British Columbia 2009 Archive

British Columbia now has three examples of a vote this decade where a relatively small difference in vote results in lopsided seat numbers, which appears to be remarkably common in Canada. the 2001 provincial election saw the Liberal Party win a ridiculous 77 of 79 ridings in the province. This helped trigger the electoral reform process, and in 2005 the first STV referendum won a majority of the vote in 77 ridings, despite only winning 57.7% of the vote. This time around, the ‘yes’ vote only won in 7 out of 85 seats, despite winning almost 40% of the vote.

Since the electorate result was so lopsided, I have used a different method of colouring seats. I have coloured blue all seats which voted ‘no’ by a higher margin than the statewide total, and coloured green all seats that either voted ‘yes’ or voted ‘no’ by a margin smaller than the statewide total.

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I have spent this afternoon fixing the errors in my BC Google Earth map. It turns out that the Electoral Boundaries Commission, whose maps I was using, proposed an 83-seat drawing of the map, but the map was redrawn to add two extra seats in the interior. Luckily this did not affect 77 of the seats, so the maps were still largely applicable. Below the fold I provide maps and insights into both the election results. I will post referendum results later today.

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1:08pm – Polls have now closed in British Columbia. I’ll report results as they come in. I’m listening to CBC Radio in Vancouver. You can download the Google Earth map of BC’s electoral map from my maps page.

1:29pm – Very early figures have the Liberals leading in 20 ridings, the NDP  leading in 17. No meaningful figures in the referendum count.

1:32pm – My mistake, it’s actually the other way around. NDP leading in 21, Liberals in 16. The numbers are very small.

1:45pm – The CBC interactive map seems to have different boundaries for some of the interior seats from my map. I’ve rechecked the Electoral Boundaries Commission and mine seems correct. Hmm. It’s very close at the moment. The Liberals have won 3, leading in another 37, while the NDP has won 1 and is leading in another 37, leaving the race extremely close.

2:00pm – The Liberals are pulling out ahead of the NDP, with the CBC showing 50 Liberals, 34 NDP (including leading seats). The STV referendum vote is extremely low, and is sitting on 61% for the Yes vote.

2:16pm – It turrns out the CBC website has had the referendum vote backwards. It’s actually 61% for the NO vote, although the number of  votes is extremely small so far.

2:19pm – CBC has called the election for the Liberals. The referendum also appears doomed, although most votes are yet to be counted.

2:25pm – As the referendum numbers grow, the No percentage is falling. I think it may be possible that STV may get over 50%, although they won’t get the requisite 60%.

2:31pm – So it turns out that, after the Electoral Boundaries Commission submitted their proposal to the Parliament, the Parliament added two extra seats. My maps are thus inaccurate. It does appear, however, that the only changes were in the central and northern interior, so the map is accurate in Vancouver and on Vancouver Island.

3:08pm – If anyone out there is still watching, take a look at Delta South, on the southern fringe of Vancouver. Incumbent Liberal Wally Oppal is leading independent Vicky Huntington by a single vote.