12:30pm – That’s all I’ll be posting today. I’ll be back on the weekend with an updated pendulum, and will be putting together the map in coming days.
12:26pm – On a primary vote basis in Mayo, the Liberal Party has dropped 1.1%, NXT has dropped 1.9%, and Labor has jumped by 3.1%, thanks to inclusion of Boothby and Kingston, which were seats where Labor competed much more strongly.
It’s also worth noting that the Liberal-Labor 2PP figure in all three seats where NXT broke into the top two have seen Labor’s position strengthen. I will have to make my own estimates of the LIB vs NXT margin in these three seats, but won’t happen until tomorrow.
12:20pm – So here are the toplines:
- Labor has lost its sixth seat, thanks to the merger of Port Adelaide and Wakefield into Spence, which is a very safe seat.
- The extremely marginal Labor seat of Hindmarsh has become reasonably safe, while Adelaide has also got a lot safer, and Makin is a bit safer.
- It’s hard to predict the margins in Barker, Grey or Mayo because there were parts of these seats where the two-candidate-preferred count didn’t involve NXT. So that’s why these margins haven’t changed much. About 86% of Grey and Mayo were already in the seat before the redistribution, while the figure is just over 90% for Barker.
- The Liberal Party’s position has got weaker in Boothby and Sturt.
12:15pm – Here are my margin estimates.
|Seat||Old margin||New margin|
|Adelaide||ALP 4.7%||ALP 8.3%|
|Barker||LIB vs NXT 4.7%||LIB vs NXT 4.2%|
|Boothby||LIB 3.5%||LIB 2.7%|
|Grey||LIB vs NXT 2%||LIB vs NXT 1.9%|
|Hindmarsh||ALP 0.6%||ALP 8.4%|
|Kingston||ALP 17%||ALP 13.5%|
|Makin||ALP 9.7%||ALP 10.8%|
|Mayo||NXT vs LIB 5%||NXT vs LIB 5.3%|
|Port Adelaide||ALP vs NXT 14.9%||Abolished|
|Spence (Wakefield)||ALP 11%||ALP 17.1%|
|Sturt||LIB 5.9%||LIB 5.4%|
12:08pm – Here are my estimates of the 2PP and primary vote.
|Seat||ALP 2PP||LNP 2PP||ALP prim||LNP prim||GRN prim||NXT prim|
11:56am – It turns out the redistribution was released at 11:30am east coast time, not Adelaide time (as predicted by the AEC) so I’m just catching up now. Will have estimates in a few minutes. It appears Wakefield and Port Adelaide have been merged as the seat of Spence.