LNP 6.3%
Incumbent MP
Ray Stevens, since 2009. Previously Member for Robina 2006-2009.
Geography
Gold Coast. Mermaid Beach covers the Gold Coast suburbs of Merrimac, Mermaid Waters, Miami, Miami Keys, Florida Keys, Mermaid Beach and parts of Robina.
History
Mermaid Beach was created in 2009, replacing the former seat of Robina. Robina had existed from 2001 to 2009, and had always been won by the Liberal Party.
Bob Quinn was first elected as Liberal Party member for the new seat of Merrimac in 1992. Quinn served as Minister for Education in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998.
At the 2001 election, the Liberal Party only retained three seats: those of former leader Joan Sheldon, party leader David Watson, and deputy leader Quinn, whose seat of Merrimac was renamed Robina. Quinn took over as Liberal leader, and served until 2006.
Quinn retired at the 2006 election, and was succeeded by Ray Stevens, also of the Liberal Party.
In 2009, Robina was renamed to Mermaid Beach, and Stevens was re-elected for the newly merged Liberal National Party. Stevens was re-elected in 2012, 2015 and 2017.
Candidates
- Zai Harris (Greens)
- Rhett Holt (Independent)
- Hristo Avdjiev (United Australia)
- Nicholas McArthur-Williams (Independent)
- Suphakan (Mod) Somsriruen (Civil Liberties & Motorists)
- Carl Ungerer (Labor)
- Ray Stevens (Liberal National)
- Deb Lynch (Legalise Cannabis)
- Stephen James (One Nation)
- Tory Jones (Independent)
Assessment
Mermaid Beach is a reasonably safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ray Stevens | Liberal National | 12,232 | 45.5 | -4.4 |
| Joshua Blundell-Thornton | Labor | 6,646 | 24.7 | -2.7 |
| Mona Hecke | Independent | 3,162 | 11.8 | +11.8 |
| Helen Wainwright | Greens | 2,599 | 9.7 | 0.0 |
| Saraya Beric | Independent | 1,286 | 4.8 | +4.8 |
| Ric Allport | Independent | 541 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Gary Pead | Independent | 391 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Informal | 1,910 | 6.6 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ray Stevens | Liberal National | 15,110 | 56.3 | -4.0 |
| Joshua Blundell-Thornton | Labor | 11,747 | 43.7 | +4.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mermaid Beach have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, polling 53% in the centre and south, and 59% in the north.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 53.2 | 7,313 | 27.2 |
| Central | 53.0 | 5,546 | 20.7 |
| North | 59.3 | 2,793 | 10.4 |
| Pre-poll | 60.1 | 6,912 | 25.7 |
| Other votes | 57.6 | 4,293 | 16.0 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Mermaid Beach at the 2017 QLD state election
Why is the LNP in red at the top of the page? Where is says the margin at the very top it is in Red.
That’s a typo, thanks for pointing it out.
While substantial parts of these guides are generated from spreadsheets there’s still a human putting them together and I make mistakes, let me know if you find others.
Other mistakes I’ve been trying to catch:
-Seats where comments are not turned on.
-Seat histories which start by saying “Labor has always held this seat” even though they lost the seat in 2012 (relics of my 2012 guide) or otherwise are out of date.
-References to the wrong electorate.
-Blank assessment field.
*Ben – love how the swing for the Greens is ‘FALSE’. Needs fixing up ;P
With ALP yet to select a candidate, it shows you how confident they are of any challenge in this seat and the border/tourism issue has been hitting hard here. I expect a swing towards the LNP and possibly a LNP vs ONP final count (very low ONP 2CP though) in the likes a vote similar to Mudgeeraba and Broadwater. However, that’s really the only interest here as this seat won’t be changing.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Thanks, fixed. A minor bug which happens when the swing is zero.
Why is this seat so much less safe than Surfers Paradise?
The independent challenge probably had something to do with it. (Mona Hecke got 28% running for Gold Coast council in 2016 in a similar ward, also ran for mayor early this year.) 2017 is the only time in the last 30 years that either Mermaid Beach or its predecessors has had a Lib/LNP margin less than the Gold Coast average.
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain
LNP hold
Mermaid Ray is a weak candidate (surely we all remember that strange chicken dance from a couple elections back). This seat should be a few percent stronger for the LNP than it actually is.
Still, easy LNP retain