Europe 2009 – My predictions


So I’ve decided I’ll go out on a limb and make predictions for the European results.

I broke it down into each individual constituency and national party, then tallied them up into totals for Europarties. In some cases (particularly between the new European Conservatives and the UEN) there is not complete clarity as to which Europarty national parties belong.

My overall total was the following:

  • 254 European People’s Party (+4.19%)
  • 203 Party of European Socialists (-0.19%)
  • 74 European Liberal Democrat and Reform Society (-0.26%)
  • 53 European Conservatives (+2.23%)
  • 44 European Greens (+1.39%)
  • 36 Party of the European Left (+0.18%)
  • 29 Far-right MEPs (formerly Identity, Tradition, Sovereignty) (+1.39%)
  • 14 European Democratic Party (-1.28%)
  • 12 Independence/Democracy (-1.30%)
  • 6 European Free Alliance (+0.05%)
  • 3 Nordic Green Left (-0.10%)
  • 2 Libertas
  • 1 Union for Europe of the Nations (-5.47%)
  • 1 European Anticapitalist Left
  • 4 Others

Of course, I make no claim to this being perfect, but I reckon it reflects the reality. If this plays out, it would see the demise of the UEN and Independence/Democracy and the rise of a new centre-right group led by the UK Conservatives and the return of a far-right coalition after it collapsed during the last Parliament. You can download my detailed predictions here.

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