QLD election eve prediction thread

Polls will open in 25 hours in Queensland and the comments threads have been lighting up here with people discussing each electorate.

In particular there have been a few people posting their predictions on each seat guide.

So I thought I would resurrect an old tradition and create a thread for people to post their predictions of what will happen tomorrow.

I won’t try to be exact with my prediction (never a good idea to predict before votes start reporting) but I’ll give some general thoughts:

  • One Nation will win seats, and poll very well for a minor party, but won’t do as well in votes or seats as in their peak in 1998. Possible the polls are overstating their support and they will drop to the low teens.
  • I don’t think we will see either party in a strong enough position to confidently declare victory early in the night.
  • There is a high chance of a hung parliament but it’s still quite likely that the result will be a majority government, or a hung parliament where only one major party has a viable path to government.

I’ll have a piece in the Guardian tomorrow morning laying out what to expect on the night. Tomorrow evening there’ll be an open thread here, and I might contribute occasionally, but I’ll also be contributed to the Guardian’s liveblog, so I’ll just see how much capacity I have to do both. You’re welcome to join in the conversation in the comments.


Bennelong and New England guides posted

In addition to the complete guide to this weekend’s Queensland state election, I’ve now posted guides to the federal by-elections in New England (December 2) and Bennelong (December 16). Enjoy!


New England


Northcote by-election results live

10:25pm – As my last contribution for tonight, here is a map of the booth results and the Greens swing (which can be toggled).

8:23pm – I’m gonna turn off for a little while and will come back once most of the votes have reported.

8:22pm – With seven booths reporting preferences, the Greens have won six. Labor held on with 53.3% in Darebin Parklands, but that was a swing of almost 21.8%.

8:20pm – Six booths have reported preferences. The Greens are on 55.3%, but are projected to increase that to 60.7% as the remaining booths come in.

8:18pm – Just back from dinner now. 10 out of 14 booths have reported the primary vote. The Greens polled 48.3% of the primary vote so far, and my model suggests it will creep up to about 49.3%.

7:49pm – Four 2CP booths have reported, and the Greens are on 56% of the vote after preferences. This is a swing of 17.8% in these four booths, and you’d expect that Greens vote to grow as bigger booths report.

7:47pm – We’ve now got six votes reporting primary votes, and the swing to the Greens remains above 14%, which would put them on track to win a majority of the primary vote.

7:43pm – 14% primary vote swing to the Greens in Preston South. It’s worth noting the best Greens areas have not yet reported – it’s possible they will not gain as large swings there.

7:39pm – 21.5% swing to the Greens after preferences at Alphington North.

7:33pm – We now have preferences from Alphington and Darebin Parklands and the swings are just as big. A 14.7% swing in Alphington and a 21.8% swing in Darebin Parklands. Between these two booths it’s a swing of 16.8%, which would project to a Greens 2CP just over 60%.

7:29pm – Another big swing to the Greens of almost 15% in Alphington. Overall swing to the Greens is sitting on 14.8% after four booths.

7:23pm – Alphington, in the south-east, saw another double-digit swing to the Greens. The Greens gained 10.7% for a total of 43.6%, while Labor dropped 5.3%.

7:22pm – Off two booths, the Greens are up 15.25%, and Labor is down 9.6%. It’s worth noting both booths are in the north of the seat, which is one of the more pro-Labor areas. It suggests the Greens are making inroads in Labor’s better areas.

7:21pm – The second booth, Bell, is substantially bigger than Darebin Parklands, and has a similar pattern. 13.6% swing to the Greens, 7.8% swing away from Labor.

7:13pm – If this swing played out across the seat, the Greens would end with about 51% of the primary vote. It’s worth bearing in mind that the Greens only polled 33% in this booth, but it was a poor booth in 2014. It’s possible they are picking up ground in their worst booths but not gaining as much overall.

7:09pm – First booth in is Darebin Parklands, and we’ve seen a 15% swing to the Greens on primary vote and an 11.3% swing away from Labor.

6:40pm – Polls closed 40 minutes ago in the Northcote by-election. I’ll be analysing the results here as they come in over the coming hours.


Marriage survey results – liveblog

11:41am – I won’t be making any more posts in this thread but I might come back later today with a summary.

10:54am – Eleven of the ‘no’ seats are held by Labor MPs. Five of the other six are held by the Coalition, and one is held by KAP.

10:45am – Here’s the breakdown of the turnout by demographic group:

Generally women were more likely to vote, and older people were more likely to vote.

10:39am – And here is my results map:

10:34am – The result was reasonably consistent across the country. The AEC classifies seats into four regional types. The vote was best in the inner metro, and worst in outer metro.

StateYes voteTurnout
Inner Metropolitan65.6881.17
Outer Metropolitan58.4679.32

10:34am – And here’s the same info as a table:

StateYes voteTurnout

10:28am – Here’s the yes vote by state.

The ACT voted about 74% in favour. NSW was the lowest state, with 57.8%. 12 of the 17 ‘no’ seats were in Sydney. Two were in Melbourne, three were in rural Queensland.

10:16am – The electorates which voted no are: Blaxland, Watson, McMahon, Werriwa, Fowler, Parramatta, Chifley, Calwell, Barton, Maranoa, Banks, Greenway, Kennedy, Bruce, Mitchell, Groom and Bennelong. Twelve of these seats are contiguous seats in western and southern Sydney.

10:02am – Turnout of 79.5%, approximately 12.7 million voters. All age groups had participation over 70%, slightly higher for older age groups. 78% of 18-19 year olds returned. Much lower turnout in the Northern Territory.10:04am – 61.6% of voters voted yes. Every state and territory recorded a yes result.

9:00am – Results will be announced in one hour, at 10am AEDT. I plan to download the data as quickly as possible and publish some interesting results as soon as possible, so please stay tuned right here.


QLD 2017 – final candidates locked in

Nominations closed on Tuesday for the Queensland state election, so I’ve done one last update for my candidate list.

There are 453 candidates running: an average of 4.87 per seat.

Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens are all running a full ticket. There are nine seats where they are the only parties running.

One Nation is running in 61 seats. Katter’s Australian Party is running ten candidates, while the Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No-Tolls party is running eight candidates. There are also 95 independents running.

The gender balance for the bigger parties are:

  • 18% – One Nation
  • 28% – LNP
  • 37.6% – Labor
  • 44.1% – Greens

You can read the list here.


Candidate update – nomination day

Nominations close today in the Queensland state election. I did an update of candidates last night, checking each of the main party websites for missing candidates, and taking onboard all the candidate updates posted in comments – thanks to you all.

You can view the updated list here.

Last week’s list included 316 candidates (including Billy Gordon, who later announced he would not run): this has now increased to 348.

The Greens have now announced candidates in all 93 seats, up from 87 last week. I could still only find 82 Labor candidates, with candidates missing in action in 11 others (although I’m sure I’ve missed some). The LNP is up to 89 candidates. One Nation’s candidate numbers have mostly remained steady at 57 (up two) while KAP has increased from six to ten.

I have now identified 12 independents (up from five last week, excluding Gordon). This includes Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow, who decided to run as an independent after losing the Labor preselection contest for the seat of Rockhampton following the sitting MP’s late retirement announcement.

There’s at least 26 seats with out-of-date candidate information, but I will wait until this evening, after nominations are declared, before making a final update on each seat, including the full list of candidates in ballot order.


Website maintenance Saturday

I’ll be undertaking some maintenance tomorrow morning on this website. I’ll have to copy the contents of the website over to a new server, so there’ll be a period where any new comments may be lost. I plan to do this between 9am and 12pm tomorrow, but I’ll post on here when I’m starting and finishing. I advise avoiding commenting during this time.

EDIT 9:24am: I’m about to make a copy of the old website, so no more comments please.

EDIT 6pm: Unfortunately the move didn’t work so we’ll be sticking with our existing system. Feel free to comment again.


Major parties go to QLD election missing candidates

I have been compiling a list of candidates for the Queensland election as I always do, regularly updating the lists on each seat guide.

I ran an update last night, after the Premier’s election announcement, and was surprised at the number of vacant spots on the major party candidate lists, with Labor in particular still lacking candidates in a large number of seats. It is possible I am missing some candidates, but I searched for each seat lacking a major party candidate and only found a handful of extra candidates.

According to my current list (which you can view here), the numbers for each party are:

  • Greens – 87
  • Liberal National Party – 84
  • Labor – 78
  • One Nation – 55
  • Katter’s Australian Party – 6
  • Independents – 6

I should note that where they have not otherwise announced their retirement, I have counted all sitting MPs as running. It’s not entirely clear if Billy Gordon (for example) is planning to run as an independent in Cook.

It is quite shocking that the Labor Party, despite having the choice of election timing and deciding to go early, is still lacking candidates in 15 seats. It is true that most of these seats are in areas the party has no chance of winning, but they have no candidate in Hinchinbrook (3.4% margin) or in Burnett, Ninderry, Gympie and Southport, all of which have margins between 6.6% and 7.8%. Not likely Labor wins, but not complete write-offs either.

The LNP is doing better, but still have nine seats without candidates. Maryborough (margin 1.1%) is a particular surprise.

It’s not shocking that One Nation has only nominated 55 candidates. For a party that has only emerged as a major force in the last eighteen months, it’s impressive to manage candidates in almost two thirds of the state. There are a handful of seats (for example the seats held by KAP) where the party has deliberately chosen not to run, and the party has also had issues with candidates being disendorsed. But I think we need to assume that One Nation will not close to running a team in every seat, and thus we’d expect a lower total statewide vote than the polls suggest (but if the party has good coverage in its best seats, that may not matter).

When I rank seats according to the One Nation vote in Alex Jago’s analysis of the 2016 Senate result, most of the missing candidates make sense. One Nation are only running candidates in six of the 25 seats with the lowest Senate vote, which explains half of the missing candidates. They are running in most seats with a stronger One Nation vote, but with some glaring exceptions.

The party is deliberately not running against KAP incumbents in Traeger and Hill, but they are also missing candidates in Warrego, Condamine, Gladstone and Thuringowa – all in the top twenty One Nation seats in 2016.

Finally, let’s take a look at the gender breakdown for each of these parties.

PartyWomenMenWomen %
Liberal National Party216325.0%
One Nation104518.2%
Katter’s Australian Party1516.7%

The pattern is consistent with other recent elections. Overall a majority of candidates for all parties are men, with the Greens closest to parity, with Labor not far behind. The LNP and One Nation have much lower proportions of women amongst their candidate lists.

Please feel free to download and use the spreadsheet listed above. If you are aware of any candidates I’ve missed, or if there are any errors in the data, please post them as comments under the relevant seat guide, and I will make an update later this week. Nominations close next week, and after that I will make one last update.


QLD federal redistribution – draft released

I’ve been quite busy recently and hadn’t had time to deal with the recent draft released for the Queensland federal redistribution.

To be honest it’s the least interesting redistribution I’ve encountered in the nine years I have written for this blog. Queensland is maintaining its 30 federal electorates after a series of rapid redistributions which repeatedly increased its seat numbers. Twelve electorates were left entirely untouched, and most of the others underwent very minor changes.

Antony Green has analysed the boundaries and made estimates for the electoral boundaries. No seat flipped party, although a few have a changed margin.

You can now download my boundary map for this draft proposal.

I have also recently updated a number of other maps: the final Tasmanian federal map, the final NSW local government boundaries as of 2017, and the New Zealand electoral map updated to reflect the results of the 2017 election. You can download them all from the maps page.


NSW by-elections live (sort of)

7:28pm – Okay last update for a few hours. The Nationals have increased their lead on the Shooters after preferences in Murray – they now lead with 54.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, off 6000 votes. On primary votes they lead by 8.65% with 21% Labor votes dominating the preferences to be distributed. The Nationals look set to hold Cootamundra, where the Shooters trail Labor by one vote on the primary vote, and are on only 42.1% after preferences. It looks like Murray will be close, but the Nationals remain the favourites.

7:06pm – The Nationals and the Shooters are now exactly tied after preferences in Murray.

7:05pm – The Nationals are looking stronger in Cootamundra. With almost 10,000 votes reporting, the Nationals are on 48.4%. The Shooters are on 24.4%, just ahead of Labor on 21.6%. It’s possible Labor could come ahead of the Shooters, but either way it seems unlikely either could overtake the Nationals. Only about 2400 votes have been counted as two-candidate-preferred votes, but the Nationals are leading the Shooters with 57.3%.

7:02pm – It appears that both the Nationals and the Shooters are losing ground to Labor in Murray as more votes come in, but they should still stay in the top two. This probably helps the Shooters, as it means they need a smaller share of a bigger Labor vote to win.

6:59pm – Blacktown is predictably uninteresting, with Labor on 71.7% of the primary vote.

6:58pm – With over 7000 primary votes counted in Murray, the Nationals lead with 43.5% to 33.3% to the Shooters. We also have about 1500 votes distributed for two-candidate-preferred, and the Nationals are barely leading with 50.4%.

6:42pm – With over 1600 votes counted in Murray, the Nationals lead with 40.7% to the Shooters’ 36.2% and 16.5% for Labor. There’s been a swing of about 2% back to the Nationals in Cootamundra since the last figures, with about 2500 votes counted.

6:34pm – With almost 1500 votes counted in Cootamundra, the Nationals lead with 41.3% of the primary vote, followed by the Shooters on 30.7% and Labor on 23.2%. If those numbers held, there would be a good chance of a Shooters win, but it’s far too early to say.

6:30pm – So I will be out tonight and won’t be doing a full set of coverage but will jump in with some thoughts on early results over the next hour. Feel free to post comments below.