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I just noticed that Bennelong and Reid were Labor gains (from the Liberals) in 2022 and yet their current margins are higher those of Werriwa and McMahon. The latter two are traditionally Labor heartland seats. From what I have heard, Jerome Laxale is a fierce campaigner.
John Howard would’ve loved the current boundaries in 2007. The Lower North Shore was Liberal heartland back then. Successive redistributions shifted the seat westward and eventually it lost Lane Cove and Hunters Hill LGAs. In his final term, it was extended to Ermington. The current electorate is a bit more like John Howard’s earlier days where it was both east and west of Lane Cove River.
It’s more the Libs absolutely turning off voters in those 2 electorates which normally should be reasonably comfortable seats for them.
@Votante The 1974 (when Howard was first elected) and 2025 Bennelong boundaries are quite similar, the only difference is that 2025 stretches further west than 1974, and the 1974 boundaries compensated by meeting the North Shore railway line. Howard definitely would’ve held on in 2007 under these current boundaries.
@Dan M Bennelong, yes. Reid, not really, as Lowe used to randomly swing until it was renamed Reid. Also funny to point out that both are directly opposite the Parramatta River to each other, and both swung away from the Liberals at the same time.