There’s been a lot of comments on various electorate profiles about the federal election that have been a bit more general than about a particular seat, and I’ve had a few requests for an open thread to discuss the federal election.
I’m working on a couple of other blog posts I’m hoping to put up later this week.
Petrie a bellwether seat despite of almost a 8% margin the seat will be fiercely fought for.
I think there are a number of seats in Queensland with inflated margins and it will be interesting to see how they go. The key is the One Nation Vote and the impact that this had on the result.
Grant, My seat is not in play I’m sorry, Mick Denton and Albanese have 0 appeal in this seat. To win Petrie you need to win over the swinging working class suburb of North Lakes, Howarth is extremely popular here and he even got a swing to him in 2016 despite Malcolm Turnbull being lukewarm up here.
Petrie is no longer a bellwether and if Labor wins it, they are looking at a large majority, When Howarth retires it will probably be in play but Labor’s chances are remote here. Deception bay even was 50-50 at the last election! Mick Denton’s only success will be safely winning D-Bay but Howarth will handily win North Lakes and Mango Hill because I live here and I can tell you every election there are Howarth signs all over North Lakes.
In Victoria, Liberals privately conceding Casey as in serious threat with the departure of the popular Tony Smith. A lot might ride on the candidates here. With Morrison really on the nose in Victoria, Chisholm also looks hard to hold if the rumours of a strong Labor candidate prove true. Corangamite now also looks so much harder for Liberal Party, while Dunkley had already dropped out of the discussion.
@Daniel In what sense is North Lakes working-class? Data from the 2016 census places it in the top 15% most socioeconomically advantaged suburbs in Queensland. (Deception Bay on the other hand is in the bottom 10%.)
I don’t mean to question your understanding of your own place of residence – just seeking clarification. Perhaps I have a different image of “working-class”.
Right now I’m predicting:
LNP gains:
Hughes (from IND)
Hunter
Macquarie
ALP gains:
Hawke (new seat)
Chisholm
Casey
La Trobe
Deakin
Boothby
Pearce
Swan
GRN gains:
Griffith
(If Liberals preference GRN>ALP they gain Cooper, Wills, Canberra)
Other commentary:
Further swings against ALP in Western Sydney but they hang on to Greenway and Parramatta the way they usually do and too much margin elsewhere. Shortland and Paterson swing to LNP but Labor hang on unlike in Hunter. Central Coast hard to say so assuming status quo for now – Robertson is the only ALP Gain I can imagine in NSW. Sophomore surges keep Eden Monaro and Gilmore red. Shooters and Indies could shake up regions but unlikely.
Very little improvement in QLD but they hold all current seats from sandbagging (biggest risk is Blair). Most likely ALP gains Forde and Bonner but I don’t see it happening. Labor go nowhere in regional QLD (except maybe Leichhardt if Entsch goes).
Bass and Braddon firm up for Liberals, but Brian Mitchell holds on in Lyons so nothing to see in Tas.
Greens vote improves in Macnamara and Richmond but they still come 3rd. Greens vs ALP runoffs in several seats (Cooper, Wills, Grayndler, Canberra, maybe Fraser), none winnable without Liberal preferences. Green vs Liberal runoffs in Brisbane, Ryan and maybe Wentworth (if Phelps doesn’t run) but likely LNP retains.
Higgins a genuine 3 cornered contest, probably Lib retain and ALP>GRN. Kooyong strong battle for 2nd but Frydenberg will probably hold on.
Sharkie likely to retain Mayo but isn’t necessarily safe and Mayo may return to Liberal hands if she falls below combined Labor+Green in exclusion order. Highly depends on campaign strategy.
All other crossbenchers (not counting Craig Kelly) safe. Phelps probably wouldn’t beat Sharma if she tried again in Wentworth. I’ll keep an eye out for strong new indies in regional Vic but no contenders yet.
Senate:
QLD 2-4 left/right, Hanson beating 4th LNP, toss up between ALP2 and Greens
VIC 4-2 (3 ALP + Greens)
Last SA seat hard to predict. I think Greens will get it leading to 4-2. Griff and Patrick gone but Xenophon himself could get up if he returns to politics.
In WA ALP3 and GRN is a toss up. GRN favoured over ALP3 in NSW and Tas.
Lambie reelected.
ACT best Green result ever but probably not enough to take Zed down.
John I’m glad Sukkar, Porter, Wood, Kelly and Fitzgibbon are gone. Lambie is not up for re-election at this election btw. All in all balanced and fair. A rarity on these blogs at the moment 🙂
John
Why do you think Labor will take Victoria ?.Indi will go back to the Libs. Chisolm fair enough.maybe Casey on the best of days etc.But the others? Really?. Boothby would be incredible surprising. OTH WA could easily go your way. Qld will be bad for Labor They could easily end up with 2 seats, won’t end up. I won’t speculate on the Hunter till we see hoe many parties nominate. Zali will lose Warringah, but who to ?
If you are thinking that Morrison leads, that is no longer a done deal. He could resign. You heard it here first !
Ryan Spencer
WOW !!. I could quote Mr Wolf from “Pulp Fiction” But Ben would have to put me into “Moderation” (AGAIN~) !!.
Ryan Spencer – my mistake on Lambie, I (correctly) remembered her getting a 6 year term in 2016 but forgot about Steve Martin. Says it all.
A normal 3-3 in Tasmania with Greens beating ALP3. Northern Tasmania will be too blue for 4-2. Sue Hickey might be able to get a Liberal seat – but I haven’t been keeping up.
Winediamond – I think Victoria has become polarised against the federal government over COVID. The “prime minister for NSW” sentiment might stick around There’s some anti Dan Andrews sentiment but I see Morrison getting hit hard even among anti-lockdown types. I think Boothby falls from an (unhappily) retiring local member rather than statewide factors.
I’m mostly gonna make some general observations because I think predicting every single seat this far out from an election is sort of ridiculous, and besides I don’t have more than a birds-eye view of the politics on the ground outside Brisbane.
Both the Coalition and Labor leadership are exceptionally weak. Scott Morrison leads a regressive, venal, corrupt government largely devoid of direction except for the need to distribute patronage to its big money donors (and enrich themselves in the process). Labor on the other hand are scared of their own shadow, afraid to stake their claim to any meaningful alternate vision or even a handful of concrete policy differences. Both leaders are woeful figures but at least Scott Morrison can still reliably get his shit-eating smirk on tv. Albo’s been a near irrelevance.
If you ask Labor simps about this the general line is that Albo’s keeping his cards close to his chest to whip out when the election’s called, to shock and awe the world for a great triumphal fairy-tale victory. I’ve become increasingly skeptical of that, not least because they can’t even muster the will to face down the Coalition on tax policy. But even if they had, you can’t build support for policies or weave that alternate narrative without sitting down and starting your story. Compare that to Tony Abbott’s campaign against Rudd and Gillard. Every single day, no matter what the government said or did, he was on tv railing against them and insisting that ‘this is a bad government’, over and over and over and over. The actual policy merits were irrelevant. He was one of the most far-right-wing leaders the Liberal Party have ever had, he was such a bigoted, ridiculous character and so full of shit, but at least he had the guts to stand up and get his face on tv and oppose the government like an opposition leader. As much as the beltway conventional wisdom venerates sensible centrism, the truth is people like a try-er. Albo is like a scared little mouse in comparison.
The inevitable retort to *that* is, well look at Kevin 07, look at any number of recent state Labor wins. I’ll start with Rudd: he lead Labor in a media environment that, even little more than a decade later, is barely imaginable now. He had the support of the Murdoch media machine and Fairfax wasn’t controlled by the former Liberal Treasurer. There is absolutely no chance they’ll be pulling for Albo. The state Labor governments on the other hand have the advantage of incumbency and a good story to tell about their stewardship over the covid crisis, with the exception of Victoria. Federal Labor shouldn’t expect similar good will to necessarily extend to them because of the states.
Nonetheless the COVID situation is probably the hardest club they have to whack ScoMo with. The Ruby Princess is a distant memory now but the current wave isn’t, and might well last for months yet, and the Premier ScoMo credited with the ‘gold standard’ is clearly to blame. That combined with perceived favouritism with offering more federal support for NSW’s lockdown will probably hurt them in Victoria but I doubt it’s going to be enough to unseat all that many. Even that’s likely not to be as much of a factor by the time election rolls around, because I fully expect Scott Morrison to put it off for as long as he thinks he needs to, just like he did last time. The only time he’ll feel safe to call it is when he gets vaccination levels back up to 1st world levels and the lockdown is lifted. He has every reason to expect the public will forgive him, after all they’ve clearly forgiven Boris Johnson and his government’s handling was some of the most spectacularly negligent if not downright malicious of any country on the planet. Some might think that’s a bit grubby, clearly Turnbull did, but Scott Morrison has never been one to fudge a few scruples for political expediency so I’m exceptionally confident that the election will not happen any time soon.
So mainly for those general reasons I think Labor’s general election prospects are very slim. The fact that they’re also reportedly targeting seats they lost in a landslide in 2019 while ignoring winnable seats with favourable demographic changes speaks to either a deluded leadership or one so disdainful of the people that like to vote for them that it hardly matters anyway. One possible bright spot is that One Nation will probably factor less into this election than last, and they were a major driver of Coalition preferences, but even that’s not assured. Right now I expect a Coalition victory, but a day is a long time in politics, let alone 6, 9 months. Labor might get lucky.
Fully aware that I’ve already droned on a very long time I still have one major point to add: if the Coalition pull a fast one and change the vote back to OPV, Labor have absolutely no chance in hell of winning.
Furtive Lawngnome
if the Coalition pull a fast one and change the vote back to OPV, Labor have absolutely no chance in hell of winning. Can they actually impose OPV ? is that possible at a fed level?
i’ll take issue with Kevin 07. Media support was not crucial. What was pivotal, was Rudd promising everything to everybody, & amazingly being believed, & accepted with little no scepticism. 2007 was the grandest deception. His oily flattery, disingenuous grandstanding, & incredible duplicity were truly grossly revolting, & australia bought it all.
If anyone wants to challenge that Rudd was australia’s worst ever PM. i refer you to what his colleagues said about him publicly. The ABC documentary on his downfall, & the simple reality that his own side assassinated him BEFORE 2010. Much as Rudd would like to blame Murdoch for his problems, his issue is personal, he feels enraged, because he was UNWANTED, & ostracised . Egoic death for a type2 fixation. Turnbull is not much different, or better. Megan Markle has done to the Royal Family what the Ghost has done to the LIBS, & what Rudd did to Australia. It is called jealousy betrayal, transference, projection, & Vengeance. Ugly toxic stuff.
When some of my friends lecture me about politics, i’m reminded of when they believed in, & voted for for these & other reprobates. My instinctive reaction is similar to when my 3 Dachshunds want to smooch me after sharing a meal of each others excrement !!
Winediamond, it’s my impression that the method of voting is essentially decided by the Commonwealth Electoral Act, and that you can change it with an act of parliament and without requiring a referendum. But I don’t know, I could be completely wrong. I can bore people with American constitutional minutiae but I really haven’t the foggiest when it comes to Australia.
Can’t really be bothered arguing with you on the rest of it. If you want to believe the man who owns Sky News, 70% of Australian print media and nearly 100% of Queensland’s print media doesn’t influence elections, to say nothing of his international media interests, or that the tens of millions of dollars the mining lobby spent ousting Rudd (that we know about) was similarly irrelevant, then that’s a take I guess.
Furtive Lawngnome and Winediamond
The voting system is decided by the parliament through the Electoral Act. It is the determining of the numbers through the nexus and apportionment between the states that is dictated by the Constitution.
On OPV, I would like to see it for the House of Reps – after all, we effectively have it now for the Senate. I would like to have the chance not to vote for a candidate, otherwise sooner or later (with rare exceptions) your vote will end up with one of the majors. It can be a case of hold your nose and drop your vote in the box if you don’t like either major party candidate – as was the case in my seat in 2019. At least now in the Senate, I now know that my vote won’t at some stage end up with some sort of nut job.
Compulsory PV makes the big parties lazy – Labor just has to look at the Greens preferences flow in without doing a thing to earn them. OPV makes the downstream party earn the preferences.
I’ve always numbered every box at every election, and always will. Heaven forbid, if the count gets down to One Nation (my second-last preference) versus Australia First (my last preference), I’d absolutely want my vote to elect One Nation. Not numbering every box is a sincere vote only if you believe that the candidates you dislike the most are all equally bad. Preferences give voters a great deal of power, and those who care about politics should use it to its fullest extent.
That being said, I believe in principle that preferences should be optional for the same reasons why I believe in principle that voting altogether should be optional – you are only diminishing yourself by not voting. And you are only diminishing yourself by not allocating preferences.
OPV can be introduced by amending the electoral act, however, that requires a parliamentary majority, which it lacks for two reasons:
Most to all non-Coalition parties oppose it, meaning it can`t pass without a Coalition majority in either the Senate or a post-DD joint sitting.
The Nationals are generally not in favour of it because they wish to retain the ability to have 3-cornered contests. (This is probably the main reason that OPV was not introduced in Victoria and WA by Baillieu-Napthine-era/Barnett-era Coalition majorities).
Boothby should be a Labor gain but no Labor candidate there and a strong female Liberal on the ground might make it harder for Labor
Predictions by state (looking only at competitive seats)
VIC
Casey: This could be close with Tony Smith departing and general swing to Labor in VIC but I think there is enough rural character for Libs to hold barely. LIB HOLD
Chisholm: The Libs will lose this with a swing to Labor in metro Melbourne. ALP GAIN
Cooper: Ged Kearney. Need I say more. ALP HOLD
Deakin: Too much Bible Belt for a Labor gain. LIB HOLD
Flinders: Greg Hunt will hold on as his margin was reduced mostly due to Julia Banks running. LIB HOLD
Higgins: Due to current lockdown blame will go to Morrison. GRN GAIN
Kooyong: As there is no credible IND challenger, Frydenberg will hold on. LIB HOLD
La Trobe: See Deakin above. LIB HOLD
ALP +1
LIB -2
GRN +1
NSW (only competitive seats)
Banks: David Coleman will hold on as he is a popular MP. LIB HOLD
Dobell: I thought the ALP were done here but with the current lockdown it will be very close. LIB GAIN
Eden-Monaro: Kristy McBain will keep this. ALP HOLD
Gilmore: Labor won due to split in Coalition vote. LIB GAIN
Greenway: MICHELLE ROWLAND WILL KEEP THIS DUE TO COVID. ALP HOLD.
Hughes: LIB GAIN.
Hunter: No lockdown here so Nats will win off coal. NAT GAIN.
Macquarie: I don’t think Susan Templeman will quite make it over the line. LIB GAIN.
Paterson: This is a hunter seat so Swanson will lose: LIB GAIN.
Reid: Due to COVID there will be a ~2% swing to Labor here: LIB HOLD.
Shortland: See Paterson. LIB GAIN
ALP -6
IND -1
LIB +6
NAT +1
Rest of the country (only competitive seats discussed)
Blair: This is the Michigan of Australia. LNP GAIN
Lilley: See Blair above. LNP GAIN
Longman: There is now an LNP incumbent here so he will win. LNP HOLD
Boothby: LIB state government have handled COVID well so the Libs will keep this. LIB HOLD
Hasluck: Mark McGowan. Need I say more. Plus Ken Wyatt could retire. ALP GAIN
Swan: See Hasluck above (-retiring sitting MP). ALP GAIN
Pearce: Controversial sitting member in a very red environment. ALP GAIN
Bass: Nothing to see here despite the seat hating sitting MPs as Morrison is popular in NTAS. LIB HOLD
Lyons: I think Labor will hold by 1% as they would have in 2019 without Jessica Whelan being disendorsed. ALP HOLD
REDISTRIBUTION leads to ALP+1 LIB-1
OVERALL CHANGES (since current parliament (redistribution not taken into account but defection is))
Coalition 80 +4
Labor 64 -4
GRN 2 +1
IND (inc. Mayo) 4 -1
KAP 1 0
seats hard to predict…. of course eden monaro, gilmore macquarie close as are marginal…… but all have a rural or semi rural component and are probable alp hold. the Hunter Valley seats are not marginal and will be alp held. Greenway and Parramatta can be close… but like Albos set will remain alp whilst contested by sitting mp. More to come
Marko
You missed Indi, & Warringah.
I always think it is folly to prognosticate months out from an election, but for what it’s worth…
There seems to be a general consensus that Victoria won’t be pretty for the Coalition; I do not agree with this sentiment at all. The Coalition has a low ceiling in Victoria but a high base and the published polling doesn’t show anything terrible for the government at all. While I think this NSW vs VIC divide plays well in the media, I really don’t think it will affect the election one iota. Therefore, you have very few seats liable to change hands, Chisholm being the only seat really at risk. Casey, Higgins and La Trobe will be close but I doubt Labor will win them now when they couldn’t in 2019 with all of the so-called ‘moderate suburbanite backlash’. Of course, the flipside to this is that I don’t rate the Coalition’s chances very highly in Dunkley or Corangamite. Haines to hold Indi.
A few people have spoken about the lockdown in Sydney as the death knell for the government – again, I don’t agree. For one, this ignores the published polling which has consistently showed NSW to be one of the better states for the Coalition (even the state polling shows Berejiklian has remained strong, lockdown notwithstanding). Looking to the Victorian example with their multiple lockdowns last year, people have generally been pretty understanding of the situation so I am skeptical that this will cause any long-term damage to either the state or federal government’s prospects here. Besides, many of the seats at risk are outside of Sydney anyway – Shortland, Hunter, Paterson etc. The important caveat of course being the vaccine rollout shambles which *may* be a problem if it persists for too long. Hughes to revert to the Libs and Warringah to remain with Zali.
The northern Tassie seats are solid for the Libs. Bass may throw a wrench into the works as the classic ejector seat, but it is difficult to argue with Labor’s abysmal state results in the area. This is the sign of blue-collar voters in the north continuing to abandon Labor. I think Lyons will swing to the Libs, but the margin is probably too large to overcome.
QLD shows it’s usual volatility in polling, but it is a more reliably conservative state than WA. I think it will be like 2004 all over again and the prophesised swing will amount to very little. Even if Labor garner a respectable 2-3% swing statewide, the Libs have the advantage in that their target seats have favourable demographics. I can easily see a situation where Labor pick up a general swing and yet lose seats (i.e. Lilley and Blair). Labor ought to forget north QLD, the margins are waaaaay too inflated to bother, even if ONP preferences revert to their historical normal. As always, the battle will be in and around Brisbane, the main targets being Dickson, Longman and perhaps Brisbane and Ryan.
The Coalition have been outperforming the partisan lean in WA for nearly 15 years now. I think a big swing back to Labor is inevitable, but only see Swan and Pearce as likely to go. Hasluck is possible, but as long as Wyatt is there I think Labor will probably fall short.
As for SA, Boothby is at risk but I think the Libs will probably hold it. Sharkie is in trouble in Mayo but incumbency may help her survive.
Overall, I’d tip the Coalition as the narrow favourites to win. Nevertheless, they can’t afford to let this perception of a shambolic vaccine rollout persist much longer. Regardless, Labor still have a strong chance of winning.
WD
What do you mean “You missed Indi and Warringah”? I do not see either as competitive as both have incumbent indies.
Ok general observations only:
1. Victoria – I think the ALP will win back Chishiolm, thats it. Nothing else changes. Haines holds Indi.
2. Qld – ALP loses Blair and Lilley. ALP win back nothing.
3. Tasmania – status quo- Lyons and Bass both close but incumbents hold on.
4. WA – ALP win Swan and Hasluck (0nly if Wyatt retires).
5. NT – CLP win Linginari.
6. SA – status quo. Margin in Boothby increases for LP on Marshall’s pandemic popularity.
6. NSW – LP win Macqaurie, Parramatta, Dobell and Gilmore. Do not win back Warringah (Lib candidate selection is very important) or E-M. The margins in Lindsay, Reid and Banks take them to 58/42 type seats. Libs win back Hughes.
Overall, roughly that’s a plus 6 to the present 75 seats. So I’m in general alignment with Wreeathy, its about 80/65/6 in the present analysis. The shape of there map for the ALP is terrible, where they are best (Vic/SA) there are very slim pickings. Ewa will be good for them I just don’t see them gaining anywhere else.
Pretty optimistic Marko. The polls have a 2% swing AGAINST the government in NSW before the current lockdown and you are predicting a 6 seat gain (ignoring Hughes) to the LNP. You may well be correct for some of these seats, outside of Sydney, but as they say “when there’s a swing, it has to come somewhere”. Maybe it will be seen in Reid, Banks and Bennelong – maybe a big swing but fall short in North Sydney…
Moderate
Why do you have the Libs winning Parramatta but not Greenway or Hunter
High Street
I do think there will be a swing in Banks and Reid to Labor but not enough in magnitude for them to win either as both are trending against the ALP.
I’m looking forward to seeing this election result – it will be high efficient. The Liberals will win 10 seats in NSW by <2% but ALP will win 0 by same margin!
Marko – Owens retiring, Roland not. Pure and simple.
You really think there will be a swing TO the ALP in Banks??
moderate who said Owens was retiring? If you don’t have evidence to back up your claim I’m afraid you are only assuming
Gentlemen
Perfectly happy to be on my own with this one. You are ALL WRONG !. Indi & Waringah will be lost. who to is another question. Haines is no McGowan, a health bureaucrat of 30 years, & a nurse briefly prior. That is not bringing much to the table.
Zali is just completely up herself. If tony re-contested she might a chance…! I will be volunteering for John Ruddick. Be WARNED ALL of you i will risk being “moderated” by Ben to defend John ! The gloves are OFF !!.
winediamond, Why would the liberals win a rural seat? Won’t happen in your wildest dreams, Haines will hold Indi because this is a rural seat and if Tony Windsor,Rob Oakeshott and the former member for Calare during the Howard era all managed to get re-elected what is your reasoning for the liberals to win this rural seat off an independent? Won’t happen.
Zali is in danger because that is a city seat but Indi is not. Benambra is also likely to be a lost cause for the libs at the next state election. You’ll be lucky to see Susan Ley win again if the Nats decide to go against her. The nationals are the only electable option for regional australia.
WD – John Ruddick is the new Cory Bernardi. Everyone got so excited with the formation of Australian Conservatives in 2017 – and then it fizzed out magnificently.
Ruddick doesn’t even live in the seat and wouldn’t know the difference between South Steyne and North Steyne. I’m sorry mate, but you are massively misreading Warringah 2019 if you think a move to the right is the right way to go.
Daniel
Being a rural indie is no bulletproof vest. Unless you are vale Peter Andren. Or Maybe Tony Windsor before he sold out to Gillard. ANYWAY I ALREADY ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION “Haines is no McGowan, a health bureaucrat of 30 years, & a nurse briefly prior. “. Try to be a good lad and acknowledge things like that. You have been doing so much better lately ! Also i posted on Farrer/Ley AGAIN…
Moderate
Is this a left/right thing ?. No way. Are the Lib Democrats more “right”? Or do we just have a Labor govt in all but name ? Only one thing is crucial —Patriotism — There is room for a new Nationalist Party or an alignment (coalition?) of them (minor parties)
As for the local thing. Thats covered in other threads. Who knows where the boundaries will be. I’ll remind you that in 27 years of residency in “the Cove” I’ve been redistributed 4 times, & had 6 MHRs !.
“”HIGH STREET” has been subjected to even worse rough trade by the AEC !!
Cory is an Enthusiast/Epicure Personality Type 7. They always move on, as he has. The comparison is wildly inaccurate. Ruddick has committed his life. That is no small thing. iT IS A CAUSE THAT I STAND READY TO BLEED FOR !!.
i will remind you, & directly challenge you to identify ONE, just one positive attribute that Zali brings to the table ? Over to you mate !
cheers WD
ps Zali being a local doesn’t cut it !
I really can’t see much change in Victoria at all. Chisholm will go down to the wire because whatever you may think of Gladys Liu, she is a fighter.
The Libs do have a small advantage as they probably don’t have to sandbag as much as last time – Kooyong and Flinders are probably more secure. Higgins will still be a struggle but Katie Allen is highly thought of so that definitely helps.
On Casey, it is a seat of two halves, more conservative to the north around Lilydale and more left wing in the south in the Dandenongs. However, the north is growing and the south is not so that also provides some buffer. For what it is worth, the state seats in the north all stayed with the Libs in 2018, whilst they went to Labor in the 2002 and previous landslides. Unless, the Lib candidate is a real dud, they should be fairly comfortable.
redistributed
“Higgins will still be a struggle but Katie Allen is highly thought of so that definitely helps.” Says who ? No one iv’e talked to. More to the contrary
I honestly think that there will not much of a change in Victoria. I’m confident that Chishiolm will go to the labor party maybe the Greens win Macnamara otherwise there will be no change elsewhere in the state at the current date that I have written this.
I honestly think that there will not be much change in Victoria. I’m confident that Chishiolm will go to the labor party & maybe the Greens will win Macnamara. I do no see change elsewhere in the state at the current date that I have written this. I do see a swing away from the liberal party but not enough to unseat any other MPs.
WD – you and I are in violent agreement that Zali has bought nothing to they able. We just disagree (equally violently) on the solution.
If you think and out of electorate staunach conservative will win Warringah, then imho you are Mike’s off the mark. Let’s wait and see eh. No hard feelings WD!!
I think there is a sentiment for change. Just follow News Corp or Sky News in the recent weeks of the lockdown.
It will be hard for Labor and cannot see where seats will be picked up.
I like to follow the trend of where the Leaders or Party Celebrities (e.g. ex Prime Ministers) are gong. In WA you could tell whether the Liberals were confident of picking up a seat or sandbagging just by where John Howard went.
The list below is a list of possibles for Labor and Liberals
WA – Labor – Swan, Husluck and Pearce and don’t discount Moore the member is not all that popular and it is were Labor had strong growth in the WA election. No chance for Liberals to pick up a seat
QLD – Albo has spent a week in regional QLD so there must be something there. The Hanson impact will not be great and were do those votes go. I would suggest seats like Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn have inflated margins due to the Hanson impact. Leichhardt maybe time for change. Metro Brisbane may be interesting. Lilley and Blair possible LNP
NSW – Liberal possibles Hunter (though the Hanson factor will be reduced) Dobell, Gilmore, SHortland Paterson (notice all non-Sydney seats). Macquarie. Labor possibles – getting very hard – Lindsay, Roberston and Reid. State where there will be most change and the key factor will be how long the lockdown (NSW did not learn the lessons of Victoria and that will tell)
Vic – Chisholm (too much controversy last election) Deakin, LaTrobe and Casey (new member and Tony Smith was a great speaker – to put the PM in his place on more than one occasion says something) Liberal nil possibles
SA – Boothby
ACT – nil change
Northern Territory – nil – interesting LNP is putting their best person for the Senate which may say something
Tas – Labor – Bass and Braddon (on the fact it changes member every election since 2013 and has a big habit of changing members.
Just some thoughts
Moderate
Never any hard feelings mate. Why do you see Ruddick as a “staunach conservative “.?. Libertarians are about individuality, & freedom. Ive been a member (LDP) for 10+ years. Philosophically we align to certain views from all over the political spectrum, even shamefully, or ironically the Greens !
cheers wd
Only because he’s lived on the hard right fringe of the Liberal party for the past 20 years or so.
Polls don’t decide elections. Voters do. So everyone saying Labor will win based on the polls is wrong. You get that lefty Nate Silver boasting about how right western polls are but he has always been known for being biased and supporting the far-left.
Not impressed with the pundits one bit not just him. They should visit regional areas and speak with them. They will call them out for their nonsense. Social media has done nothing but attack this government even when they were right, they always find something negative to say about them.
Before you talk about Murdoch and newscorp. Well at least he is speaking the truth. That’s all that matters to me.
The coalition will win the next election and the 2025 election.
John
i apologise . I missed a comment that was personally directed by you to me. RE Victoria. Playfully i could respond that “who knows what Victorians think or why !??”. More seriously you could easily be right about the impact of Premier Andrew’s propaganda & dissembling abuse. Best con man /liar I’ve ever seen. One day (who knows when ?) No one will believe anything he says.
Moderate
“Hard right fringe” ? . interesting POV. Perhaps this is his first order of business ?. Perhaps Ruddick needs to have a clear philosophical position ?. What would concern you, or other Warringah voters about the “Hard right fringe”?
If that’s what you think of Nate Silver, Daniel, you’ve entirely missed his point, as he often points out. He doesn’t at all say “western polls are right” but that there is uncertainty in them, and you can’t pre forecast how that uncertain will play out – if you could, pollsters would correct for it!!
Nates’s First Rule of Polling is something you should think about…
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861945983143469056
I’d say the fact he spent all day cheering on the anti-lockdown douchebags and encouraged them to come out every weekend until lockdown was lifted, regardless of cases, isn’t likely to win him a lot of friends in Warringah. Or anywhere really.
To start with WD him being a ringleader of yesterdays disgraceful anti-lockdown “march” which was nothing more than anarchic thugs. That’s gonna help his prospects in warringah how?
James
Deakin is always considered as a possibility for Labor, but it has too much Bible Belt.
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