10:39 – Things have ground to a halt, but a little while ago we received primary votes from the Chermside South pre-poll booth. We haven’t got two-candidate-preferred figures from that booth but otherwise we’re done for the night.
Right now it looks like Labor is the favourites to win, but it’s going to be close.
9:21 – In the last hour, the 2CP count has progressed significantly. All but one election day booths, plus one pre-poll booth, have reported preference counts. Labor has taken the lead, with 51.1% of the vote so far.
8:16 – The picture has been improving for Labor as more election day booths have reported preference counts. There are swings to the LNP everywhere, but there’s been a number of booths where that number is less than the margin, such as Stafford Heights and Stafford West. Right now the LNP leads Labor by 120 votes on the 2CP count, but I expect Labor to gain on the LNP position.
7:53 – Newmarket has reported primary votes, and we have a batch of about 3700 postal votes. For quite some time now, my projection has expected the LNP’s primary vote to finish up around 42.5 and Labor around 27.5, but it’s now more like 40-30. This may reflect that more postal votes are yet to come whereas my model assumes they have all reported. The postal votes so far are about half what reported last time.
7:47 – We now have all but one election day booth reporting primary votes (come on, Newmarket), and four of those booths have reported preference counts.
7:38 – Chermside West shows a 9.2% swing to the LNP after preferences. So far three of four election day booths have shown swings big enough for the LNP to win.
7:33 – The 2CP swing in Stafford West is just 4.4%. This has reduced my projected LNP margin but they remain in front.
7:30 – There’s a 2CP swing of 11.8% at Chermside South.
7:22 – Kedron West is the first election day booth to report a 2CP count, and the LNP has won 51.7% of the 2CP there. That’s a swing of 6.1%. Labor holds Stafford by a 5.3% margin. Right now this looks to be a very close result.
7:19 – There are particularly large primary vote swings against Labor in the two Chermside booths that have reported so far.
7:09 – Kedron West has reported and we’re seeing a similar trend of swings against Labor and to the LNP on primary votes. Overall the LNP is up 5.8% and Labor is down 10.4%. I projected that the LNP would have 15.5% lead on the primary vote, which would be hard for Labor to chase down.
7:04 – Right now, after three small special booths and two election-day booths, the LNP is on 38.3% of the primary vote (a 5.5% swing) while Labor is on 31.3%, and the Greens are on 15.6%. Considering the make-up of the remainder of the field, this feels like Labor is leading. But we have no preference counts yet.
7:02 – 8.9% primary vote swing to the LNP in Chermside South.
7:01 – Stafford West is the first substantial booth reporting, and there is a 1.8% primary vote swing to the LNP, and primary vote swings against Labor and particularly the Greens. It has been pointed out that One Nation is not running while quite a few right-wing minor parties are running, so this may not tell us much about who is winning.
6:37 – The Telephone Voting pre-poll is also a small booth (and far from typical) – but it is showing a small swing from Labor to the LNP and a big swing away from the Greens.
6:22 – Just over 100 votes have reported from the Mobile Polling booth. It shows an 8.8% swing against the Greens and a 12.7% swing to the LNP, but it’s very small.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the state by-election for the Queensland state seat of Stafford. This looks likely to be a classic Labor vs Liberal National Party contest (how old-fashioned). I’ll be posting a few updates as tonight progresses, so please keep checking this page.
Gordon Park is holding for Labor?