown had on people and how it can sway seats with all seats in Victoria supposedly being ruled out for the liberals now according to people. I believe it works both ways and not one way or the other as these are similar situations and actually was worse off in the Victoria situation, we are still 8 or so months off and a lot can change so I feel people getting rather confident on certain seats us rather unusual after we saw what happened in 2019.

  18. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/42746?replytocom=754151#comment-754151

    The logic is that:

    Lockdowns now highlight the Morrison Government`s slow vaccine rollout and its so far heavy reliance on AstraZeneca.

    The Morrison Government backed NSW`s lockdown avoidance strategy, now NSW is in a long, delayed and very frequently altered and geographically uneven lockdown that strategy is not looking so sensible as it did, including to many voters.

    The recent lockdowns outside NSW have been prompt, clear, relatively even and effective. Victoria`s second wave lockdown, while long and not as prompt as it should have been was clear, relatively even and fully effective. Victoria`s second wave is also no longer able to be though of something that could only happen under Andrews.

    The Morrison Government has been very NSW favouring with its support, so is cruising for a bruising outside NSW. The PM of/for New South Wales is a very effective line outside NSW.

  19. Does Family First which is being revived by 2 former state Mp’s contest federal seats as well? If so it could aid the coalition with preferences

    I must say even THEY finally woke up and smelt the coffee that Labor is going on the wrong path at the moment. How many more Labor defections will it take for Labor to finally wake up and smell the coffee themselves?

    United Australia, One Nation and Family First is an unstoppable force and will guarantee the coalition wins through preferences.

    I predict Family First could win a senate seat in South Australia if they contest federally. Rex Patrick has no chance of winning re-election considering he quit NXT.

    In South Australia the senate tally will probably be 2 ALP 2 LIB 1 GRN and 1 FF.

    The anti-lockdown protests will help the coalition retain government and gain ground in Sydney in my opinion.

  20. Pez – you make an interesting comment.

    However, living in Sydney, considering what Victoria went through last year and the quick response from other states to eliminate by going hard and fast with lockdowns compared to NSW that differed and dallied, people are getting not very happy.

    Also there is the record of Morrison not managing crisis well – fires last year, pandemic and being the PM for Sydney.

  21. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/42746?replytocom=754154#comment-754154

    SA requires only 200 members for a political party, at Commonwealth level its 500, so contesting the upcoming Commonwealth election would be harder with the potentially shorter time constraints.

    This FF revival has stated preference neutrality on a 2PP basis at least.

    Senator Xenophon is apparently considering a comeback over the treatment of an ugg boot manufacturer being sued in the USA for selling online from Australia to the USA (where Ugg Boot is still trademarked). That could make the SA half-Senate election interesting.

    I suspect the FF revival is mainly about the SA Legislative Council, with its 8.33% quota, to try and prevent a ALP+Greens majority potentially from 2026 onwards (once SA Best has washed out of the system, as without a non-Green minor party winning a seat the ALP+Greens have a better chance of a combined majority).

  22. I think a lot of people on this site (myself included), suffer from participation bias. To us, it seems that everything has an effect on voting intention. In reality, it takes a great deal to move the needle. The Libs are in a spot of trouble at the moment, no denying that. On the other hand, do I think Labor are in prime position to take advantage of that? No.

  23. Daniel: There’s no coffee to be smelt, just two deeply conservative Catholics who can’t handle the concept of Labor being a progressive party. They should take Don Farrell with them, and let the SDA get on with the job of actually representing retail workers. If it makes SA Labor more dominated by the left, they might get the opposite of what they wanted.

    UAP and One Nation looked like a pretty stoppable force in Queensland last year – apart from the one guy they got elected in 2017, who basically operates like a right-wing independent (similar to Rosa Lee Long in Tablelands back in the day), ON went nowhere. UAP did even worse, and if Clive Palmer tries campaigning in WA, there are 10 Liberal seats (federally) here and all of them are loseable. (Yes, even Curtin.)

  24. Wreathy of Sydney
    Really good comment. I’d go a little further than you did tho,… (of course i would !!)
    ‘” do I think Labor are in prime position to take advantage of that? No.”

    Under Albo & his crew i sense they would struggle profoundly, to find their own arse with both hands. The only thing between them & sporting oblivion is the reality that the PM & most of his ministers are little better.
    One of my best mates was told by his father “you are the least useless of all my sons !”(4). The scorn of faint praise indeed ? Therefore i would suggest the voting public hold the government in similar LOW ESTEEM, & have a realistic appreciation of their abilities. Thus the public expectation is realistically FAINT. !! They are already disappointed, even disillusioned, labor have no policies to enthuse the voters with, even if they could be roused, from apathetic resignation.
    Cheers WD

  25. Agree with BoP. The shoppies’ defection is meaningless. The entire union has historically operated like little more than a racket. They don’t represent any sort of voting bloc because they haven’t ever represented their members, who are typically young, part time/low income, vulnerable people that the union exploits for sweetheart deals. Its leadership has only ever been interested in ALP factional games. One Nation on the other hand represents an actual social movement, and while UA doesn’t represent anything other than the narcissism of the man who wishes he was the Australian Trump, he at least has the money to buy influence when he’s in the mood.

  26. @Bird of paradox

    “there are 10 Liberal seats (federally) here and all of them are loseable. (Yes, even Curtin.)”

    I’m reluctant to take Labor’s win in WA and suggest it could mimic the results federally. Antony Green makes the point that swings in states politics are generally greater then federal. Its because voters tend to vote for who can get the job done in state politics while federally voters tend to vote more along lines of political ideology. That’s why Daniel invoking comparisons with the LNP’s QLD state win in 2012 and suggestions of the coalition win up to 100 seats should be taken with a grain of salt.

    However, by saying that I tend to think it’s plausible Labor will get a spike up on its vote federally in WA. Labor’s federal win in 1990 was largely because Labor’s vote in QLD was higher then the national average. It was largely driven because voters were still angry at the Fitzgerald inquiry into the Bjelke-Petersen government. So state politics can still have impact and have federal implications.

  27. Yeah, it won’t be 70-30 to Labor, that’s for sure. Even 55-45 would be a 10% swing, though, and that takes out three seats and makes another few very marginal. There’s been a combined 25% swing to Labor over the last two state elections – it’s impossible for that not to have at least some effect.

    Labor are already running ads linking Morrison and Palmer, and the West (our monopoly daily newspaper) has a feral hatred of him that makes the Murdoch press’ hatred of Julia Gillard look almost sane. That hatred is shared by most West Aussies. The word “toxic” gets overused in politics, including on this site, but it applies here. If Palmer campaigns in WA, he will be personally responsible for an extra 5% swing against the Libs.

    The Libs won’t come out empty-handed, but Swan, Hasluck and Pearce are low-hanging fruit, and if things really go to hell, Canning, Moore and Tangney are on the radar too. Plus, they’ve lost Stirling in the redistribution. They could be left with Curtin and the three regional seats.

  28. BoP an observation if I may- the areas which swung hardest to the incumbent state government were the working-class regional areas (Kalgoorlie, the Pilbara and the mid-North coast). This could (not saying it’s likely at all) mean a swing to Labor, although they don’t have all too many candidates to run out there…

    Labor HQ (controlled by Labor right McGowanites) are working to obstruct Zaneta Mascarenhas’s campaign, given she beat an SDA-aligned candidate, meaning the left-wing unions will be funding her campaign manager instead.

    Palmer should give up. The party which he may well have been funding in March (WAxit, which featured a ton of reused UAPP candidate) tanked even more so he’s got very few groups of Australians left to flummox and mislead.

  29. A swing to Labor in places like Kalgoorlie, Geraldton and Port Hedland is plenty likely, but they’re all in Durack and O’Connor, which both have enough uber-safe wheatbelt in them that Labor can’t win them. Even at the WTF election in March, the three state seats (Moore, Central Wheatbelt and Roe) had Nat margins over 8%. There’s a reason Mia Davies gets to be the opposition leader.

    I remember Mascarenhas from Curtin uni back in the day, from protests against stuff like the Iraq war, mandatory detention of refugees and VSU. If she wins Swan, she’ll join Patrick Gorman as former Curtin guild presidents.

  30. Durack and O’Connor could be quite interesting if the Nats join the fray there (and the WA Nats are not as tied to not upsetting the Libs as other branches around the country).

    Should the Nats run, I’d expect them to be a good chance of winning O’Connor off the Libs – it’s happened before, and Durack would be a genuine three way contest, though I’d expect one of the Libs/Nats to eventually come out on top – even though all the major population centers are strongly Labor at the state level (at the moment).

    If the state results were to be duplicated at Federal level, the Libs would not hold any metro seats (even Curtin would likely fall on the back of the new northern area around the state seat of Scarborough having swung violently to the ALP at the last election alongside Nedlands and Churchlands. Forrest would even likely fall on the back of Bunbury, which was one of the biggest swings in the state.

    But that ‘aint gonna happen.

    If current state polling is to be believed, I’d expect the ALP to pick up Swan (finally), and Pearce on the back of the Porter affair should fall, and probably Hasluck. One of Moore or Tangney might come close (the ALP does hold every state seat in those areas, and mostly on >8%), but I’d expect them to hold.

    That would be a split 8-7 to the ALP of seats in WA, which wouldn’t be unrealistic with an ALP 2PP vote around 52%.

  31. on State election figures Durrack and Oconnor and Forrest would have been alp help…. curtin is liberal just however this is based on 70/3 alp split which probably wont even recur at the state level…… I think this indicates a swing to Labor but i think the best they can do plus 3…. of course Durrack and trhe other 2 country seats will not return alp members

  32. The ALP are definitely relying on a Victoria-wide swing to win Chisholm. If Jennifer Yang were to recontest, she would win Chisholm by a landslide but with the current ALP candidate, it’s not as clear-cut since Gladys Liu would appeal a lot to this electorate than a parachuted union official with a Gender Studies PhD. Labor may be shooting themselves in the foot.

  33. I won’t be surprised if a swing towards Gladys Liu in Box Hill and Glen Waverley prevent the seat from falling to the ALP.

  34. The LNP introduced a number of Electoral Act amendments today, including one to raise the rego threshold from 500 to 1500. Pretty clearly aimed at cutting size of the ballot paper.

    (Personally I think rego and ballot access should be decoupled, but that’s a different issue again.)

  35. It shouldn’t matter how many members you have in your party as long as you have the money to fund yourself and your candidates. Here we go again the LNP are undermining democracy by getting rid of parties they see as a threat to their primary vote. It will only cost them votes at the next election rather than help them win.

    I am however in favour of OPV because I believe it gives voters more power by not having to side with one of the major 2 parties on preferences and it would give a lesson to both major parties because these days they assume that a ”TPP” vote is an endorsement when it isn’t always.

    I don’t care how big the ballot paper is, It could be 10 metres long for all I care. As long as the we the voters get our say. If they are that bothered about wasting paper, Why can’t Scotty change the system to electronic voting eh?

  36. Electronic voting is great (see the ACT election where 85% of them voted online and we knew most of the results in about an hour).

    I guess this whole “1500 minimum” thing really affects parties in the Northern Territory given the Country Libs are a whole different party.

    Maybe Sam McMahon might cross the floor in a final “screw you” to the hard-right hacks in the Nats.
    Coming to think of it, Jacinta Price does not at all strike me as a National. Maybe she’ll sit with the Libs?

  37. I think we are looking at a hung parliament at this stage with the coalition on 73 and Labor on 71. Struggle to get either to 76. But Haines,Steggal,Katter and Sharkie are more likely than not to give the coalition the 76 should they hold on with Bandt and Wilkie siding with Labor.

  38. Daniel
    Which seats do you have changing hands. In addition what has changed so much so recently to stop you thinking that Fowler could fall ad instead think that there would be a hung parliament?

  39. Daniel

    Steggall, Sharkie and Haines wouldn’t pick a side (mostly given climate change)
    Katter would go with the LNP
    Bandt and Wilkie would go with Labor

    not withstanding the high chance of Greens gains in inner city marginals (Brisbane, Griffith, Macnamara)

    then its 74-73
    Bob Katter will try and be speaker again and probably get in (!)
    makes it 73-73

    just realised you’ve missed a seat (Hawke?)

    anyway it’ll be a hung parliament, climate stuff will likely be on the agenda because of it, but Albanese will get rolled anyway because he’s incredibly unassuming, uninteresting, uninspiring and a bit insipid.

    Chalmers or Plibersek as the next actual Labor leader.

    However WA could be interesting given the WA Liberals are very unpopular.

    Nonetheless ye olde ScoMo will probably need to find a plush private sector job now!!

  40. It’s quite interesting seeing comments change their tone, and we’re still so far out from the next election. As they say, a week is a very long time in politics. A month, even more so.

  41. No doubt the ALP will get a swing in VIC. The problem for them is that there aren’t that many Liberal held marginal seats in VIC and except for Chisholm, they tend to have relatively high margins for marginal seats and a lot of them are usually Liberal seats (Higgins, Casey, Deakin, La Trobe, Kooyong, Menzies). Chisholm is different from most marginal seats in the country as it tends to stick with sitting MPs and has an incumbent Chinese Australian MP up against a parachuted white union official in a seat where 20% of the population has Chinese heritage so what should be an easy ALP gain will go down to the wire like the last election. Goes without saying that there are lots of other factors that won’t be in the Liberal’s favour like the hawkish handling of relations with China, Eric Abetz questioning Chinese Australian’s loyalty, the drastic increase in racism against Chinese Australians over the past few years, the ALP basically having the same tax policy as the Coalition now and many non-Chinese constituents may not like an ethnically Chinese MP, particularly one so gaffe prone and with so much negative press.

  42. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/42746?replytocom=754636#comment-754636

    The nexus clause means that expanding the House of Reps is lumpy and expensive (with the exception of territory representation). Scrapping the nexus clause failed in 1967, crashing and burning due to DLP opposition but it probably would have failed anyway as the 3 smaller state voted heavily against. With a much larger number of smaller political parties across a wide distribution of the political spectrum, that are likely to largely be opposed to such a referendum passing, and decades of minor party influence in the Senate and 5 state parliament it is likely to fail harder if tried again.

    A referendum to include the territories in the nexus clause, which would expand the house by a small number (3-4 on current numbers), is another option.

    General Senate expansion might help One Nation gain seats in some states where it would likely often create a Coalition surplus after their 3rd seat, of which some would likely go to One Nation.

  43. I think there is probably now scope for significantly increasing the size of the parliament without unduly increasing costs. I see no reason why we need the routine Canberra trips when with Zoom etc we could have a much bigger parliament without the cost, especially if a lot more work was done in committees. I think increasing the number of electorate offices will probably be a net plus because the work done at the local level is pretty useful, even if it is only helping individuals negotiate bureaucracy and handing out prizes at school speech days.

    There is probably scope for having some parliamentarians as essentially part time, which could work if they only had to travel to Canberra perhaps for on-two weeks per year. Some could be allocated fewer support staff.

    To get around the nexus problem I would as a start increase each state to 14 Senators allowing 24 new MHRs. I would then also look to the territories and given that Tasmania would have 14 Senators I would increase the territory allocation to 12 which would allow an additional 16.

    Inevitably at least from the NT the indigenous voice would increase and it might even be possible to allocate some special purpose groups some of the ACT senators eg youth or even expat.

  44. Craig Kelly is now leading UAP to the next election. I’m surprised that Clive’s willing to let someone else be the poster boy, but I guess owning a leader of a political party is even more soothing to his ego than being one. They’re running on an anti-lockdown platform, of course.

    Morrison and the rest of the Coalition are now officially running with the ‘we have to live with it!’ soundbites. Similarly the conservative media sphere are now making a big push to minimise/normalise the virus like they’ve done in the United States, to glorify the anti-lockdown/anti-quarantine/anti-vax movement and the whole constellation. Utterly despicable to watch the Liberal Party completely degenerate to the level of the American Republican Party so quickly, but I guess it was only a matter of time before the conservative movement broadly realised that solving the disasters they cause isn’t nearly as easy or as fun as pretending they didn’t really exist in the first place.

  45. I didn’t realise this before but since the electoral reforms have now passed, the New Liberals and the Liberal Democrats will have to change their names before they can run. Absolute bullshit.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here