United Kingdom Archive

UK scandal brings flowering of reform ideas

Following the recent scandal in the UK, some senior figures in the Labour government have used the opportunity to push ahead with major democratic reforms:

An intense cabinet-level debate is under way on the format of this initiative, its timescale and the range of issues that would be discussed. The enthusiasts for wider reform include Harriet Harman, leader of the Commons, James Purnell, the work and pensions secretary, and David Miliband, the foreign secretary.

The discussions were launched inside the cabinet by the business secretary, Lord Mandelson, when he raised the idea of a British constitutional convention on the model of the Scottish constitutional convention.

What the modernisers inside the ­cabinet want on the agenda is:

• A referendum on electoral reform for the House of Commons.

• An elected upper house.

• Spending caps on donations to political parties.

• A widening of the base from which candidates are drawn.

It is a fascinating idea that the UK could finally move on such major democratic deficits as the first-past-the-post electoral system in the House of Commons and the continued existence of the appointed House of Lords.

Indeed, the Guardian today has launched a Comment is Free series packed full of opinion pieces from their journalists proposing dramatic changes to British democracy, from reducing the number of MPs to an elected upper house, proportional representation in the House of Commons, directly-elected mayors and the abolition of the monarchy. You can register as a user and join in the debate.

It would be fascinating to have such a debate in Australia. Part of me thinks that, even if we aren’t in a position to do it on a national level, it’s plausible we could see a constitutional convention take place in New South Wales. Indeed, after I tweeted this afternoon about the debate within the British government over reforms, I got this response from the man who will likely be the next Premier of New South Wales:

ofarrelltweet

BNP vs Greens in North West England

As a follow-up to yesterday’s profile of the UK race for the European Parliament, I thought I would feature this campaign website for the Green Party’s candidate for North-West England, Peter Cranie.

The Greens, in addition to their seats in London and South East England, are focusing on North-West where BNP leader Nick Griffin stands a real chance of winning a seat.

The Greens have managed to get left-wing party RESPECT to withdraw in North West to avoid splitting the vote, and to explain the voting system and why this means a vote for the Greens is the best method of defeating Nick Griffin, they have produced this YouTube video.

MEPs in Great Britain, and in many other EU countries, are elected using the D’Hondt method. As explained in the video, in each round the party with the most votes is elected, and every party’s votes are divided by the number of seats they have previously won, + 1. It is similar to the counting system used to fill seats in the New Zealand Parliament (although in that system votes are divided by twice the number of seats won, plus one, so the divisors are 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, etc, rather than 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 etc).

In 2004, the second Liberal Democrat was elected on a vote that was about 8%, while Griffin polled 6.4% and the Greens polled 5.6%. Considering recent polling following the expenses scandal, the scenario the Greens put in the video seems plausible.

Below the fold I’ve posted a request for donations I received, if anyone feels like giving money.

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Europe 2009 – United Kingdom

The United Kingdom will vote for its Members of the European Parliament on Thursday 4th June, the  same day as elections for England’s 27 County Councils and a number of other local government bodies.

While the UK elected 78 MEPs in 2004, this will fall to 72 seats in 2009. The UK’s MEPs are elected using a D’Hondt party-list proportional representation electoral system, with the exception of Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland elects its three MEPs using the Single Transferable Vote. England’s MEPs are divided into the nine governmental regions while Wales and Scotland’s MEPs are elected as a single group.

The 2004 election saw large swings against both major parties, with the votes swinging mainly to the United Kingdom Conservative Party, and to a lesser extent the Liberal Democrats. The result for England, Scotland and Wales was:

  • Conservative (European Democrats) – 27
  • Labour (Party of European Socialists) – 19
  • UKIP (Independence/Democracy) – 12
  • Liberal Democrats (ALDE) – 12
  • Green Party (European Greens) – 2
  • Scottish National Party (European Free Alliance) – 2
  • Plaid Cymru (European Free Alliance) – 1

The election in Northern Ireland saw each major unionist party retain one seat, while Sinn Fein took the one republican seat away from the SDLP.

Since the 2004 election UKIP has suffered difficulties working as a functioning team with such a large group of MEPs, and have lost three of their 12 MEPs over the last term. Polls recently have shown a large increase in the vote by minor parties in the European election in the aftermath of the expenses scandal, which has damaged the standing of all major parties. Polls indicate that UKIP has returned to the polling levels which netted the party 12 seats in 2004, and that Labour is in danger of falling below either UKIP or the Liberal Democrats. Polling numbers have also risen for the Greens and the British National Party, raising the spectre of the far-right party winning seats in the north of England.

UK map update

Amongst everything else, I’m still working on my Google Earth map of House of Commons constituencies. I recently finished work on the seats in the South West region and uploaded the latest version to my maps page. The latest version of the map covers 212 of the 650 seats that will elect MPs at the next general election.

UK election animation

ukmap

I’ve come across an interesting election animation, showing the electoral map of every UK election since the Reform Act of 1832, showing the geographical distribution of Conservative, Labour and Liberal/Liberal Democrat seats since that time as a cartogram.

You can clearly see the shift over time, with the appearance of Labour in the late 1800s and the decline of the Liberals from the time that the universal franchise was introduced in the early 1920s.

UK Parliament boundaries

So the UK will see a general election either this year or next year, and the election will see a new set of boundaries being used in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, while Scotland last had a redistribution before the 2005 election. I’ve started drawing the electoral boundaries in Google Earth. It’s a big task, so I thought I’d upload what I’ve done so far. I’ve completed two regions of England, being Greater London and the South East. Collectively these regions elect 157 MPs, just under a quarter of the House. You can access it here.

2009 election preview: United Kingdom

The next UK general election must be held by June 2010, so strictly it may not take place within 2009. All UK general elections since 1979 have taken place within the April-June period, so the only two likely election date possibilities are in the spring of 2009 or the spring of 2010. There is intense speculation in the UK at the moment of the prospects of an early election in 2009. While Brown remains well behind in the polls, there is an argument that his increased popularity in recent polls gives him his only shot of securing another term in office.

Gordon Brown has had a bumpy time as Prime Minister. He led early in his term, which led to speculation in late 2007. The first half of 2008 was dominated by disastrous polls and by-elections for Labour, losing two safe seats (one to the Conservatives and one to the SNP) and performing poorly in other races.

Because of the large number of seats held by parties other than Labour and Conservative, there is a significant possibility of a hung parliament at the next election. It is estimated that a swing of between 1.6% and 6.9% would result in a hung Parliament. The Liberal Democrats hold 62 seats, the SNP holds seven with prospects of large gains, and seats are also held by Plaid Cymru in Wales and all 18 seats in Northern Ireland are held by local parties. Collectively a party can win a substantial lead in seats without winning a majority.

Furthermore, electoral geography substantially favours Labour. It is estimated that the Conservatives would need to win by at least 6% in order to be the largest party in Parliament.

Opinion polls have favoured the Conservatives since October 2007, when polls turned against Brown. Conservative leads became solid in early 2008, with Labour failing to poll over 30% in any poll from May to September. The Glenrothes by-election in November happened as Labour gained ground in the middle of the global financial crisis.

The latest polls still put Labour well behind the Conservatives, but within range of winning a minority government at an early election.

Prospects for minor parties vary. The Liberal Democrats polled 22% in 2005, their best result since polling over 20% in the 1980s as the SDP-Liberal Alliance. However, nearly all opinion polls in the last two years have put the LibDems in the high teens, well below the heights of 2005. This does not necessarily mean that the Liberal Democrats will lose ground at the next election, but their rise appears to have been blunted by the resurgence of a credible Opposition.

The Scottish National Party currently hold seven seats in Westminster, six won in 2005 and a seventh won at the Glasgow East by-election. The SNP won office with a massive swing at the Scottish election in 2007. Despite falling short at the Glenrothes by-election, it appears that the SNP are on track to win a substantial number of Scottish seats, making them a player in their own right in Westminster, akin to the Bloc Quebecois rising in Canadian federal politics.

Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, have made nowhere near as much gains as the SNP, but could be expected to pick up extra seats at the expense of Labour in the next election.

Considering the positions of the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Nationalists, an interesting scenario that is entirely plausible is that we could see a similar situation in the UK as we currently are seeing in Canada, with a strong left-of-centre minor party and left-of-centre separatist party controlling the balance of power. It will be fascinating to see the consequences in the UK if the LibDems and the SNP are finally given a taste of power.

Gordon Brown coming back in the UK

Gordon Brown had a pretty awful year, with losses of safe seats in by-elections and massive poll leads for David Cameron’s Conservatives. But since the beginning of the global financial crisis, Brown’s seemingly successful attempts to get his plans adopted by other western countries, and his recovery in the Glenrothes by-election, Gordon Brown has appeared to be back in the game. This has been reflected in the latest Guardian/ICM poll, which has reduced the previous 45-30 lead for the Tories to a bare 5-point lead, with the Conservatives on 38, Labour on 33 and the Liberal Democrats up one to 19.

Julian Glover at the Guardian predicts that this could be the trigger for an early election in 2009. Since Brown cancelled plans in late 2007 for an early election, it has been expected that his long-suffering government would push out the next election to mid-2010, the latest time to hold a general election. Yet it appears that Brown’s handling of the financial crisis has given him a window to have a shot at holding onto power. The latest poll would suggest Labour coming out as the largest party in a hung parliament, which would likely lead to a second election not much later, and would likely resemble Canada’s recent history, which saw a Prime Minister replaced by his finance minister who then lost his government’s majority and forced to an early election.

However, the point remains that, while Brown could call an election any day, it remains hard to see him staying in power, and a late election in 2010 remains the most likely outcome.

How do we elect our leaders? Part one

After the events of the last few weeks further demonstrated the inability of Stephane Dion to remain as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Dion announced last Monday that he would resign as soon as the party chose an interim leader. Dion had announced his resignation following the October election, and a leadership convention was planned for May, with three contenders.

On Monday 8th, Dominic LeBlanc withdrew and supported Michael Ignatieff, and Ignatieff’s main rival, former NDP Ontario Premier Bob Rae, withdrew on Tuesday, giving room for Ignatieff to be elected interim Leader by the Liberal Party executive in consultation with the caucus on Wednesday 10th December. The convention will still be held in May, but is expected to be a coronation, with Ignatieff solidly in place as Leader of the Opposition or even Prime Minister.

The difficulty the Liberal Party had in reconciling its lengthy leadership process with the need to make a quick decisions raises some interesting issues about how political parties elect their leaders.

Canadian parties use various methods of allowing their members to have a say in electing members. The Liberal Party elect leaders at a convention that resembles old-fashioned US presidential conventions, where candidates are gradually knocked out until one gets support of the majority. The last convention in 2006 had about 2600 delegates voting at the convention. The NDP, BQ and the Conservatives all use various processes that give all members a vote. The NDP gives 75% of votes to members of the party, and 25% of votes to members of affiliated organisations, which are mainly labour unions. Over 58,000 votes were cast at the last leadership election in 2003. The Conservatives use a weighted system that gives 100 points to each of 308 ridings. The ridings are distributed proportionally according to how the members living in that riding voted. The BQ appears to use a simple “one vote one value” system, and the last leadership election saw about 48,000 members vote. Most Canadian provincial parties also seem to have shifted towards a “one vote one value” system as well.

UK political parties likewise use various systems that put the ultimate say largely in the hands of grassroots members while giving some say to Members of Parliament. The British Labour Party uses a system which weights votes so that 1/3 of the vote is cast by members of the constituency parties, 1/3 by members of affiliated organisations (mainly labour unions) and 1/3 by members of Parliamentary Labour Party. In the only contested leadership election in 1994, Tony Blair won 57% of the vote, with a majority in all three parts of the electoral college.

The British Conservative Party uses a process whereby candidates face voting by Members of Parliament until there are only two candidates remaining, and then the two proceed to a vote of all grassroots members. In the 2005 election, four candidates nominated. David Davis received the most votes in the first round, but Cameron took the clear lead after the lowest-polling candidate was eliminated. In the members’ vote, almost 200,000 votes were cast, and Cameron won clearly with 67% of the vote.

The Liberal Democrats use a straight one-vote-one-value process, although each candidate must be nominated by at least 10% of the parliamentary party. Members vote with a preference ballot. Following the 2006 resignation of Charles Kennedy, 52,000 members voted, with Menzies Campbell winning 44% of the primary vote, being elected on preferences, beating Chris Huhne with 58% of the preference vote. Another leadership election in 2007 saw Nick Clegg beat Chris Huhne by a slim margin of 511 votes out of 41,000 cast.

In contrast, Australia and New Zealand politics tends towards members of Parliament deciding leaders. The only exceptions I can find are the NZ Green Party and the Australian Democrats, although only two state Greens parties have official leaders (ACT and Tasmania), so Greens MPs sit in Parliaments in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia without any elected leader.

The New Zealand Green Party has two co-leaders, and they are elected by delegates to the national conference of the party. Their constitution requires that one leader be male and the other female. The party’s original leaders, Rod Donald and Jeanette Fitzsimmons, remained in place for the 1996, 1999, 2002 and 2005 elections, and the only recent election took place in 2006 following the death of Rod Donald shortly after the 2005 election. The election was contested by MP Nandor Tanczos, former MP Mike Ward and party members Russel Norman and David Clendon. Due to the fact that four of the six Greens MPs were female, there was a high chance that the new male co-leader would not be an MP, and in the end Norman defeated Tanczos in a preference ballot. Norman became leader outside Parliament and was elected to Parliament to fill Tanczos’ seat when he resigned in mid-2008, and Norman was re-elected at the 2008 election.

I was planning on going into what we should do in Australia as far as electing our leaders, but this has gotten too long, so:

Tomorrow: what should we do in Australia? What would happen to our politics if grassroots members got to decide who became party leader?