Final update for Saturday night
|Party||Votes||%||Swing||Electorate seats||List seats||Total seats|
|New Zealand First||186,031||8.85||2.26||0||11||11|
11:48pm – I’m going to check out now, but I’ll be back tomorrow with a general update. I don’t think we’ll see any more changes in the seat count tonight. Over the coming days we’ll be watching the special votes to see if the party votes might change the number of list seats each party wins. The 12th New Zealand First candidate is ranked 122nd, while the 14th Green candidate (Steffan Browning) is ranked 127th. In addition, we’ll have to keep an eye on the result in Hutt South to see if Trevor Mallard can hold on. Auckland Central is also close, but both candidates in the race are guaranteed list seats if they lose the race.
11:20pm – It seems like the only electorate seat in play is Trevor Mallard’s seat of Hutt South, where he is only 1.07% ahead with one booth to come, as well as special votes.
11:16pm – Labour has now won a 32nd seat, although they are only just ahead of National for the final seat. The 12th New Zealand First candidate is still ranked 122nd, and the 14th Green candidate is still ranked 128th.
10:51pm – Labour is on the verge of gaining a list seat off National – what was 41 votes is now 5 votes. National will still have a majority of seats if they lose this seat.
10:48pm – I’m going to remove Te Tai Tokerau from my list of close seats – Harawira is still trailing by 6%. That leaves only two seats. Labour’s Trevor Mallard is leading by 1.07% in Hutt South, and National’s Nikki Kaye is leading by 2.7% in Auckland Central. Both leading candidates are in Auckland Central will definitely be in Parliament, as will National candidate Chris Bishop in Hutt South. But if Trevor Mallard falls behind he will be eliminated from Parliament, and a different Labour MP will return to Parliament on the party list.
10:41pm – I’ve built a spreadsheet that allows me to see which list seats are still vulnerable and could switch. At the moment the 120th seat is the 62nd National seat. Ranked 121nd is the 32nd potential Labour seat, just 41 votes behind – although the National vote is divided by 123 and the Labour vote is divided by 63 at that point. Right behind at 122 is the 12th New Zealand First candidate. After this are another two Nationals, then another Labour, then another National, then the 14th Green in 128th position.
10:34pm – Here’s three other relatively close seats worth watching:
- Auckland Central – National MP Nikki Kaye is leading by 2.5% over Labour list MP Jacinda Ardern. Ardern is ranked very highly, so will be re-elected regardless of the result.
- Port Hills – Labour MP Ruth Dyson is leading by 4.7%. Dyson’s electorate was redistributed into a notional National seat, so Dyson has managed to rebuild her majority.
- Te Tai Tokerau – Mana MP Hone Harawira is now trailing Labour list MP Kelvin Davis by 6.4%.
10:32pm – Labour MP Trevor Mallard – who is not on the Labour list – is leading in Hutt South, but his lead is diminishing. He’s now leading by 1.1% with almost all of the vote in. That may be enough, but it’s the most interesting seat remaining.
10:24pm – We’ve now got 95% of the count, and the National vote has not dropped, and it doesn’t look like it will. The National Party would need to drop two seats to not win a majority, so it looks like National will form the first one-party majority in the 18-year history of the MMP electoral system.
10:19pm – A number of seats that looked very close earlier seem clear now:
- Christchurch Central – National MP Nicky Wagner is leading by 7.2%
- Maungakiekie – National MP Sam Lotu-Iiga is leading by 9.3%
- Palmerston North – Labour MP Ian Lees-Galloway is leading by 7%
- Te Atatu – Labour MP Phil Twyford is leading by 8.5%
- Waimakariri – National MP Matt Doocey is leading by 6.3%
10:13pm – Maungakiekie is now looking solid for the National MP, who is ahead by 8.9%, after earlier being stuck in a dead heat.
10:09pm – Hone Harawira is 6% behind in Te Tai Tokerau with 89% of the vote counted.
9:37pm – The Māori Party is now polling sufficient party votes to win a second seat – but it’s a list seat. Marama Fox would become the first ever Māori Party list MP.
9:33pm – Looking at the other key minor party races: Labour is leading by 8.55% in Te Tai Hauauru and 7.9% in Tamaki Makaurau, so it seems the Maori Party’s only chance of winning a second seat is increasing their party vote and winning a list seat. Peter Dunne is leading by 4.2% in Ohariu.
9:26pm – I’m calling that the National Party will be forming the next government
9:25pm – A large chunk of the vote has now come in and the Labour and Green votes have not climbed back much. The prospect of the National Party winning a majority in their own right is now looking quite likely.
9:20pm – Labour won 22 electorates in 2011, and this time they are on track for 28 seats. Despite this increase, the party vote has dropped, and so the number of Labour list seats has been dramatically cut – currently down from twelve to three. One new Labour seat (Kelston) was created in the redistribution, but the party is also currently leading in five other seats. Labour is on track to win back three Maori seats from the Maori Party and Mana Party, as well as Napier and Maungakiekie from National. The races in Te Tai Tokerau and Maungakiekie are very close. Labour is only leading by three votes in Maungakiekie.
9:18pm – Hone Harawira is falling further behind Labour’s Kelvin Davis – now a gap of over 2%.
9:14pm – There is an exact tie in Maungakiekie right now.
9:10pm – National is now sitting on 63/121 seats, with Labour winning Te Tai Tokerau. While a Labour win in Te Tai Tokerau will be good for Kelvin Davis, it’s definitely not good for the left – on the current numbers, both of those Internet Mana seats would shift to National if Harawira loses.
9:03pm – Scratch that, Kelvin Davis is now 38 votes ahead of Hone Harawira.
9:02pm – Hone Harawira is leading in Te Tai Tokerau by only 11 votes.
8:36pm – The National Party vote just climbed slightly and the party is now on 62 seats, taking one away from the Green Party.
8:35pm – If you take 0.6% away from the National Party and give it all to the Conservative Party, the party would win six seats. Three of those seats would come from National, two from Labour and one from the Greens.
8:31pm – The Conservative Party are on 4.4% of the vote. If they hold around that level, that’s a big chunk of the right-wing vote that has gone to waste, but if the Conservative vote climbs by 0.6% then it will significantly shift the result.
8:20pm – Most major party electorate races are producing predictable results but in Napier the Labour candidate is 15% ahead, with the sitting National MP retiring.
8:12pm – The advance vote has become a lot bigger over the last few elections, and has doubled since 2011. Basically they’ve counted all the advance vote and very little has moved since then – in about half an hour we’ll start to get election-day figures in large numbers.
8:11pm – United Future’s Peter Dunne is leading in his seat of Ohariu by 4.2% ahead of Labour, but is polling only 0.2% of the vote nationally, so if he wins he will create a one-seat overhang.
8:04pm – ACT’s David Seymour is comfortably leading in Epsom, but ACT is polling as poorly as expected, so at the moment are on track to only win one seat.
7:59pm – At the moment the National Party is on track to win a majority in their own right. I’m sure that won’t last, as more votes come in. The Nationals are finding it easier to win with a smaller overhang due to the possible defeat of Māori Party candidates.
7:55pm – There are a number of very close electorate races. Labour candidate Adrian Rurawhe is narrowly leading in Tariana Turia’s seat of Te Tai Hauāuru. The Labour candidate is also leading in Pita Sharples’ seat of Tāmaki Makaurau. The sitting National MPs in Maungakiekie and Auckland Central are just ahead of the Labour candidates in their seats.
7:54pm – Unfortunately I had to redesign my results model but you can now follow the results above.
7:50pm – At the moment the National Party is polling at 48.3% of the party vote, the Labour Party is polling 23.6%, the Green Party 10.1% and New Zealand First 9.1%. It’s far too early to know what will happen – presumably Labour and Green will pick up steam.
7:32pm – We’ve already got a large amount of advance votes that have been counted and there’s a few interesting races. At the moment, the Māori Party is trailing in two of their three seats: Te Tai Hauāuru and Tāmaki Makaurau, and Hone Harawira is only just ahead in Te Tai Tokerau.
7:00pm – Welcome to the Tally Room coverage of the New Zealand election. Polls have just closed in New Zealand. I’ll be covering the results all night. I’ve developed a prediction model which I’ll be trying out – but it has its limitations. For those electorates which have reported party votes, I will be weighting their vote based on the number of votes counted so far, and then extrapolating the swing to calculate what I expect to happen in other electorates.
However there will obviously be substantial variation within electorates which my model won’t take into account. In particular, we will be expecting the advance votes (known in Australia as prepoll votes) to report first, and in the past they have favoured the National Party. If the model is not performing well, I will turn it off and only work off raw figures.