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Any idea on the seat pendulum and margins?
I haven’t calculated, but Antony has these posts:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/01/final-nsw-federal-electoral-boundaries-announced.html
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/01/electoral-pendulum-for-the-2016-federal-election.html
The Queensland and SA state redistributions are getting under way too. The SA one has actually “started”, but they haven’t provided the enrolment figures yet(!) so nobody can do anything yet.
Assuming population trends are as expected, Queensland will need to lose 2-3 seats in rural areas and/or southern Brisbane. New seats will be needed in the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast/Caboolture, and maybe in the growth areas around Ipswich.
SA will probably need a significant overhaul to meet the fairness criteria. The redistribution committee itself has flagged that tinkering at the edges has not worked, and bigger changes may be needed.
While we’re at it, the Federal redistribution of the Northern Territory closes on Friday. I’ve just submitted my suggestion. Only a very minor review, but I couldn’t find a way to not split Palmerston.
Yep, same.
I will be curious to see if either of the major parties propose more radical change, given Solomon is highly marginal.
SA needs MMP, not bizarrely shaped divisions intended to engineer proportionality for the two biggest parties.
Well….the only reason the divisions are “bizarrely shaped” is because they’ve spent years just tinkering at the edges. Even they seem to admit now that this hasn’t worked, and that a more significant re-draw of seats might be necessary. Population trends seem to support this too.
So if there is more scope for change this time, it should be easier to draw more “sensible” looking boundaries.
It’s a fools errand to try and make single-member electorate boundaries “fair”.
These maps are excellent. Thanks.
Any chance a version of NSW could be created with fewer layers (or perhaps just smaller partial NSW maps), so that it could be imported into Google Maps?
Sorry I won’t be doing that. You can download the map, open it in Google Earth and save particular folders as their own KML/KMZ files.
Thanks Ben. I appreciate the tip
It is likely that sensible boundaries in SA will always tend to favour the ALP in statewide votes-for-seats terms, because the rural areas are so deeply conservative and the city more closely balanced.
If they want to get a statewide 50/50 2PP giving 50/50 seats they’ll probably need to create a bunch of part-rural/part-suburban divisions radiating out from Adelaide like spokes on a wheel.
If proportionality is desired then it would make considerably more sense to implement New Zealand-style MMP, so that divisions can be drawn purely on a geographical / community-of-interest basis and proportionality achieved with top-up seats as necessary.
I don’t think the SA redistribution will be as messy as you suggest, kme.
If a rural seat is abolished and create a new very safe ALP seat in the northern suburbs, that solves most of the fairness problem right there. Seats like Light can move into the rural areas, and the marginals in the northern/eastern suburbs can all move southwards. Since the Liberal vote gets stronger as you move south, the fairness criteria is being dealt with “naturally” without any need for contorted gerrymandering.
Since the population trends also favour creating a new seat in northern Adelaide, this change addresses both fairness and quota issues at the same time.
Well, after nearly nine years as a constituent of Tanya Plibersek in Sydney, as a result of the redistribution, at the next election I will be voting in Grayndler… so I will see you all on that thread, when the time comes.
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