Oodgeroo – QLD 2020

LNP 7.2%

Incumbent MP
Mark Robinson, since 2017. Previously Member for Cleveland 2009-2017.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Oodgeroo covers northern parts of Redland council to the east of the City of Brisbane. It covers the suburbs of Wellington Point, Ormiston and Cleveland, as well as North Stradbroke Island.

History
The seat of Cleveland was first created in 1992. It was held by the ALP continuously from 1992 to 2009, when it was won by the LNP. The seat was renamed as “Oodgeroo” in 2017.

Darryl Briskey was elected to Cleveland in 1992. He had first been elected as Member for Redlands in 1989. He held Cleveland from 1992 to 2006.

Phil Weightman succeeded Briskey as Member for Cleveland in 2006. He held the seat for one term, and in 2009 was defeated by the LNP’s Mark Robinson.

Robinson was re-elected in 2012 and 2015, and won another term as member for Oodgeroo in 2017.

Candidates

  • Irene Henley (Labor)
  • Kirstyn Marriott (Informed Medical Opinions)
  • Claire Richardson (Independent)
  • Mark Robinson (Liberal National)
  • Assessment
    Oodgeroo is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

    2017 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Mark Robinson Liberal National 14,549 52.4 +0.1
    Tony Austin Labor 9,389 33.8 -1.8
    Brad Scott Greens 3,812 13.7 +1.7
    Informal 1,282 4.4

    2017 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Mark Robinson Liberal National 15,883 57.2 +1.5
    Tony Austin Labor 11,867 42.8 -1.5

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Oodgeroo have been divided into three areas. Polling places on Stradbroke Island have been grouped together, while those on the mainland were split into Cleveland in the south and Wellington Point in the north.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.2% in Wellington Point to 54.3% in Cleveland.

    The Greens came third, with a primary vote around 14.5% on the mainland and almost 22% on Stradbroke Island.

    Voter group GRN prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
    Cleveland 14.5 54.3 7,401 26.7
    Wellington Point 14.4 53.2 4,708 17.0
    Stradbroke Island 21.8 53.7 1,047 3.8
    Pre-poll 11.6 61.1 9,872 35.6
    Other votes 14.7 58.6 4,722 17.0

    Election results in Oodgeroo at the 2017 QLD state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

    5 COMMENTS

    1. This is one of a very few seats that’s had a strong independent campaign already up and running. I don’t see it quite being Noosa 2017, but Claire seems to be gaining traction. Whether these votes come off GRNs, ALP or LNP is anyone’s guess for now, but she is targeting both LNP and ALP for perceived failures in the area and over-development. With long-term incumbency and over 50% on first prefs, I don’t see the LNP failing here, although it could close a little on the margin. [EDIT: Now I think of it, this is one seat the Greens vote could really be depressed as Claire is campaigning heavily on environment too.]

      Related article: https://redlands2030.net/claire-richardson-independent-candidate-oodgeroo-2020/

      Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

    2. This Clare Richardson campaign seems compelling and I think she could ride to the top on ALP and GRN preferences. I expect LNP will take a hit in SEQ which could give her the opening she needs. ALP were unlikely to run a winnable seat campaign here but an indie would allow the swing to play out in full.

      Predicting an IND gain if Greens preference her over ALP and ALP preference her over LNP (both likely)

    3. Seeing Robinson lose would be all my Christmas’ come at once, worst politician in Qld parly, daylight second. In saying that, this is merely a Disney fairy tale wish, he will get back, my prediction: LNP retain.

    4. I predict Claire will do very well she got 54% of the vote in the Redlands City Council election when she ran for Mayor in the areas that are covered by the Oodgeroo state electorate. She polled very well in Wellington Pt, Cleveland, and North Stradbroke Island.

      As somebody who traditionally helped Labor I’m told the Labor campaign is underfunded, under resourced particularly in the Oodgeroo RHC branch of the party. I imagine the Greens candidate Ian Mazlin will preference Claire, and Labor HQ on Peel St South Brisbane will over rule the local Labor campaign to direct preferences to Claire in the event Irene doesn’t enough make traction.

      My prediction: possible IND Gain in the instance of preferences flowing.

    5. I have it on good word that the Labor party campaign backing Irene Henley is under resourced and under staffed this time around. It looks like many people who traditionally back Labor or Greens are backing Claire. It also is an interesting seat to watch as the new Greens candidate Ian Mazlin could have his party preference Claire. The ALP HQ could also decide to preference Claire over all other candidates as well. Based on preferences from both Labor and Greens this could help Claire knock off Robinson like Zali did against Abbott in 2019. My prediction: IND gain.

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