Western Metropolitan – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Rachel Carling-Jenkins (Conservatives), since 20141
  • Khalil Eideh (Labor), since 2006
  • Bernie Finn (Liberal), since 2006
  • Cesar Melhem (Labor), since 2013
  • Huong Truong (Greens), since 20182

1Rachel Carling-Jenkins changed party affiliation on 26 June 2017, from the Democratic Labour Party to the Australian Conservatives.
2Huong Truong replaced Colleen Hartland on 21 February 2018 following Colleen Hartland’s resignation.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Altona ALP 12.6% Niddrie ALP 7.7% Tarneit ALP 14.6%
Essendon ALP 8.7% St Albans ALP 17.5% Werribee ALP 15.7%
Footscray ALP 14.5% Sunbury ALP 4.3% Williamstown ALP 16.5%
Kororoit ALP 20.0% Sydenham ALP 16.3%

The Western Metropolitan region covers the western suburbs from Sunbury in the north to Werribee in the south, and as far east as Williamstown and Essendon.

All eleven seats in the region are held by the ALP. None of these seats are particular marginal, with margins ranging from 4.3% in Sunbury to 20% in Kororoit.

History
Western Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

At the first election, the ALP won three seats, and the Liberal Party and the Greens each won one seat.

In 2010, Labor lost their third seat to the Liberal Party.

That second Liberal seat fell in 2014 to DLP candidate Rachel Carling-Jenkins, now a member of the Australian Conservatives.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Labor 191,60744.0-2.22.6390
Liberal 102,68123.6-6.91.4142
Greens 44,99110.3-1.60.6197
Liberal Democrats24,0805.5+5.50.3317
Sex Party11,7742.7-1.90.1622
Democratic Labour Party11,1832.6-0.50.1540
Palmer United Party9,6292.2+2.20.1326
Voice for the West7,7571.8+1.80.1068
Animal Justice6,6201.5+1.50.0912
Family First6,3551.5-2.20.0875
Australian Christians5,9731.4+1.40.0823
Shooters and Fishers5,4061.2+1.20.0745
Cyclists Party3,3460.8+0.80.0461
Others4,2311.0
Informal19,1974.2

Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor won two seats, and the Liberal Party won one.

We can fast forward to the last ten candidates running for the last two seats:

  • Colleen Hartland (GRN) – 0.6585 quotas
  • Stanley Chiang (ALP) – 0.6307
  • Andrew Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4148
  • Zeev Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3334
  • Rachel Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.3311
  • Vicki Nash (SXP) – 0.1677
  • Trevor Dance (PUP) – 0.1359
  • Berhan Ahmed (VFW) – 0.1266
  • Roy Taylor (AJP) – 0.0954
  • Jaxon Calder (FF) – 0.0947

Family First preferences flowed to Voice for the West, pushing Ahmed ahead of the Sex Party and Palmer United:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 0.6590
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6311
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4166
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3338
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.3323
  • Ahmed (VFW) – 0.2108
  • Nash (SXP) – 0.1681
  • Dance (PUP) – 0.1365
  • Taylor (AJP) – 0.0961

Animal Justice preferences gave a boost to the Sex Party:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 0.6625
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6319
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4171
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3340
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.3329
  • Nash (SXP) – 0.2537
  • Ahmed (VFW) – 0.2115
  • Dance (PUP) – 0.1371

Palmer United preferences flowed to the Greens:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 0.7894
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6329
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4181
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3346
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.3335
  • Nash (SXP) – 0.2550
  • Ahmed (VFW) – 0.2127

Voice for the West preferences flowed to the Democratic Labour Party, pushing Carling-Jenkins ahead of the LDP and Liberal Party:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 0.7933
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6343
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.5299
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4189
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3359
  • Nash (SXP) – 0.2571

Sex Party preferences pushed the Greens’ Colleen Hartland over quota as the fourth elected candidate. This left Hartland with a 0.03 surplus, which mostly flowed to Labor:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 1.0000
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6585
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.5317
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4245
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3419

LDP preferences favoured the DLP, pushing Carling-Jenkins ahead of Chiang:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 1.0000
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.8561
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6641
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4267

Liberal preferences elected Carling-Jenkins, leaving Labor out in the cold:

  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 1.2508
  • Hartland (GRN) – 1.0000
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6670
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.0040

Candidates

  • Huong Truong (Greens)

Assessment
The Greens have held a seat in this region since 2006, but it’s never been comfortable, and it will be a challenge to hold on. It will also be a challenge for Carling-Jenkins. Her new party doesn’t have much of a profile and didn’t perform well in the recent South Australian state election. She will depend on a strong flow of preferences which can be unreliable.

Labor would be hoping to win a third seat, but the Liberal Party would also be looking at a second seat.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the primary vote in the Western Metropolitan region. Labor also topped the vote in all eleven districts within the region.

Labor did best in Kororoit and in surrounding seats, and did worst in the seats closest to the Melbourne city centre.

The Liberal Party did best in the northernmost seats, and did worst in the middle spine of the region.

The Greens vote was highest closest to the Melbourne city centre.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Western Metropolitan region


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4 COMMENTS

  1. Rachel Carling-Jenkins is running as an independent in the lower house seat of Werribee. So basically she’s retiring from parliament.

    I think the Greens are doing a fair bit in Footscray and Williamstown, will be interesting to see if their upper house vote benefits. If it does it would pretty much assure Huong Truong gets elected before a 3rd Labor candidate does.

  2. I’d expect a result of 3 Labor, 1 Lib and 1 Green.
    That being said it’s hard to know how the 5th seat will fall due to preference flows.
    Whilst on paper the Greens position looks weak it’s hard to see them losing a seat to Labor and the Libs primary vote is unlikely rise enough for the second Lib to usurp the first Greens candidate, especially when the Greens are starting to take a concerted effort in Footscray and Williamstown, whilst maintaining a strong vote Essendon.

  3. The Green vote should be just high enough in Footscray, Williamstown and Essendon to help them retain their seat. The final seat will be a contest between a 3rd and a 2nd Liberal

  4. Vote for Sustainable Australia as they have a plan for:
    – Secure jobs via a more diverse economy
    – Affordable housing for first home buyers and renters
    – Better planning to stop over-development
    – A sustainable environment and population

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