Federal election open thread

29

There has been a fair amount of comments on individual seat profiles that deal more generally with the federal election generally rather than that specific electorate.

If you are commenting on an individual seat or on one particular region please continue, but general discussion about the election should take place here.

I will try and post an open thread at least once a week unless I have posted other blog posts dealing with the overall election campaign.

This week we have seen the option for an August 31 election date disappear, as Labor has continued to be effectively tied in the polls with Tony Abbott’s Coalition.

Monday’s BludgerTrack analysis has the polls at 50-50, with some polls favouring one party or the other within the margin of error.

The conventional wisdom now appears to have moved to September 7 as the likely election date, which would require the election to be called over the coming weekend.

It’s unclear if the ‘conventional wisdom’ is based on hard information, or will just continue to assume that the election will be called at the upcoming election until Kevin Rudd eventually calls the election, and they are right.

When do you think the election will be held, and how is the race looking?

Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!
Become a patron at Patreon!

29 COMMENTS

  1. I wish I knew when, maybe this weekend will put us all out of our misery. I’m overseas all October so I do hope you are right Ben (or “conventional wisdom” is) with Sept 7. Or any time before October, as I do so enjoy elections…

    And (on a totally irrelevant note) I may actually get to vote twice. My elderly mum is in a nursing home now, I’ve just changed her electoral addtress and I’ll have to organise her postal vote, I suppose… She was always cagey about who she voted for, but finally I’ll get it out of her. Not that I’ve ever cared, I have friends and family who have political allegiances all over the place. They’re all smart people and I love them all.That’s the great thing about Australian democracy: It doesn’t really matter all that much. Right, Tallyroomers?

  2. I think your thought that the conventional wisdom will be whatever the nearest possible date is until Rudd calls the election is right. On the other hand, there is a decent chance the broken clock will be right one of the next two weeks, meaning an election on 7 or 14 September. This is based on a few assumptions:

    1. Rudd doesn’t want the election to conflict with school holidays.
    2. He doesn’t want Parliament to return.
    3. He doesn’t want to prorogue Parliament.

    The first is, I think obvious, but is also one the one that leads me to say “decent chance” rather than near certainty. As for the second, Rudd has rolled out policies he intends to take to the election. Actually legislating for them now (to the extent he actually could) would defeat the purpose. Proroguing seems unlikely. It would open him up to charges he is afraid of Parliament. Worse, it would telegraph that he intends to delay calling an election. That would add “the people” to the list of people he is supposedly afraid of. And from a different perspective, Rudd has played his cards close to the vest on this, so the suggestion that he would give the Coalition the comfort of knowing it will be a few weeks before the election is called just doesn’t feel right.

    Those assumptions give us 7 or 14 September because there are school holidays in the three largest states on 28 September, in all states on 5 October, and in the three smallest states on 12 October. A maximum-length campaign called on 19 August can only stretch to 12 October, so Rudd would need to either face or prorogue Parliament to get to the next free Saturday, 19 October.

  3. If the polls stay close to 50:50 TPP the election will be won by the ALP in Queensland when all the anti-Julia votes swing back to Kevin. They lost a lot of seats when their man was “knifed in the back” by Julia Gillard. Now he’s back!

  4. I’m convinced that the election will end up in October, probably October 19th or October 26th. This places it in the first or second weekend in which there is no major interference – no sporting finals, no school holidays, no important religious events (that I know of). Furthermore, it positions the start of the election after the G20 summit, rather than before it.

    Notice that Labor has, so far, only worked on nullifying the Coalitions main advantages. They haven’t even begun working on selling their strong points. Also notice that Gillard decided to rush to the election in 2010, and that didn’t work out too well – after the switch to Gillard, polls rose sharply… but within a few weeks, it came down again. Rudd needs to solidify himself as not only the incumbent, but the one who is firmly in charge and getting things done. He needs to show caution, consideration, and consistency, and heading to the polls quickly works against that.

    With the major Coalition-dominant policy areas addressed, I’d bet that Rudd’s next step will be to call back parliament and start a series of socially liberal reforms in areas where the nation has clearly shifted relative to the law. Greens, Wilkie, and Thompson would probably all support the move (and Greens in the Senate mean an easy passage), leaving Rudd only needing to win two more over – and Slipper, Windsor and Oakeshott would be willing to listen, I’d imagine. These are the sorts of things that look like pandering when used in an election campaign, and that tend to polarise the electorate in a bad way. Addressing these in parliament would allow Rudd to establish better trust with voters who vote socially liberal – meaning, Greens voters, mostly – while allowing them to focus on economic issues in the actual election, and avoid polarising things too much.

    Notice that the October dates I’ve suggested also give Labor one month of parliament before the writs being issued.

    Pollster – amazing how you’re predicting 152 seats…

  5. Glen,

    If that’s the way it goes down, that’s bad news for Labor. Rudd needs to shore up support in the centre, not the left. Bleed off of left wing voters to the Greens is only meaningful in a couple of seats and in the Senate. Also, you need to go into an election running for something. If you enact the popular things you want to do now, you no longer have them to run on. The only sensible reason to let Parliament meet that is readily apparent is forcing the Coalition to block something popular rather than to enact something popular. Then Rudd can hold that up as a reason or people to return the ALP.

  6. Sorry Ben, just read this. You can cut a couple of my comments under Forde if you wish which fit this mould.

  7. RichR – shoring up the centre is what he needs to do in the election campaign. That’s exactly why doing the socially liberal stuff beforehand is important. And I’m not suggesting that Labor needs to get first-preference votes away from the Greens, but that they need to convince people who will still vote 1 Greens to put Labor in second position; right now, with the PNG “solution”, etc, means that Greens preferences could very well split 50-50 Labor and Liberal, and that would harm Labor. But Labor can’t use those issues in the campaign itself, because it can drive away some people who support Labor for the economic issues. Labor needs the election to be on economics, not social issues.

    And as you say, Labor can also force the Coalition to block something popular – in which case, again, it’ll be mostly socially liberal things. Labor may, in fact, attempt to get gay marriage passed, knowing full well that the Liberals and enough crossbenchers will block it, despite the fact that more than 64% of Australians think that gay couples should be able to get married. Doing it in parliament, rather than campaigning on it, means that those who are against it but not passionate in their disagreement won’t pay it any mind, while it will still increase Labor’s cachet with those who support it; if they campaign on it, it’ll work entirely the other way around.

  8. If I may take the liberty Ben of copying DB’s general comments here (mentioned above) as they are most insightful;

    DB Posted August 2, 2013 at 12:26 PM
    “In Forde, I think we are seeing the primaries narrow to about even and Labor getting over the line on the back of Green preferences. They will probably win but it will still be a marginal seat.

    It appears the seats next to Griffith are getting a better bounce than the ones away from it. I’ve just been alerted to an article by Van Onselen in today’s Australian which has pretty much covered what I have written today in various post plus a few extra ones. (I am yet to read his article and don’t know how informative it is) But in summary, from what I know this morning:
    – ALP look like gaining a few seats in QLD, but could lose one or two. Moreton still seems tough for Labor given the candidate was pro-Gillard and anti-Rudd.
    – ALP look like losing a few seats (or more) in NSW, mainly metropolitan and Dobell. I’d put Robertson in that boat as well given it went agains the trend in the last election (although a sophomore surge applies to Deb O’Neill). Note, Kingsford-Smith might be a sleeper for the Libs as Thistleweight is seen to be backed by the NSW right and polling is very tight.
    – ALP look like losing a few seats (or more) in VIC (would not be surprised if something on a reasonably safer margin fell given a couple of the swings I am seeing)
    – ALP look like losing Bass and Braddon in TAS (I reckon Lyons is also in play) given the Reachtel poll this week. Braddon seems a surer Lib gain than Bass.
    – ALP look like losing one in SA (I reckon they could lose more than 1 given an ageing State Government impact).
    – little change in WA (Swan probably the best hope for the ALP although still behind. I don’t think Labor will win Hasluck based on current polling). ALP seem safe in Perth.
    – ALP look like losing Lingiari in NT, however, I personally place little value on polling here given a number of fractured communities with a lack of technology.

    I have heard reports ALP’s internal polling in marginal seats (no definition) it holds is 52/48 against and 53/47 against in seats it does not hold that are marginal. This would appear to flush out to around 51.5/48.5 to the Coalition as Labor hold more seats at the top end.

    As at today, I’d guess the best way to put it is that Labor would probably get 72 at best (roughtly what they hold), but the Coalition would probably get over 80, but dependent on a few of the seats in QLD.”
    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2013/forde2013/comment-page-1#comment-538700

  9. In response to DB’s comment from the Forde page, as posted by Yappo, I wanted to say that I agree that, if the election were held today, that would be the general result.

    And that is why Rudd shouldn’t rush to the election. Rudd has been working on Labor’s weaknesses, and that has restored the balance. But he still needs to emphasise Labor’s strengths before the election begins. Note that Labor is still working on getting the “Better Schools” thing done; with the Coalition now saying they’d keep it for the four years it officially covers, I’d say the chances are high that we’re about to see Victoria, at least, sign on (it would look bad for the Coalition if the two biggest states, both with Coalition governments, signed on while the federal Coalition was still against). Education has always been one of Labor’s strong suits, and a win there will go a long way to starting their real momentum.

  10. DB’s analysis does accord somewhat with the Oz LNP marginal “internal polling” article. I am always sceptical of these sort of self serving “leaked internal polling” articles and hence only take note of the admissions of what the respective party say they may lose. However, it does make for interesting reading as it reinforces the NSW v Qld dynamic for both parties.

    The LNP suggests they may lose – Brisbane, Bonner & Forde in Qld.

    But gain;
    Qld: Fisher
    NSW: Banks, Parramatta, Greenway, Lindsay and Reid, and Dobell from the ALP. Lyne & New England.
    Vic: Deakin, La Trobe and Corangamite
    Tas: Braddon and Bass. Note: the size of the leads had “worryingly slipped”.
    SA: Hindmarsh
    NT: Lingiari
    WA: nil

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/marginals-not-part-of-pms-swing/story-fn9qr68y-1226689794739

  11. Pattern here seems to be that Labor won’t win from 50% 2PP as they did (sort of) in 2010. Lyne & New England are part of story here but not all. The static benefits of Rudd are now apparent but dynamic benefits are required. if Labor add 1-2% to their vote they will win by combination of reducing losses outside Qld & gaining more in Qld. The campaign will be the decider & remember Rudd lost ground in the 2007 campaign.

  12. Simon Jackman’s latest article has an a very interesting analysis of all seats based ONLY on the betting markets (as of 1 Aug) which have the LNP taking 11 ALP seats – though Jackman notes some of these NSW marginals are now polling better. The betting markets only see Melbourne & Brisbane as ALP gains.

    His modelling of the probability for the ALP to gain a majority “given the current state of the betting markets, with only a seven in 10,000 chance that Labor wins 76 or more seats.”

    But do note, “The results of this analysis may reflect nothing other than the seat-by-seat betting markets simply flying below the radar for now, and hence somewhat uninformative as to the actual election outcomes.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/the-swing/2013/aug/02/betting-markets-labor-chance-winning

  13. I don’t agree with the analysis in Simon Jackman’s article this week and have given my reasons at length in an update at the bottom of my weekly roundup here:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch_30.html

    Two main issues:

    (i) The problem that seat probabilities are not independent of each other; indeed, not even near it.

    (ii) The difference between a party being favourite and a party having an implied win probability of below 50% – which in close cases results from inflated odds for longshots.

    (ii) leads into the problem that if his method for calculating theoretical probabilities is expanded out you get a parliament clogged with significant numbers of PUP and KAP and GRN and IND and so on in which one would hardly expect an ALP majority.

  14. QO: “the article claims Lnp is in front in more tonight and petrie”
    I don’t think that it says that – “amid hopes of snagging at least two Labor-held seats, Moreton (1.2 per cent) and Petrie (2.6 per cent),”

  15. Senate outcomes will be interesting.

    ACT Senate second seat should be safe for Liberal Party but the margin of safety is not large. Factors that might affect the vote:
    . Liberal candidate is much more conservative than the previous incumbent Gary Humphries who on social issues was much closer to views of the electorate than Zed Seselja
    . Zed may have burnt his boats with some electors after jumping ship for the Senate seat so quickly after the ACT election, which he failed to win
    – CPSU is fed up with the local ALP over persistent “efficiency dividends” applied to the public service and has reportedly stopped any pro ALP election activity

    For the Green Senate candidate to succeed two conditions have to be met:

    The Liberal Senate vote has to drop below a quota – 33.33% plus one vote ( probably down to about 30%)
    The Green vote has to be ahead of the ALP second candidate after the first quota has elected Senator Lundy.

    Unlikely but not impossible if it proves that Senator Humpries had any degree of personal following that doesn’t transfer to his successor.

  16. Does anyone else think Rudd has intended to stick with 14 September all along but thought Gillard was wrong to give Abbott eight months’ warning?

  17. RichR – I doubt it, because one of the specific reasons Rudd gave for deciding against it was that it was Yom Kippur, which would make it more difficult for Jewish voters. If he’d said it wouldn’t be September 14th without giving any justification, then you might have been right, but he specifically said why it shouldn’t be that day.

    Besides which, if the intent was to keep Abbott guessing, he could have just started giving various hints that point to different dates, without actually committing to anything (like “not September 14th”).

  18. Meanwhile, looks like I was right about the Coalition backflip on “Better Schools” – Victoria has now signed up. And a spokesman for the Qld education minister implied that, if offered a similar deal, Qld would sign on, too.

  19. The PM arr’d at Yarralumla 5 mins ago, seems the 7th will be the go but we’ll have to wait for Rudd’s presser.

  20. PM: “A few moments ago I saw the Governor-General and asked that she dissolve this parliament and call the federal election for September 7.”

    Have to confess some surprise as I was banking on a mid Oct date esp given my assumption that Rudd would want to attend the G20 Summit and that the ALP would need some more time to solidify gains and sell new policies. A return to a sitting fortnight would have benefited Rudd, I also believed.

    However, perhaps they see some bad figures coming in Sept – though the RBA will most likely decrease rates this or next month – and felt that there may be a decline in polling numbers from here? What is for certain, it is all down to who has the better campaign.

    If you believe the LNP narrative this is the worst, most dysfunctional & chaotic govt Aust has ever had. Yet, how is it that the ALP is now polling so well and will that hold come election day?

Comments are closed.