US08: It ain’t over ’til it’s over, but…


As an extra item for people to consider, Charlie Cook lays out how the metrics of the race show that Obama’s position is much stronger than what the polls say. The simple facts he lay out demonstrate Obama’s dominance and how John McCain will struggle to come close:

The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it’s only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn’t that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one. First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win. Sure, we have seen come-from-behind victories, but they didn’t come back this far this late.

Well worth reading in full.

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  1. Good point. That is why people are holding out on predicting an Obama win, but opinion polls are much more regular (indeed, there are now a dozen different daily tracking polls running now) and more sophisticated.

  2. What do you think of the “Bradley Effect”?

    I think the margin on the day will be slimmer than the polls – some people will get cold feet in the voting booth – and some people in the South and Mid-West won’t vote for what they see as “President N*gg*r” – disgustingly that term was actually used in one or two vox pops

  3. It is possible it could have an effect, although polls in the primary elections tend to suggest that the Bradley Effect has had little impact on Obama.

  4. There are numerous effects going on in this election. Ma

    The possible Bradley effect (anti Obama).

    Bush’s coattails (both ways). This depends on further economic rescue plans and international multilateral talks.

    Palin effect (both ways).

    Cell phone effect (pro Obama).

    Changing economic conditions (both ways). For example, if the DOW falls 1000 points on the day before the election, Obama may well gain a further election day bounce mirroring his previous ‘economic turmoil bounce’.

    Some other October surprise.

  5. The biggest impact on the polls will likely be changes in turnout. In primaries Obama managed to bring out African-Americans and young voters in huge numbers, as well as increasing turnout amongst Democrats in general. A lot of polls don’t reflect these when dividing up the sample.

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