Ripon – Victoria 2018

LIB 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Louise Staley, since 2014.

Geography
Western Victoria. Ripon covers rural areas to the west of Ballarat and Bendigo, including the towns of Ararat, Beaufort, Bridgewater, Maryborough, Stawell and Creswick. The electorate covers the entirety of the Pyrenees council area, and parts of Ararat, Ballarat, Buloke, Central Goldfields, Hepburn, Loddon and Northern Grampians council areas.

History
The current Ripon electoral district has existed since 1976. In that form, it was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 to 1999, and by the ALP since then.

The first Ripon district was created in 1945. It was held by the ALP’s Ernie Morton from 1945 to 1947 and again from 1950 to 1955. The Liberal Party’s Rutherford Guthrie held the seat from 1947 to 1950. The original Ripon district was abolished in 1955.

When Ripon was created in 1976, it was first won by Liberal MP Tom Austin, who had held the seat of Hampden since 1972. Hampden was abolished in the 1976 redistribution, and Austin moved to Ripon.

Austin served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1978 to 1982 and as Deputy Leader of the Opposition from 1985 to 1987. He retired in 1992.

Austin was succeeded by Steve Elder, who had been Liberal Member for Ballarat North from 1988 until the seat’s abolition in 1992. He served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Kennett government until his defeat at the 1999 election.

Elder was defeated in 1999 by Joe Helper. Helper has been re-elected in 2002, 2006 and 2010, and served as a minister in the Labor government from 2006 to 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Ripon is the most marginal Liberal seat in the state. The sitting MP should benefit from a new personal vote, but could still lose the seat very easily.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Daniel Mcglone Labor 14,05935.1-3.7
Louise Staley Liberal 13,11832.7+4.2
Scott Turner Nationals 7,34218.3-2.7
Rod May Greens 2,8567.1+1.2
Danielle FowlerFamily First8972.2-0.7
Trevor DomaschenzCountry Alliance4951.2-1.5
Mitchell LeeDemocratic Labour Party4901.2+1.2
Peter MulcahyRise Up Australia4481.1+1.1
Kevin LoitertonAustralian Christians3520.9+0.9
Informal2,7326.4

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Louise Staley Liberal 20,32950.8-0.9
Daniel McGlone Labor 19,72849.2+0.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Ripon has been divided into three parts, along local government boundaries:

  • North-East – Central Goldfields and Loddon council areas
  • North-West – Buloke and Northern Grampians council areas
  • South – Ararat, Ballarat, Hepburn and Pyrenees council areas

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote across Ripon, but this was only thanks to a large majority of the vote in the north-west, where they polled 61%. Labor won 50.2% in the south and 51.9% in the north-east.

The Nationals primary vote ranged from 15.9% in the south to 29.9% in the north-west.

Voter groupNAT prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South15.949.813,06032.6
North-East17.248.18,81622.0
North-West29.961.05,62014.0
Other votes16.650.46,87317.2
Pre-poll16.450.35,68814.2

Election results in Ripon at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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10 COMMENTS

  1. Labour gain, I think what is happening nationally (very unpopular coalition gov) could tilt this to labour, Victoria will swing to labour even at the next Fed, Labour should do much better here and gain this seat, Since the CFA dispute is long gone now

  2. There was a very high leakage from National to Labor in 2014. If the new Liberal member is even half good, she will manage to consolidate some of this to herself. I’d expect an above average swing to the Liberals here.

  3. @Daniel, ‘CFA dispute is long gone now’ – what planet are you living on? It’s still very much alive in regional Victoria.

    I think the issue is more pertinent now than it’s ever been.

    Agree @Peter, the leakage cost the Libs and makes this seat look far more vulnerable than it really is. With the absence of the Nats this time, the Libs should hold comfortably.

  4. Population trends favour Labor here with the expansion of the Ballarat suburbs where Staley doesn’t have much of a profile and where Labor is campaigning.

  5. I think you’ll find that Rural seats like these will have swings towards the Coalition but in Metro seats a swing towards Labor Especially in this election, The CFA and other rural issues will help the coalition while recent events such as yesterday’s attack will help Labor (The premier’s response might help him)

  6. On the ground, I’m seeing pretty much an equal number of Staley and De Santis signs. Any predictions as to which way this will go?

  7. The momentum statewide is very much in Labor’s favour, and the margin here is so small. Even if they happen to underperform here relative to the rest of the state they should still manage a 0.8% swing.

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