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Queensland election guide – redistribution summary

Queensland has recently undergone a redistribution of state electoral boundaries, the first in almost a decade. The existing boundaries were used at three elections: 2009, 2012 and 2015.

The number of seats was increased from 89 to 93. This resulted in the creation of five new electorates, with two seats merged.

The inner-city electorates of Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha were merged into the new seat of Maiwar. Maiwar is a marginal LNP seat, with a margin of 3%.

Five new seats were created:

  • Bancroft – Labor seat on the northern fringe of Brisbane, with an 8.3% margin.
  • Bonney – marginal LNP seat on the Gold Coast, with a 2.2% margin.
  • Jordan – safe Labor seat at the eastern edge of Ipswich, with a 13.5% margin.
  • MacAlister – Labor seat in the north-east of Logan, with a 6.4% margin.
  • Ninderry – LNP seat on the Sunshine Coast, with a 6.9% margin.

Eleven other electorates have changed their name.

Former name New name
Ashgrove Cooper
Dalrymple Hill
Kallangur Kurwongbah
Indooroopilly Maiwar
Brisbane Central McConnel
Yeerongpilly Miller
Cleveland Oodgeroo
Beaudesert Scenic Rim
Albert Theodore
Sunnybank Toohey
Mount Isa Traeger

The last Queensland state election produced a result of 44 Labor, 42 Liberal National, 2 Katter’s Australian Party and 1 independent.

Antony Green’s redistribution estimate (which I will discuss further below) produces a result of 48 Labor seats, 42 Liberal National seats, 2 Katter’s Australian Party and 1 independent. Two of those Labor seats are now held by independent MPs elected in 2015 as Labor candidates, and one of those LNP seats is now held by a One Nation MP, elected representing the LNP.

Notes on redistribution calculations

I have produced my own estimates of the impact of the redistribution on each electorate. I have produced my own estimates as part of the process of breaking each electorate into sub-areas.

Read the rest of this entry »

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QLD election guide posted

There is speculation that the next Queensland state election could take place in the next few months, and in preparation for this election I’ve now completed my guide to the 93 electorates which will be contested.

Each guide, as is usual, contains a history of the electorate, maps and tables showing the results of the previous election, and a list of candidates running in the seat. The candidate lists will be regularly updated over the coming months.

I’ve also drafted a few posts summing up the impact of the redistribution and the key seats in the election, and they’ll pop up over the next few days.

You can click through to each seat guide via either of these two pages:

You can also use this map to click through to a seat guide:

I’ll return with more writing on the Queensland election as the election gets closer.

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Nominations close for NSW council elections

This is just a quick post to note that nominations closed last Wednesday in the NSW council elections. I’ve posted the full candidate lists for the fifteen largest councils on my council guides.

Read the guides via these links:

I’ve also just gone through and added an extra feature to the eight amalgamated councils. In addition to posting the ward breakdown of the 2013 federal election, I’ve also included the 2016 results.

I’ll definitely be following these elections and may return with some more writing, but will definitely return to cover the results on September 9 and will follow that up with some post-election analysis. In the meantime, you can join the conversation in the comments thread for each council.

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Projecting One Nation’s vote in the QLD election

In the process of putting together my guide to the Queensland election, I had to consider how to handle the potential vote for One Nation, who have polled as highly as 23% earlier this year and were sitting on 15% in the most recent poll. Normally I assess a seat’s vulnerability based on its margin, but a new party polling 15% is likely to upset the apple-cart, threatening seats which look very safe on paper.

One Nation haven’t been a significant statewide player in Queensland state elections since 2001, so the best source of information comes from the 2016 federal election – specifically the Senate, as One Nation only ran in a handful of House of Representatives seats.

Thankfully Alex Jago has done the work taking those results and converting them into the new Queensland state electorates using AEC data about where people from a particular SA1 vote. He’s then taken those votes and distributed preferences amongst Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation.

After distributing those preferences, One Nation is left with about 15% of the statewide vote – about the same as their latest polling.

For now I won’t bother trying to project how these votes would shift based on differing polling (for a start, the LNP vote was higher and Labor’s vote lower in 2016 compared to the latest polling), but I’ll just list those seats which have the highest One Nation vote according to Jago’s model. I will be referencing this analysis in my profiles of seats with a high One Nation vote.

The following table lists the twenty seats with the highest One Nation vote, and the rank that One Nation came out of Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation. In nine of these seats, One Nation outpolled one of the major parties last year.

Kevin Bonham has also written about this same dataset, and put some more thought into how these votes might play out in an election. In short, a lot will depend on how close One Nation is to the leading candidate, and whether they are competing with Labor or the LNP (and thus which parties’ preferences will decide the result).

The introduction of compulsory preferences will also complicate things. Preference flows will definitely change, but it’s hard to say how exactly. The new One Nation only made it into the top two in one seat at last year’s federal election, so we don’t know how to predict how strongly Labor or LNP preferences would flow to One Nation. If they receive a poor preference flow, it’s possible they could make it to the top two in many seats and only win a few. One Nation did reasonably well with preferences at last year’s Senate election, so it’s not safe to assume that they would receive poor preference flows.

Seat Margin ON Senate vote ON rank
Lockyer LNP vs ON 1.6% 32.0% 2
Traeger KAP vs LNP 16.1% 28.4% 3
Mirani ALP 3.8% 27.1% 3
Hinchinbrook LNP 3.4% 26.7% 3
Callide LNP 9.8% 26.3% 2
Gregory LNP 10.9% 25.8% 2
Burnett LNP 6.6% 25.7% 3
Hill KAP vs LNP 4.9% 25.5% 2
Maryborough ALP 1.1% 25.4% 3
Nanango LNP 13.3% 25.3% 2
Gympie LNP 7.6% 25.3% 2
Warrego LNP 14.5% 24.3% 2
Condamine LNP 17.1% 24.2% 2
Hervey Bay LNP 6.5% 24.2% 3
Burdekin ALP 1.4% 24.1% 3
Gladstone ALP 25.3% 24.0% 3
Bundaberg ALP 0.5% 23.9% 3
Thuringowa ALP 6.6% 23.4% 3
Southern Downs LNP 19.2% 22.9% 2
Scenic Rim LNP 9.2% 22.6% 3
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Tasmanian federal redistribution – let’s try that again

Tasmania is currently undergoing a redistribution of its federal boundaries – the second of six federal redistributions due during this parliamentary term. The boundaries will also apply to Tasmanian state lower house elections, but probably not until the 2022 state election.

The draft boundaries were released earlier this year, and they saw a few significant changes. The seat of Bass, which covers most of the Launceston area, retracted in to just cover areas surrounding the Tamar river, losing the north-eastern corner of the state. Lyons underwent changes in a number of areas.

It is standard practice for federal redistributions to go through two rounds of suggestions and comment, followed by the release of a draft map, then two more rounds of objection and comment, followed by the release of the final boundaries. This time, however, the AEC has chosen to open up another round of objections and comment, as the boundaries released today were significantly different to the first draft.

No changes were made to the boundaries of three of the five seats, but there were significant changes to the Bass/Lyons border. Bass regained the Dorset and Flinders council areas in the north-eastern corner of Tasmania, and lost the small part of the Meander Valley council area contained within the Launceston urban area. This area was contained in Bass at least since 2001.

At the other end of the state, the Hobart-area seat of Denison has been renamed Clark, after Andrew Inglis Clark: state Supreme Court justice, Attorney-General and one of the inventors of the Hare-Clark voting system. This followed a campaign to change the seat name, including from sitting MP Andrew Wilkie and his predecessor Duncan Kerr.

You can download the new boundary map here, or view the three versions of the boundary on the below map:

I’ve seen some commentary expressing frustration about the removal of the urban parts of the Meander valley from Bass, sticking them in an electorate which stretches to the edge of Hobart.

Unfortunately it isn’t possible for Bass to contain both the Meander Valley area and the Dorset/Flinders corner without pushing Bass over quota.

Based on projected 2021 enrolment figures, Bass must lie within 3.5% of the average. In real numbers, they must have between 74,289 and 79,677 projected enrolment. Bass is projected (as drawn) to have 75,653 voters.

There are three areas which have been moved between Bass and Lyons – the Meander Valley area on the south side of Launceston, the Dorset/Flinders corner of the state, and the West Tamar area which was moved from Lyons to Bass in the original draft and remains there. Each has between 5867 and 7828 voters as of 2021, and if all three were included in Bass it would be more populous than is permitted.

So the original Redistribution Committee decided to make Bass more of a Launceston-based electorate, moving the rural north-east into Lyons, and the augmented Commission has instead decided to make Bass follow local government areas, leaving part of the Launceston urban area in Lyons.

So now there is time for interested parties to argue the case. Theoretically they could also decide to completely reverse the Lyons-Bass border back to its previous boundaries, putting the West Tamar back into Lyons, but this is unlikely.

Area Current Projected
Bass second draft 74,467 75,653
Lyons second draft 75,508 78,313
Meander Valley (Bass to Lyons) 6,840 7,233
Dorset/Flinders (Bass to Lyons to Bass) 5,849 5,867
West Tamar (Lyons to Bass) 7,675 7,828
Minimum enrolment 67,513 74,289
Maximum enrolment 82,515 79,677
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Data repository update – WA, SA and Tasmania

I’ve made a number of updates to the data repository in preparation for the next round of state elections.

I’ve added to the data from the 2017 WA state election. Originally I had a limited dataset for the Legislative Council election, without below-the-line vote breakdowns by polling place, and without a seat-by-seat breakdown of the special vote for the upper house. This gap has now been filled.

I’ve also posted datasets for the 2010 and 2014 Tasmanian state elections and the 2014 South Australian state election. The only thing missing is booth-level results for the SA upper house, which will be a project for another time.

As usual, these datasets can be accessed from the data page. Each dataset includes a polling place list, a candidate list, and a list of vote breakdowns by polling place and candidate. Unique IDs can be used to match between each table.

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NSW council election guides – four more guides

In addition to the eleven councils which have already been profiled, I’ve now added four more guides. These are the four remaining councils with populations of over 100,000. Each of them is facing the prospect of council amalgamation, but will still hold an election in September.

With these councils included, I’m now written profiles of every council with a population of over 100,000, and, with the exception of a few remaining small councils on the lower north shore, the eastern suburbs, outer parts of the inner west and the outer fringe of the city, I’ve profiled every council in Sydney over the last two years.

Here are links to these four councils, and a map with links to all fifteen guides:

I haven’t included many candidate names in these guides – I will gradually be updating the candidate lists over the next two months.

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Various map updates

Following on from the recent publication of the final Queensland state electoral boundaries, I’ve updated Google Earth boundary maps for three other jurisdictions:

  • Tasmanian federal electorates – The draft boundaries were published on May 5. These boundaries will also cover Tasmanian state lower house elections, although it is unlikely to be finished in time for the 2018 state election.
  • Tasmanian upper house electorates – The final boundaries were published in May, and will first be used at the May 2018 election.
  • North Sydney ward boundaries – I had missed a change in North Sydney’s ward boundaries since the 2012 election. The council had cut its wards from four to three, which necessarily required a change in boundaries.

You can download a large number of past, current and future electoral boundaries as Google Earth maps from the maps page.

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Queensland state redistribution – final boundaries released

The redistribution of Queensland’s state electoral boundaries concluded last Friday, and I’ve now finished my map of the electorates for download. You can download the map to use in Google Earth here.

I’ve also updated my calculations of the margins in each seat, which are at the end of this post. I estimate that there are 47 Labor seats, 44 LNP seats, as well as one KAP seat and one independent seat. On my first draft, I estimated 48 Labor seats and 43 LNP seats – unfortunately I appear to have made an error calculating the margin in Pumicestone, which resulted in me predicting it was a very marginal Labor seat – I now think it’s a marginal LNP seat, despite no change in boundaries. I feel confident this is the right result, although it doesn’t make much difference when the seat is as marginal as Pumicestone is.

As part of my calculations I’ve assigned every polling place to a new seat, and split up the special votes between the new seats, and this will be used as the basis for my guide to the Queensland election, due later this year.

Read the rest of this entry »

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NSW council elections – read the Tally Room guides

Voters in 46 NSW local councils will be voting on September 9 to elect new councils.

The rest of the state voted last September, but elections were postponed in all of those councils which had either been amalgamated or had an amalgamation pending.

Amalgamations have been cancelled in a series of regional councils, so these existing councils will hold regular elections in September.

There are twenty newly-amalgamated councils which will hold their first elections: eleven in Sydney and nine in regional NSW.

The state government is planning to amalgamated fourteen Sydney councils into five new councils, but these plans have been delayed by various court cases. Unless these amalgamations take place in the next few months, the unamalgamated councils are due to hold elections this year.

I’ve prepared guides for eleven of the biggest councils holding elections. These are the eleven councils with populations over 100,000 which are not still facing amalgamations.

Eight of these councils are new creations. Newcastle and Wollongong survived amalgamation plans, while the Hills had its election delayed after losing its southern tip to the City of Parramatta, but has mostly survived intact.

There are four councils which are still under the threat of amalgamation which have a population of over 100,000: Hornsby, Ku-ring-gai, Randwick and Ryde. I would normally write profiles for these councils, but have held off due to amalgamation plans. I may add profiles of these four councils if I have time before September.

Each profile contains information on the history of each constituent council, the council wards, and recent election results. I will gradually be updating each profile with candidate information as we get closer to election day.

You can also use this map to see which councils are facing election, and to click through to the guide for the eleven councils listed above:

One last note: of the fourteen councils which are still facing potential amalgamation, thirteen will use the same wards as in 2012. The only exception is Hornsby, which was required to redraw its wards after it lost a large area to Parramatta. I have now added in the updated Hornsby wards and uploaded a complete version of the ward map for the 2016-2017 council elections. You can download it at the maps page.