Federal election guide finalised


For those who haven’t already noticed, I wanted to let you know that the guide to the next federal election is now finished and up on the website in total.

The guide includes profiles of all 151 House of Representatives races, and all eight Senate contests.

You can use these links to see a full list of lower house links:

Or you can use this map to navigate to any seat of interest. Click on the seat and a pop-up box will appear, including a link to the guide.

And here are links to the eight Senate contests:

Please let me know if there are any errors by commenting on the relevant post or by filling out the contact form on the front page of the guide. I will make some small changes as the election gets closer, and will occasionally do updates of candidate lists.

Meanwhile I am now posting one seat per day for the Victorian state election.

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  1. Macnamara (former Melbourne Ports) Liberal preselection is on 02 Sep 18 (Sunday) which probably means that Kate Ashmor may be a contestant as Zionists dont like working in Saturday, except on election day.

    This means that McNamara will have Zionist candidates in both major parties in the electorate, with Josh Burns preselected, in a dodgy branch stack with some delegates locked out, and no choice in the end between them in the preference distribution.

    Another reason for the better first past the post voting method like in the UK.

  2. My full prediction: Labor majority government

    Seat count (seats gained) (seats lost)

    ALP: 92 (+24) (-2)
    L/NP: 50 (+1) (-25)
    Greens: 4 (+3)
    Other: 3 (McGowan, Wilkie, Sharkie) (-1)
    Circumstantial: 2

    ALP Gains:
    SA: Boothby
    Vic: Dunkley (notional retain), Corangamite, Chisholm, La Trobe, Casey
    NSW: Gilmore, Robertson, Banks, Page, Reid
    QLD: Capricornia, Forde, Flynn, Petrie, Dickson, Bonner, Dawson
    WA: Hasluck, Swan, Pearce, Stirling, Canning
    ACT: Bean (notional retain)

    LNP Gains:
    QLD: Kennedy (from KAP)

    GRN Gains:
    Vic: Macnamara
    NSW: Richmond
    Qld: Brisbane

    Circumstantial (seats where the outcome highly depends on an unknown)
    Cowper (IND if Oakeshott runs, LNP if not)
    Grey (CA if Xenophon tops the CA senate ticket, LNP if not)

    ALP will retain the following LNP target seats: Solomon, Lingiari, Bean, Herbert, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Bass, Braddon
    LNP will retain the following ALP target seats: Leichhardt, Sturt
    ALP will retain the following Green target seats: Cooper, Wills, Griffith, Canberra
    LNP will retain the following Green target seats: Higgins, Ryan

    Green 2PPs:
    LNP vs GRN: Macnamara*, Richmond*, Brisbane*, Ryan, North Sydney, Warringah, Mackellar, Wentworth, Higgins, Kooyong, Curtin
    ALP vs GRN: Melbourne*, Cooper, Wills, Gellibrand, Grayndler

  3. For senate prediction, the following got 6 year terms from the 2016 election

    LNP: 16
    ALP: 13
    GRN: 3
    CA: 2
    PHON: 1
    CON: 1

    My predictions:
    ACT and NT: ALP 1, LNP 1
    SA: ALP 2, LNP 2, CA 1, GRN 1
    NSW: ALP 2, LNP 3, GRN 1
    VIC, SA, WA, QLD, TAS: ALP 3, LNP 2, GRN 1

    LNP: 31
    ALP: 31
    GRN: 9
    CA: 3
    PHON: 1
    CON: 1

    Prediction: GRN sole balance of power

  4. That prediction would only be valid if Dutton became leader, if turnbull was leader than it would be closer but still a Labor Majority Gov.

    Based on your seats.

    Brisbane will be LNP hold (Trevor Evans is very popular and very high profile)
    Kennedy will by KAP hold (Bob Katter has held on with worse he will be fine)
    Richmond is 50/50 between GRN and Labor

    Other seats that are unlikely are Pearce, Hasluck, Stirling, Dawson, Boothby.

    In terms of Senate;
    Pretty accurate though 3rd NSW LNP is in doubt.
    QLD Will definitely have 1 ONP or KAP or UAP
    TAS will definitely have 1 Jacqui Lambie
    VIC Might have Derryn Hinch
    WA will have 2 ALP 1 GRN 1 LIB (2nd Lib is only guaranteed with Turnbull as leader if Dutton is leader that seat is in doubt) The 6th Seat would be a contest between 3rd Labor and One Nation or WA Party or WA Nationals (rumour is brendan grylls will comeback which would be a large increase in their vote)

  5. Cool to see someone stick their neck out predicting the whole thing John!

    I don’t think anyone can fault an estimate of ~90 ALP lower house seats, that’s certainly what the evidence is pointing to.

    I agree with your prediction that parties to the right of the Coalition (One Nation, KAP, Australian Conservative, LDP, and Palmer’s UAP) will win 0 seats, as they are going to get in each-others way. Surely Hinch, Lambie, and Tony Windsor (is he running?) are a chance though.

    It’s a supremely hot-take to predict WA and QLD (!) will elect 4 left wing senators. You’ve accidentally listed SA twice, I assume the one with 1 CA elected is correct. Tim Storer has to hurry up and make some noise or he’s toast, I think you are very correct in saying he won’t win (unfortunately, I think he’s a decent parliamentarian).

    Interesting that you don’t rate the Greens in Wills or Cooper but you do elsewhere. I assume your reasoning is that with a collapsing federal Coalition vote the direct GRN vs ALP races will be ALP favoured? That probably is sound. I think it would be fair for you to get to get a chance to amend your prediction post Victorian state election, Greens tend to convert gains/loses in areas fairly well from state to federal and vise versa.

  6. Responding to Bennee:

    In QLD I think both will happen
    – ALP will beat the LNP on primary votes, due to the LNP leaking heavily to further right parties and the ALP targeting such a large number of seats.
    – The far right vote will be strong, but too split (between Lyle Shelton, Katter/Anning, PHON and Palmer) and not flow evenly enough to get any of them elected, nor a 3rd Liberal, with both KAP and PHON flowing strongly enough to Labor (as well as exhausting)

    NSW on the other hand I think Leyonhjelm will be the most popular far right option and his preferences will cleanly flow to the Liberals, who I think will also beat Labor in primary votes, thus being the only state where Liberals win 3 seats.

    WA as discussed over on that page I think will elect 3 Labor, 2 Liberal 1 Green with results approaching that of the state election (with the same economic issues driving the vote). I expect Liberals to be slightly stronger and Labor and PHON to be slightly weaker than that election, but not by enough to get them in the running for a 3rd seat.

    Storer is toast and at best I can see him coming back the following election as a Labor or Green politician. Also to be clear, I only see SHY surviving, on a low primary vote, due to outlasting everyone else once the first 5 quotas are distributed. This is dependent on CA getting slightly over a quota (say 1.1 to 1.3 quotas). CA doing worse and their votes flowing back to both majors would probably knock out the Greens and SA would be a simple 3-3 result. If they do better, it will be 2-2-2. CA is a wildcard and the result in Grey entirely depends on whether the brand is strong enough to run a proper campaign.

    Tasmania I think will elect 3 Labor senators due to the Lisa Singh/Ginninderra Effect. Lambie isn’t what she used to be. Vic will simply have a very high left wing vote and Hinch doesn’t really fit in anywhere.

    I considered Greens possibly having a chance at the ACT senate seat due to an inflated vote in Canberra, but Liberals are buoyed by the same factors in a newly competitive Bean.

    For lower house Green seats, I had Cooper as a maybe (with a campaign based on Ged failing to change the ALP policy on refugees and coal), but with Alex Bhathal not recontesting and no candidate in sight I don’t see it happening. Wills is a degree of difficulty harder than Cooper.

    I do however see the Greens winning votes in blue ribbon seats, especially with any leadership change (but even without it). Brisbane in particular I think had an exaggerated LNP vote due to Turnbull’s honeymoon and is far more marginal than it looks, and that’s without the PHON preferences issue that depressed the LNP vote in Brisbane at the QLD state election. Greens have plenty to work with in the seat, and ALP will have higher priorities in QLD. Ryan is also an outside chance (especially with PM Dutton) but the Greens didn’t pick a candidate who could capitalise on the Jane Prentice issue.

    Other wild possibilities include Nick Xenophon contesting the seat of Sturt, and getting ALP preferences this time, but it’s too far away to predict those sorts of things.

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