Federal election open thread

117

There’s been a lot of comments on various electorate profiles about the federal election that have been a bit more general than about a particular seat, and I’ve had a few requests for an open thread to discuss the federal election.

I’m working on a couple of other blog posts I’m hoping to put up later this week.

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117 COMMENTS

  1. P N
    You will however agree that the ALP does have a dilemma – between its city dwelling professional class greeny type voters strongly opposed to mining, versus the rural unionised working voters strongly favouring mining. It is this division which is being played by PHON

  2. @James Banks contains part of Canterbury-Bankstown, Hughes contains part of Liverpool, and Reid contains part of Cumberland. But it can be said that Banks has the distinction of being the first Liberal division to be entirely under the heavy COVID restrictions.

  3. Wreathy of Sydney July 28, 2021 at 11:04 am
    Liberals hard libertarian? HAHAHAHAHA.

    Almost every Liberal loves big government.

    Mate you are so-so SO right. That comment from Ryan was so out there that it caused an immense but momentary, instinctive CONVULSION inside me.!!.

    On reflection what i came up with was that those with say “left leaning views” seem to expect the same idealogical consistency ,order, predictability, intensity even tribalism from their perceived counterparts on what they perceive as “the other side”. Well with great satisfaction, & considerable immodesty i must refute this STRONGLY !.

    We (if i may speak for those very loosely defined as right leaning !?) are not nearly so predictable ,conformist, or idealogical consistent. It is far messier, & even more conflicted than just having a position, or allegiance . Expecting others to mirror ourselves is just ….immature, & un-evolved. Yes i know that’s condescending, but the reality is a painful truth !!.. Miss WD has arrived on schedule will come back to this more to follow…

  4. I would say I would be supportive of the Liberal Party if they were more libertarian, but perhaps that’d be a bit like saying I would support the Communist Party if they were more capitalist.

  5. WD –

    You’re predicting that the Greens won’t get a Senate seat in Qld this time? That’s a big call, considering they crossed on 95% of a quota last time – and in between, their state election vote share only dropped a smidge with Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis entering the race and a solid swing to Labor too. Actually, if the summed Greens vote share and exhaustion “vote share” remain identical then that’s more than a quota, so it’d be almost impossible for them to lose out. There’d need to be 6 other tickets/candidates all on about 97%.

  6. Banks depends upon the alp vote in the Revesby part of the seat. (roughly half)…… if bad then like last election in 2019. If good can run close. maybe a 2 election prospect. Like Daryl Melham before him appears Coleman has a personal vote.

  7. Two comments on miners:

    1. The whole issue regarding miners and their ongoing support for the ALP is really a NSW and QLD argument regarding coal miners – in particular thermal coal – the difference with coking coal never gets made. Is there really an issue in SA and WA where miners are mining something else?

    2. Has anybody ever analysed the voting preferences of FIFO miners – do QLD FIFO miners who live in Brisbane vote the same way as those living in Dawson or Capricornia. Are the high wages a better predictor of voting behaviour?

    For what its, there was a great theory a few years back that FIFO was invented to break the mining unions – less solidarity with FIFO but also that miners families (especially their wives) were a union bulwark in mining towns and kept the faith during strikes etc. Is FIFO also breaking the Labor Party?

  8. AlexJ even if outer suburban voters who traditionally vote Green pick Labor this time the way the inner suburbs and the western suburbs vote nowadays means Ryan, Griffith and Brisbane are bound to be Greens seats sooner rather than later and that massive Green surge in the inner city will likely transfer through to the Senate.

  9. @Mick, that’s a good point about the western part of Banks. That said, I still think there is room to offset a possible decline by improving the Liberal vote in the eastern part, especially around Hurstville.

  10. AlexJ
    Yep i was expecting a correction. You will probably be proven exactly right. Call it instinct, or “my feminine side “!

  11. Connelly is confirmed to be running for Cowan according to Poll Bludger. It will be up to preselectors to choose him as the candidate however it seems likely

    How much does he lose to Anne Aly by? I believe the coalition will recover some polling deficit in WA by the next election but unlikely enough to stop Aly getting a swing to her.

  12. Ben
    Daniel’s comment & my response really ought to be in the Cowan thread, but we can’t access it.

    Daniel
    WA is going to be the most unpredictable state. we are all anticipating labor getting 2-3 seats But who knows, really ? In Cowan maybe Aly gets no real traction, & goes nowhere, while that happens, or even loses !
    Maybe a lot of those Labor voters from Stirling turn around ? Aly has a lot of new voters, so i hope she is prepared to work.

  13. Herewith the rest of the Crikey Article i placed in the Richmond thread . As is obvious this looks like Labor’s “scare/fear campaign strategy. Personally i’m thrilled that they are going to try this on !!. Absobloodylutely fabulous !!!. It will fuel the LDP campaign.

    I’ll postulate that since Julian Hill (Bruce) , & Tim Watts (Gellibrand) have been equally vocal, they would appear to be the ringleaders in this latest ALP “shit squad” >>>>>>

    An Essential Media poll late in the campaign showed 50% of voters thought it likely the Liberal Party would attempt to privatise Medicare if it won the election, 34% said it was unlikely, and 17% did not know. Of those polled, 81% said privatising Medicare — as well as changing its current form — was cause for concern.
    Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull was forced to declare that “Medicare will never, ever, ever be privatised”, which Labor counted as a success. The government’s response was widely criticised for being too late and for allowing Labor to control the agenda.
    So is Elliot’s social media campaign a legitimate new “Mediscare”, or simply freelancing to generate support in her electorate … and maybe earn a place in the shadow cabinet? On the evidence so far it seems to be the latter.
    Labor’s original campaign was effectively planned and executed, with a very substantial budget and heavy involvement of political allies. Elliot has received support from a handful of backbenchers, along with her assertion to The New Daily: “A lot of people in my area were raising their concerns. I’ve been inundated.”
    However, social media support — even when extensive — does not make a false claim true, as demonstrated by Donald Trump’s “big lie” about the US election being stolen.
    In her defence, Elliot — who was parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs and trade in the first Rudd government — says she “won’t be silenced”.
    But no matter how often she repeats her unsupported allegation, it seems most unlikely to have any wider impact.
    Tony Jaques is an expert on issue and crisis management and risk communication. He is CEO of Melbourne-based consultancy Issue Outcomes and his latest book is Crisis Counsel: Navigating Legal and Communication Conflict.

  14. winediamond I highly doubt Anne Aly will lose Cowan and the voters who’ve been transferred into Cowan (Balga, Mirrabooka, Nollamara among others) are working-class, largely multicultural voters who would be more likely to swing to Labor given the diversity of the sitting MP. This area of Perth is electorally stable and there’s almost no way Aly won’t retain the seat.

  15. Ryan Spencer
    What exactly did i fail to acknowledge ? We are talking COWAN/ STIRLING not Perth. 40-50000 voters moved out, & same in. are you saying there can’t be ANY surprises, nothing to see , everything under control !! ?. Bet Ann Aly has a different POV !!

  16. winediamond all the suburbs I mentioned were in Stirling (Balga, Mirrabooka, Nollamara) and I would consider that they would not put Anne Aly in jeopardy. The new Cowan also includes Tuart Hill, Dianella and Yokine, which, while more conservative than the others, effectively cancel out politically the inclusion of the Mirrabooka area, meaning nothing has changed, nothing will change, although the Greens vote is higher.

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