Logan – QLD 2020

ALP 6.8% vs ON

Incumbent MP
Linus Power, since 2015.

Geography
South-East Queensland. The seat of Logan covers a series of suburbs in Logan City, specifically Regents Park, Heritage Park, Park Ridge, Munruben, Logan Village, Jimboomba, Yarrabilba and Wolffdene.

History
The seat of Logan was first created in 1873. It was abolished in 1950, restored in 1960, abolished again in 1972, and restored finally in 1986. It has been held by ALP members since 1969, with the exception of one term from 2012 to 2015.

When Logan was restored in 1986, Wayne Goss won the seat for the ALP. He had won the seat of Salisbury in 1983.

Goss became Leader of the Opposition in 1988 and in 1989 led the ALP to victory, becoming Premier of Queensland.

He was re-elected in 1992 and won another term by a slim margin in 1995. The ALP won a one-seat majority at the 1995 election, and lost this majority when the result in Mundingburra was overturned and the Liberal Party won the ensuing by-election in 1996. This resulted in the Goss government losing power.

Goss resigned as ALP leader and returned to the backbench. He retired in 1998.

John Mickel won Logan in 1998. He was appointed to the ministry in 2004 and served as a minister until 2009. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 2009 until his retirement in 2012.

In 2012, Liberal National Party candidate Michael Pucci defeated Labor candidate Linus Power with an 18.7% swing. Power came back and won the seat in 2015, and was re-elected in 2017.

Candidates

  • Linus Power (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Logan is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

    2017 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Linus Power Labor 11,48842.3-2.8
    Scott BannanOne Nation8,38730.9+29.1
    Gloria Vicario Liberal National 4,96818.3-19.3
    Liam Jenkinson Greens 1,3274.9-2.0
    Danielle CoxIndependent6162.3+2.3
    Daniel MurphyIndependent3601.3+1.3
    Informal1,6385.7

    2017 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Linus Power Labor 15,42656.8+0.9
    Scott BannanOne Nation11,72043.2+43.2

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Logan have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

    The ALP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in all three areas, ranging from 52.6% in the south to 61.2% in the north.

    The LNP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.3% in the south to 17.4% in the centre.

    Voter groupLNP primALP 2CPTotal votes% of votes
    North17.261.27,91729.2
    Central17.459.24,82417.8
    South15.352.63,40212.5
    Pre-poll19.153.95,81521.4
    Other votes21.954.05,18819.1

    Election results in Logan at the 2017 QLD state election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs One Nation) and LNP primary votes.

    13 COMMENTS

    1. The LNP preferenced Labor over PHON here; one of only a few seats. With those votes Labor may have ended up losing if not for that. I don’t see PHON being as strong as in 2017, but Labor need to be on their toes here.

    2. Well with ONP not having a candidate and I know on good authority the LNP haven’t had any interest in this seat yet, I just can’t see Labor really loosing this seat or being challenged this close to the election. Logan is with some very red seats in the area (Woodridge, Algester, Jordan, Waterford, Inala) and is what’s considered ALP heartland in the south of Brisbane.

      Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

    3. Agree Politics_Obsessed, it’s just hard to see from the margin that Labor were actually in deep trouble in this seat last time and were saved by an LNP preferencing decision that may not be repeated. It’s a similar case in Thuringowa where Labor are in much more trouble than the 4% margin suggests.

      My prediction for how Covid will affect things is it will have a positive effect in Brisbane and surrounds, a negative effect in tourism areas, and no effect in the regions otherwise (or a small positive effect with ALP able to use “strong on borders” rhetoric in conservative areas). The direct impact of border closures bites hardest in border seats (though those are all LNP held anyway). Those assumptions would firm Logan up for Labor in my predictions.

      ALP Retain

    4. So bad is the polling and the relentless attacks on Labor lately that I’m starting to sniff landslide territory win for LNP. I think Labor still hold Logan but I wouldn’t get complacent.

      September prediction: Logan hold.

    5. I wouldn’t worry so much FtB. It always seems bad when you listen to the media echo chamber, but I don’t think voters always take notice. A lot can change before election day. And I say all this as a vehement anti-Labor man!

      My best guess at the moment is a hung parliament, LNP close to 47.

    6. @FtB
      Just want to say, I respect the honesty in your assessments. As much as I’d love to predict LNP gains all over the place, I’m trying not to get my hopes too high because I’m still worried I’ll be disappointed. I appreciate your willingness to be fair, as opposed to some that are a worry if they can cope with being proven wrong when the results roll in.

      My thought processes have been LNP retaining all 38 seats and gaining the bare minimum 9 seats needed:
      1. Whitsunday 2. Barron River 3. & 4. Any 2 of the 4 Townsville seats 5. Aspley 6. Gaven…
      then my hopes come into play 7. Mirani 8. Maiwar 9. Mansfield or Redlands…
      and smokies for a 10th: Redcliffe (sentimentality), McConnel (all I see is Pinky) or Noosa (good candidate choice but my first thought 3yrs ago was IND for life).

    7. BJA. I share your thoughts on alot of the analysis on this site and I guess my LNP leanings come out. Like you I am rather restrained and don’t think it will be a landslide. I abut I am

    8. BJA. I share your thoughts on alot of the analysis on this site and I guess my LNP leanings come out. Like you I am rather restrained and don’t think it will be a landslide. I actually I am more pessimistic and struggle to get to a majority. I think the protect Queensland message actually resonates with lots of people and it will be a real fight to even get Redlands or Maiwar or Mansfield.
      Aspley might be fine because Labor relied on the One Nation preference to get it in the first place.

      Ps – please delete the half written post above

    9. @BJA of course, always good to be fair. I’m a Labor man but the point of chatting on here is to have discussions with people of different political beliefs civilly. We are all just political nerds in the end ha ha. I am really starting to think Labor have absolutely no hope of even a minority gov. It just seems everything is falling away at the worst time.

    10. @FtB & @QO
      Yes, this last fortnight has been interesting – Annastacia has really been exposed. I don’t think COVID response is going to be a major factor in Brisbane, rather swings against the LNP being undone this time.

      In my younger days, I may have been more narrow minded. 2015 was a big shock & then after being involved, 2017 became unexpected, but 2019 Fed buoyed my spirits immensely. My lived experience is Moggill & Maiwar – getting past my first 6 to then getting a majority is where I lack confidence, but I just want to be optimistic for my own mental health.

      Circling back to Logan, I think it was brave of Linus Power to abstain on the abortion vote – not giving any indication whether I’m pro- or anti- abortion, but there’s something to admire in him doing that.

    11. FTB
      Exactly right. And you are always interesting, & exemplary
      cheers WD
      QO
      I disagree entirely about “the QLD message” resonating. I do believe it will be overtaken by “QLD shame” driven by the mean repulsive performance of the Premier. Maiwar was never the greens to keep.

    12. As Richo says “an ugly win is still a win”!. So the safest bet would be another ugly win. A swing to ON but not enough (for them). Linus Power sounds admirable, & Labor will need any available talent in the aftermath. That will be ugly too.

      I wonder if this seat moves south next re-distribution ? That might make things closer

    13. The LNP are running Clinton Pattison here according to the Jimboomba Times. He ran in Algester last time, in Rankin federally last year, and did OK at council elections earlier this year.

    LEAVE A REPLY

    Please enter your comment!
    Please enter your name here