Wagga Wagga by-election, 2018

Cause of by-election
Sitting MP Daryl Maguire is expected to resign soon, after recently resigning from the Liberal Party following an unfavourable appearance at ICAC.

Margin – LIB 12.9%

Geography
Southwestern NSW. The seat covers all of the City of Wagga Wagga and Lockhart Shire, and the parts of Snowy Valleys council surrounding Tumut.

History
The seat of Wagga Wagga was first created in 1894. With the exception of the period 1904-1913 and 1920-1927, the seat has existed ever since. The seat has been held by the Liberal Party since 1957.

The seat was held by the Country Party from 1927 to 1941, when it was won by the ALP’s Eddie Graham. He served as a minister from 1944 until his death in 1957.

The Liberal Party’s Wal Fife won the 1957 by-election. He served as a minister from 1967 until 1975, when he resigned from Wagga Wagga to contest the federal seat of Farrer. He served as a federal minister from 1977 to 1983. He moved to the seat of Hume in 1984, and held the seat until his retirement in 1993.

The 1975 Wagga Wagga by-election was won by Joe Schipp. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1988 to 1993, and retired in 1999.

Wagga Wagga has been held since 1999 by Daryl Maguire. He won the seat as a Liberal MP in 1999. He resigned from the Liberal Party in July 2018 after admitting that he had sought payment over a property deal at an ICAC hearing.

Candidates

  • Julia Ham (Liberal)

Assessment
Wagga Wagga is normally a reasonably safe Liberal seat. The seat is not likely to be in danger to Labor, but if the Nationals run the seat could be in play.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Daryl Maguire Liberal 25,06153.8+0.2
Dan Hayes Labor 13,08428.1+18.0
Paul FunnellIndependent4,5239.7+9.7
Kevin Poynter Greens 2,3205.0+1.6
Keith PechChristian Democrats1,1112.40.0
Joe SidotiNo Land Tax5151.1+1.1
Informal1,5483.2

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Daryl Maguire Liberal 26,70462.9-14.9
Dan Hayes Labor 15,75637.1+14.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Wagga Wagga have been split into four parts. There are three local government areas in the electorate of Wagga Wagga. Polling places in Snowy Valleys (mainly the Tumut area) and Lockhart council areas have been grouped together. Those in the Wagga Wagga council area, which covers a large majority of the seat’s population, were split between those in the city itself (“Wagga Wagga”) and those in the surrounding rural areas (“Wagga Wagga Surrounds”).

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all areas, ranging from 60.5% in Tumut to 71.7% in Lockhart.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Wagga Wagga60.718,46439.6
Wagga Wagga Surrounds66.54,90010.5
Tumut60.54,0768.7
Lockhart71.71,5023.2
Other votes65.66,43313.8
Pre-poll63.011,23924.1

Two-party-preferred votes in Wagga Wagga at the 2015 NSW state election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.