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Seat #12: Melton

Melton1-2PPMelton is a safe Labor seat on the western fringe of Melbourne, covering Melton and Bacchus Marsh.

Labor’s Don Nardella has held Melton since 1999, after serving in the Legislative Council since 1992.

Nardella holds Melton by a 13.6% margin.

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Vasse 2014 – results and maps

Last night’s Vasse state by-election in Western Australia was narrowly won by the Liberal Party, after a large surge in support for the Nationals. In 2013, the ALP came second and the Liberal Party easily won with 71.2% of the two-party-preferred vote.

Labor did not run in yesterday’s by-election, and most of Labor’s vote flowed to the Greens, who came close to doubling their vote.

2014 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Libby Mettam Liberal 8,665 44.4 -12.9
Peter Gordon Nationals 5,573 28.5 +21.2
Michael Baldock Greens 3,496 17.9 +7.9
Peter Johnson Independent 853 4.4 +4.4
Wayne Barnett Australian Christians 680 3.5 +3.5
Teresa Van Lieshout Independent 265 1.4 +1.4
Labor 0 0.0 -12.4
Independent 0 0.0 -11.0
Family First 0 0.0 -2.0

2014 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Libby Mettam Liberal 10,435 53.4
Peter Gordon Nationals 9,088 46.6

Most of the vote was won by Liberal, Nationals and Greens, and the patterns of this vote is quite interesting, including the pattern of swings.

A majority of the vote in the electorate lies in the town of Busselton. The remaining rural booths were split between those in the Busselton council area (as “North”) and those in the Augusta-Margaret River council area (as “South”). I have split the booths into the same areas as I used for the by-election guide.

Interestingly, the Nationals vote was highest in Busselton, with 32.7%. The Greens outpolled the Nationals in rural booths overall, and outpolled the Nationals at six out of nine booths outside of the Busselton urban area.

The Liberal Party’s primary vote was highest with 45% in northern rural booths, with 40% in Busselton and 39.4% in the two booths in Augusta-Margaret River.

The Greens vote was highest in the two small booths at the southern end of the electorate, and then in the rural booths to the west of Busselton. There are six polling places in rural parts of Vasse where the Greens polled over 20%, but there are also two booths to the south-east of Busselton where the Greens polled less than 10%. The Greens vote in Busselton was 15.3%, and most booths were close to the average.

Looking at the Liberal/National two-candidate-preferred vote, the Liberal Party won the two-candidate-preferred vote in the northern and rural booths. They won seven out of nine booths outside of Busselton.

In Busselton, the Nationals won 51% of the two-candidate-preferred vote. The Nationals won the two larger booths, with the Liberal Party winning the two smaller booths. The Nationals margin of victory was larger in the booths where they won than in the Liberal booths, giving them a majority of the vote.

It’s also worth examining the swing against the Liberal Party on primary votes. The swing against the Liberal Party was much higher in Busselton and a number of booths to the south-east of Busselton.

Voter group GRN % NAT % LIB % LIB 2PP LIB swing Total votes % of votes
Busselton 15.32 32.68 39.96 49.01 -19.41 6952 46.65
North 23.39 23.37 44.90 55.18 -11.18 5399 36.23
South 29.63 26.07 39.38 50.14 -6.16 1097 7.36
Other votes 15.28 21.47 55.88 63.50 -1.90 1453 9.75
Two-candidate-preferred votes at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Two-candidate-preferred votes at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Liberal primary votes at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Liberal primary votes at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Nationals primary votes at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Nationals primary votes at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Greens primary votes at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Greens primary votes at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Liberal primary vote swings at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Liberal primary vote swings at the 2014 Vasse by-election.

Seat #11: Lara

Lara1-2PPLara is a safe Labor seat covering the northern suburbs of Geelong, and rural parts of the City of Greater Geelong to the north of the city.

Lara has been held since 2006 by Labor MP John Eren, who had previously held an upper house seat in the Geelong area from 2002 to 2006.

John Eren holds the seat by a 13.8% margin.

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Vasse and Casuarina – belated results

Apologies for my absence tonight, I was busy and unable to cover the results in the two by-elections held today: Casuarina in the Northern Territory, and Vasse in Western Australia.

Polls closed just over two hours ago in Vasse, and it appears that the Liberal Party has narrowly held on against the Nationals after significant swings away from the Liberal Party.

We have all primary and two-candidate-preferred votes in, except for those cast early in person.

The Liberal Party is sitting on 52.7% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, up against the Nationals. For most of the count, we had no 2CP figures due to the Nationals and the Greens both in with a chance of coming second, but most of the 2CP vote came in a short time ago after it became clear that the Nationals had outpolled the Greens. In 2013, the Liberal Party won 71.2% of the two-party-preferred vote against Labor.

The Liberal Party has suffered a swing of 14% on primary votes, dropping from 57.3% to 43.3%. The Nationals vote increased from 7.3% to 27.7%. The Greens vote also increased from 10% to 19.3%. Labor did not run in the by-election, and an independent who polled 11% in 2013 also did not run, freeing up over 20% of the vote to be picked up by other candidates.

Swings against the Liberal Party by booth varied wildly. The Liberal Party vote increased by 9% at Rosa Brook, and otherwise the swing against the Liberal Party ranged from 1.4% in Dunsborough to 26.5% in Yoongarillup.

I’ll return tomorrow morning with booth maps showing the results of the Vasse by-election.

In the NT Legislative Assembly electorate of Casuarina, the ALP suffered a swing but held on. Northern Territory seats are very small, and the results in Casuarina were only broken down into two polling places, as well as prepoll and postal votes. The Country Liberal Party narrowly won the postal votes (by two votes) and the prepoll votes (by three votes). Labor won 55% in Nakara and 56.9% in Tiwi, for an overall Labor margin of 55.1%. This is a swing of 4.2% to the Country Liberal Party. I probably won’t return to any more coverage of Casuarina.

Seat #10: Dandenong

Dandenong1-2PPDandenong is a safe Labor seat in south-eastern Melbourne, including Dandenong, Dandenong South, Doveton and Eumemmerring and parts of Dandenong North, Endeavour Hills, Noble Park and Noble Park South.

The seat has a margin of 14% for the ALP, and has been held since 1992 by John Pandazopoulos. He’ll be retiring at the upcoming election.

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Seat #9: St Albans

StAlbans1-2PPSt Albans is a safe Labor seat covers Albion, Kealba, Keilor Downs, St Albans and Sunshine North in the western suburbs of Melbourne.

St Albans is a newly drawn seat, taking in major parts of Derrimut as well as smaller parts of Footscray, Keilor, Kororoit and Niddrie.

The sitting member for Derrimut, Telmo Languiller, is running for Tarneit. The Labor candidate, former Brimbank mayor Natalie Suleyman, should easily win the seat, which has a 14% Labor margin.

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Seat #8: Footscray

Footscray1-2PPFootscray is a safe Labor seat covering Braybrook, Footscray, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Tottenham and West Footscray in western Melbourne.

Footscray has been held by the ALP’s Marsha Thomson since 2006. Thomson holds the seat by a 16% margin. The seat has been held by Labor continuously since 1927.

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Seat #7: Mill Park

MillPark1-2PPMill Park is a safe Labor seat covering suburbs in the outer north of Melbourne, including South Morang and parts of Epping, Mill Park and Wollert.

Labor MP Lily D’Ambrosio has held the seat since 2002, and currently holds the seat with a 16.9% margin.

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Seat #6: Yuroke

Yuroke1-2PPYuroke is a Labor seat on the north-western fringe of Melbourne, including the suburbs of Craigieburn, Greenvale, Kalkallo and Yuroke.

Labor MP has held the seat since its creation in 2002, and before that held Tullamarine since 1999. Beattie holds Yuroke by a 16% margin, but will not be running for re-election in 2014.

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Seat #5: Kororoit

Kororoit1-2PPKororoit is a safe Labor seat in the western suburbs of Melbourne, covering Burnside, Burnside Heights, Cairnlea, Caroline Springs, Deer Park, Derrimut, Kings Park and Ravenhall.

Labor MP Marlene Kairouz has held the seat since a 2008 by-election, and holds the seat by a 17.5% margin.

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