The pendulum orders every seat in the country by the swing required for that seat to change hands. By following the pendulum you can determine roughly how many seats will fall with a particular national vote. Antony Green has built a calculator which can work this out for you.
Following the pendulum only gives you a rough idea of what might happen. Some seats will swing more strongly, and others won’t, thanks to a whole bunch of factors including the incumbent MP, election issues, and demographics.
So how do we identify which seats could see larger-than-average swings and fall despite a seemingly ‘safe’ position on the pendulum?
One factor worth considering is how much the seat has swung since the last Coalition victory in 2004. While many marginal Labor seats swung back to the Coalition in 2010, a number of seats, mainly in Victoria and South Australia, swung even further to Labor in 2010.
There are fifteen seats where the cumulative swing from the Coalition to Labor at the 2007 and 2010 elections is greater than 9%. These are a good place to start when looking for the big swingers.
Read below the fold to find out where those seats are.
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