The Tally Room

While the overall seat numbers in the Tasmanian House of Assembly have been very stable, that disguises more changes at the level of the individual MP. For today's post I am going to look at the statistics for how many MPs were replaced at each...

If you've been following my live blog, you would have seen that the preference count in the Tasmanian state election finished on Saturday, with the count in Bass being in doubt right up until the end. Most seats ended up going to the candidates who...

Tasmania's Hare-Clark system is proportional, but it's not purely proportional. Each division elects seven members, and results are not just about how many votes each party receives - results are dependent on how preferences flow and how votes split within each party's ticket. Yet the...

12:47pm - George Razay has been elected in Bass - not even for the seventh seat, but the sixth. Razay ended up on 6968 votes, with Jess Greene on 6555 votes and Geoff Lyons on 6294. So Lyons misses out. This means the Assembly has 14...

During the federal election count, I identified a number of issues with the data being published by the AEC. Two main issues emerged, where the AEC's estimates did not seem to be correct. I have been publishing a data repository for some years now, and...

Now that the Parliament has officially opened for its first sitting after the federal election, we're off to the races with redrawing the electoral map for the next federal election, expected in 2028. No rest for the wicked. The redistributions in this parliamentary term are...

Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham and Chris Monnox to discuss the results of the Tasmanian state election and prospects for the formation of a new government. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider...

Tasmanian election results can often be simplified to totals for each party in each electorate. But votes aren't cast for parties, they're cast for candidates. When candidates are elected or excluded, preferences don't always flow to fellow members of the same party (or "leakage")....

There were some noticeable swings in the Tasmanian election, and there will be some changes in the Assembly, but overall the result seems to have produced a Parliament with a similar balance of power. That's not great news for the government, because the outgoing...

10:56 - All of the pre-poll booths that were due to be counted tonight have now reported. So I don't expect any more results to come in tonight. Right now the numbers for the parties in the parliament look about the same following the election....