4

Seat in focus – Goulburn

Goulburn, on paper, was a very safe Liberal seat prior to the recent election, with Liberal MP Pru Goward holding the seat by a 26.8% margin.

This masked a lot of change in the area. Goulburn shifted significantly west, taking in Yass and other areas from the abolished Nationals seat of Burrinjuck, and barely half of the seat’s population was included in Goulburn prior to the election.

Nationals MP (and minister) Katrina Hodgkinson held Burrinjuck, and initally planned to run against Goward in Goulburn, before shifting to the neighbouring seat of Cootamundra.

Polling places in Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election. Goulburn in blue, North-West in green, Southern Highlands in yellow, Yass Valley in red. Click to enlarge.

Polling places in Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election. Goulburn in blue, North-West in green, Southern Highlands in yellow, Yass Valley in red. Click to enlarge.

At this election, Goward suffered one of the largest swings against the government across the state. Currently the swing sits at 20.1% on a two-party-preferred basis, with most of the special votes not counted. Goward was still comfortably re-elected, but her huge 26.8% margin was cut to a much slimmer 6.7% margin.

There was huge variations in the swing across Goulburn, with Labor winning the vote in the main towns of Goulburn and Yass, while the swing was much less in the Southern Highlands.

In the pre-election guide, I split booths in Goulburn into four parts. Polling places in the Goulburn Mulwaree, Yass Valley and Wingecarribee council areas have been grouped as “Goulburn”, “Yass Valley” and “Southern Highlands” respectively. Polling places in the remaining parts of the seat were grouped as “North-West”.

The entirety of Goulburn and Southern Highlands were in Goulburn prior to the redistribution. All of Yass Valley, and most of the North-West, were contained in Burrinjuck prior to the redistribution.

Voter group LIB 2PP % ALP 2PP % ALP swing Total % of votes
Goulburn 50.7 49.3 22.9 10,269 21.1
Southern Highlands 65.0 35.0 9.6 8,958 18.4
Yass Valley 53.1 46.9 23.0 6,121 12.6
North-West 63.3 36.7 20.5 4,625 9.5
Other votes 54.5 45.5 23.1 18,610 38.3

The swing was large, and well above average, in three out of four areas, ranging from 20.5% in the north-west to 23% in Yass Valley. In the Southern Highlands, the swing to Labor was less than 10%.

Overall, the Liberal Party won a narrow majority in Goulburn, and a slightly larger majority in Yass Valley, to be contrasted with the larger majorities in the southern highlands and the north-west. While there was a large swing against Goward in the north-west, the Coalition majority was so large that she still managed 63% after a large swing.

When you look at the maps, you see an even more interesting trend. Over one-third of the seat’s population lives in the towns of Goulburn and Yass (as opposed to the larger area and population covered by the respective local council areas of Goulburn Mulwaree and Yass Valley).

Labor only won seven booths in the whole of the electorate of Goulburn, and all seven of these booths are in these two larger towns. In Goulburn, Labor won five out of seven booths, and overall won 50.8% of the two-party-preferred vote. In Yass, Labor won both local booths and won 53% of the two-party vote overall.

Two-party-preferred votes in Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in the town of Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in the town of Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in the town of Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in the town of Goulburn at the 2015 NSW state election.

5

Seat in focus – Oatley

Oatley was the closest seat at the last election. Liberal candidate Mark Coure defeated Labor MP Kevin Greene by 440 votes, or 0.5%. Coure’s hold on the seat was strengthened by the redistribution, which saw his margin increase to 3.8%.

Despite the favourable redistribution, Oatley’s Liberal margin was well below the expected statewide swing to Labor, and a uniform swing would have easily swept Oatley from Liberal to Labor.

That’s not what happened at all. Instead, Coure has significantly increased his majority. At the time of writing, he was sitting on 56.6% of the two-party-preferred vote with much of the special votes yet to be counted – a swing of 2.8%.

Polling places in Oatley at the 2015 NSW state election. North in blue, South-East in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Polling places in Oatley at the 2015 NSW state election. North in blue, South-East in green, South-West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Earlier this week, I analysed the results in the neighbouring seat of East Hills, another marginal Liberal seat where the Liberal Party strengthened their hold.

Like in East Hills, Oatley has a pattern of the Liberal Party winning strongly in the south in suburbs close to the Georges River, while Labor performed better in the north of the seat. While there was not a swing back to Labor in the north, the swing to the Liberal Party was smaller than in the south.

In my pre-election guide, I split Oatley booths into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

Voter group LIB 2PP % ALP 2PP % LIB swing Total % of votes
South-West 59.0 41.0 4.8 13,595 28.3
North 49.7 50.3 2.0 13,537 28.2
South-East 66.1 33.9 4.0 7,994 16.6
Other votes 49.6 50.4 -6.7 12,932 26.9

The Liberal Party won 59% of the two-party vote in the south-west and 66% in the south-east. In these areas, the swing to the Liberal Party was 4.8% and 4% respectively.

In the north, where Labor won a majority in 2011, Labor held on with a slim 50.3% majority in the north, and the Liberal Party only gained a swing of 2%.

Two-party-preferred votes in Oatley at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in Oatley at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in Oatley at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in Oatley at the 2015 NSW state election.

1

Seat in focus – Ballina

Last Friday, I published a breakdown of the election result in the key seat of Lismore in the far north of New South Wales.

The seat of Ballina shares a lot of similarities with its neighbour. In both cases, the Greens outpolled Labor in 2011, but the Nationals held the seat by a large margin against either left party. In both cases, there was a large swing away from the Nationals and to both Greens and Labor, with the Greens staying in second place on primary votes.

While it looks like the Nationals have held on in Lismore, the Greens appear to be on track to win Ballina. Another factor in Ballina is the independent candidacy of Jeff Johnson, a Ballina councillor elected as a Green twice, who quit the Greens recently in order to run as an independent.

The seat of Ballina covers the entirety of the Ballina and Byron shires. Ballina Shire covers a majority of the seat’s population.

Polling places in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election. Ballina in orange, Ballina Surrounds in green, Byron in blue. Click to enlarge.

Polling places in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election. Ballina in orange, Ballina Surrounds in green, Byron in blue. Click to enlarge.

In the pre-election guide, I broke the seat’s population into three parts. I grouped together all those booths in Byron Shire, and split those in Ballina Shire between those in the town of Ballina and the remainder of Ballina Shire (“Ballina Surrounds”).

Prior to the recent election, there was already a massive difference in the vote between Byron Shire and Ballina Shire. The Greens polled 36.7% in Byron Shire, compared to a vote in the teens across Ballina Shire.

Voter group NAT % GRN % ALP % JJ % NATsw GRNsw ALPsw Total % of votes
Byron 21.0 44.1 26.0 4.9 -19.6 7.4 14.0 12,574 26.6
Ballina Surrounds 42.5 21.4 21.7 10.5 -20.7 4.9 10.5 8,919 18.9
Ballina 44.0 15.7 26.1 10.9 -20.3 2.8 12.3 7,251 15.3
Other votes 41.7 22.5 24.8 7.2 -20.6 3.8 13.8 18,540 39.2

Overall, the swing to the Greens was relatively small, but it was biggest in area where the Greens vote was already highest. The Greens gained a swing of 7.4%, to 44%, in Byron Shire, but only 2.8% to 15.7% in the town of Ballina.

There was a larger swing to Labor across the board, but their swing was also largest in Byron. Labor’s vote jumped into the 20s in all three areas.

Indeed, Labor overtook the Greens in Ballina Surrounds. In 2011, Labor outpolled the Greens by less than 1% in the town of Ballina – this year, they outpolled the Greens by over 10%.

It’s also worth bearing in mind the existence of independent Jeff Johnson, who polled just over 10% across Ballina Shire, and just under 5% in Byron Shire.

It shouldn’t be assumed that all of Johnson’s vote came from the Greens, but it seems likely that the swing to the Greens would have been larger in Johnson’s absence, particularly in his strongest area in Ballina Shire.

The overall swing to the Greens was relatively mild, and the party is on track to win thanks to preference flows from two other progressive candidates who polled strongly.

The Greens even suffered swings against them in four booths. One of these booths was in the town of Ballina, and another at the southern edge of the electorate. The other two are the only two booths transferred from Lismore into Ballina, where the Greens vote was already very high.

The polling place at Wilsons Creek is one of the strongest Greens booths in Australia, and in 2011 the Greens won over 72% of the primary vote at the booth. This year, this vote dropped slightly, with Labor gaining an 8% swing and not much room for the Nationals vote to drop below its 2011 level.

Overall, the swing away from the Nationals was about the same in each area, around 20%. If you combine the swing to Labor, the Greens and Johnson, the increase in the progressive vote was about 26% in all three areas.

The Greens were fortunate to win Ballina in 2015 with a low primary vote, narrowly polling second on primary votes and depending on preference flows to win. If they are to retain the seat in the future, they’ll need to hold on to their primary vote in Byron Shire and make significant inroads into Ballina Shire, taking in those Ballina voters who voted for ex-Green Johnson, and capturing the Labor vote in southern parts of the seat.

The following maps show the primary vote for the Nationals, the Greens, Labor and Jeff Johnson, and primary vote swings compared to 2011 for the three main parties.

Nationals primary votes in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Nationals primary votes in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Greens primary votes in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Greens primary votes in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Labor primary votes in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Labor primary votes in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Primary votes for independent candidate Jeff Johnson in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Primary votes for independent candidate Jeff Johnson in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Nationals primary vote swings in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Nationals primary vote swings in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Greens primary vote swings in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Greens primary vote swings in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Labor primary vote swings in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

Labor primary vote swings in Ballina at the 2015 NSW state election.

6

Seat in focus – East Hills

Polling places in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election. North in green, South-East in orange, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Polling places in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election. North in green, South-East in orange, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.

East Hills was one of the last seats the Liberal Party gained off Labor in 2011, with Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes winning the seat off Labor’s Alan Ashton by less than 500 votes. The recent redistribution was unfavourable to Brookes, cutting his margin from 0.6% to 0.2%, and making East Hills the most marginal seat in the state.

With Labor gaining a large swing back at this election, you would have expected Labor to easily win back East Hills.

But while Labor gained over a dozen other seats, and generally gained a large swing in most seats, Labor was unable to overcome the tiny margin in East Hills.

On current figures, Brookes is on 51.1% of the two-party-preferred vote, which is a swing of 0.9%. This figure will change on late counting, since the two-party-preferred count hasn’t yet been conducted on pre-poll and absent votes.

While there was very little movement in the overall vote, this masks some interesting trends in different parts of the seat.

In the pre-election guide, I split booths in East Hills into three parts: north, south-east and south-west. The north covers those booths close to Bankstown, while the two southern areas cover those closer to the Georges River.

Voter group LIB 2PP % ALP 2PP % LIB swing Total % of votes
South-East 51.3 48.7 2.0 15,595 33.0
South-West 55.1 44.9 1.4 10,240 21.7
North 42.5 57.5 -2.0 7,234 15.3
Other votes 53.9 46.1 0.8 14,165 30.0

In the north, Labor won a comfortable 57.5% majority in the north, with a 2% swing back to them.

But in the south, the Liberal Party maintained a majority of the two-party-preferred vote, with a swing towards them.

The following maps show a similar picture. While there are a number of booths in the south of the seat where Labor won, the Liberal Party gained a swing in those areas while Labor gained a swing in the north.

Two-party-preferred votes in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred swings in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election.

0

Seat in focus – The Entrance

The Entrance is a marginal seat on the Central Coast. It was won in 2011 by the Liberal Party’s Chris Spence. He was caught up in an ICAC investigation in 2014 and stepped down from the Liberal Party, and subsequently retired at the 2015 election.

Polling places in The Entrance at the 2015 NSW state election. Central in orange, East in green, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Polling places in The Entrance at the 2015 NSW state election. Central in orange, East in green, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

The Liberal Party held The Entrance by an 11.8% margin, and at the time of writing Labor’s David Mehan leads by 145 votes, with very few votes left to be counted. This makes The Entrance the second-closest seat at the election, just behind the neighbouring seat of Gosford – another Liberal seat where it appears Labor has won.

In my pre-election guide, I split booths in The Entrance into three sub-areas. The “east” covers those booths closest to the ocean, and the “central” area covers those near the Tuggerah Lakes. The “west” mostly covers booths in the Gosford council area, well away from both the lake and the ocean.

Voter group ALP 2PP % LIB 2PP % ALP swing Total % of votes
East 50.8 49.2 11.0 14,188 29.7
West 50.8 49.2 15.2 10,827 22.6
Central 49.8 50.2 11.3 6,969 14.6
Other votes 49.2 50.8 10.8 15,825 33.1

At the 2011 election, the Liberal Party comfortably won all three areas, winning between 60% in the east and 64% in the west.

The vote across the seat was very consistent in 2015 between each area. Labor won 50.8% of the two-party-preferred vote in both the east and the west, while the Liberal Party won 50.2% in the centre and 50.8% on the special vote.

When you look at individual booths there is more variety, but no particularly strong trend of the ALP winning in one area, and the Liberal Party winning in another. Overall about 36% of election-day ordinary votes were cast at booths where the Labor two-party-preferred was between 48% and 52%, and there was only one tiny booth where either party polled over 60% of the 2PP.

Two-party-preferred votes in The Entrance at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in The Entrance at the 2015 NSW state election.

13

Seat in focus – Gosford

Gosford is the closest race in the New South Wales state election. At the time of writing, Labor’s Kathy Smith leads Liberal MP Chris Holstein by 69 votes, and it appears that Labor’s lead is enough to hold on the small numbers of remaining votes.

Polling places in Gosford at the 2015 NSW state election. North-East in green, South-East in blue, West in orange.

Polling places in Gosford at the 2015 NSW state election. North-East in green, South-East in blue, West in orange.

Most of the seat’s population lies in two urban centres: a southern area including Umina, Booker Bay and Woy Woy, and a northern area including Gosford, Kariong and Point Clare. These covers a much larger area to the west of these two centres, covering the rural parts of the Gosford council area.

The seat of Gosford was named ‘Peats’ prior to the 2006 redistribution. The neighbouring seat of Terrigal was previously named ‘Gosford’, but the seat names changed due to the shift of Gosford itself from one seat to the other.

Labor held Gosford prior to the last election, when it was won by the Liberal Party’s Chris Holstein. Holstein is the only one of four central coast Liberal MPs (along with a number of Hunter Liberal MPs) to not be implicated at the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).

In my pre-election guide, I divided polling booths in Gosford into three areas: north-east, south-east and the west. The two main urban centres I described above are respectively the north-east and south-east areas.

Voter group ALP 2PP % LIB 2PP % ALP swing Total % of votes
South-East 54.5 45.5 10.8 15,899 33.0
North-East 47.9 52.1 14.1 13,054 27.1
West 35.8 64.2 9.1 1,976 4.1
Other votes 49.2 50.8 11.8 17,217 35.8

The ALP won a 54.5% majority in the south-east, while the Liberal Party won a 52.1% majority in the north-east, and a much larger 64.2% majority in the low-population west. Holstein also won a slim majority of the special votes.

There was a large swing to Labor across the seat, but it was biggest at 14% in the north-east, compared to less than 11% in the Labor-leaning south-east.

I’ve also created a two-party-preferred booth map, including a zoomed-in version to cover the Umina-Woy Woy area in the south-east.

Two-party-preferred votes in Gosford at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in Gosford at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in south-east parts of Gosford, including Umina and Woy Woy, at the 2015 NSW state election.

Two-party-preferred votes in south-east parts of Gosford, including Umina and Woy Woy, at the 2015 NSW state election.

5

Redrawn ACT electoral boundaries released

Earlier this week, while most of us were distracted by the New South Wales election results, the ACT Electoral Commission released draft boundaries for the next election.

Electoral boundaries are reviewed after every election, but most changes have been minor since the ACT’s electorates were still used at the 1995 election.

In 2014, the ACT Legislative Assembly voted to expand the Assembly from 17 members to 25 members, and as part of that the existing three electorates (one electing seven and two electing five) will be replaced by five equally-sized electorates.

These boundaries are similar to most predictions.

The Belconnen-based seat of Ginninderra and the Tuggeranong-based seat of Brindabella have largely remained intact, simply shrinking to cover a smaller area.

Ginninderra lost all of its Gungahlin suburbs and a few Belconnen suburbs to a new Gungahlin-based seat of Yerrabi, and Brindabella has lost its northern suburbs to the Woden Valley-based seat of Murrumbidgee.

The central electorate of Molonglo currently covers a majority of both Gungahlin and Woden Valley, along with the entirety of the inner north and the inner south.

Gungahlin and Woden Valley have been lost to the new seats of Yerrabi and Murrumbidgee effectively, while the remainder of Molonglo has been renamed Kurrajong.

On these new boundaries, the five main centres of Canberra each now have their own electorate:

  • Central Canberra – Kurrajong
  • Belconnen – Ginninderra
  • Gungahlin – Yerrabi
  • Tuggeranong – Brindabella
  • Woden Valley – Murrumbidgee

You can click on each electorate on the above map to see my estimates of the vote for each party on the new boundaries. You can download the map from the Tally Room maps page.

Electorate Labor Liberal Greens Motorist Bullet Train Others
Brindabella 2.11 2.87 0.42 0.25 0.21 0.14
Ginninderra 2.46 1.91 0.64 0.43 0.21 0.35
Kurrajong 2.42 1.98 1.03 0.10 0.33 0.15
Murrumbidgee 2.41 2.46 0.62 0.15 0.23 0.13
Yerrabi 2.27 2.45 0.51 0.32 0.22 0.23

On these figures, Labor would win ten seats, Liberal eleven, and the Greens one, with the remaining seats undecided.

In order for a party to win a majority, they would need to win three seats in at least three electorates, which either side could manage with a small swing.

Elsewhere: Antony Green crunched the numbers earlier this week.

0

NSW late counting – day six

This will be the last ‘late counting’ post. At this point, it seems possible to call the results in Lismore, Gosford and The Entrance, in addition to East Hills which has seemed clear for a couple of days.

Labor has narrowly gained Gosford and The Entrance, while the Liberal Party has held on in East Hills as predicted in recent days.

The Nationals have also maintained their lead in Lismore, with the Greens failing to see a shift in how preferences flowed on Thursday and Friday’s counting.

East Hills

ALP ALP % LIB LIB % Exhausted
Counted so far 17,675 48.89% 18,478 51.11% 2,805
Projected 21,338 49.34% 21,906 50.66% 3,310

Almost all primary votes have now been counted in East Hills, but no more two-party-preferred votes have been counted since yesterday.

On my original estimate, there should be another 500 postal votes, but it’s possible that we’ve seen the last of the primary votes.

Labor did slightly better on the primary votes counted today than I expected, but it won’t be enough to close the Liberal lead. On current figures, the Liberal Party leads by 803 votes. I estimate that this will close to a gap of less than 600 votes once the remaining pre-poll and absentee preferences are distributed.

Gosford

ALP ALP % LIB LIB % Exhausted
Counted so far 21,710 50.08% 21,641 49.92% 4,451
Projected 21,832 50.09% 21,752 49.91% 4,462

Labor has increased their lead slightly, but more importantly, it appears that there are very few, if any, votes left to count.

At the moment, Labor leads by 69 votes. There are about 244 declared institution votes, which will favour Labor – on primary votes Labor leads Liberal by 6 votes, and this should increase after preferences are distributed.

It appears that the final postal votes have now been counted, and the total number is less than expected, which explains why the projection was previously assuming the Liberal party would regain the lead.

The Entrance

ALP ALP % LIB LIB % Exhausted
Counted so far 21,270 50.18% 21,120 49.82% 3,309
Projected 21,355 50.20% 21,181 49.80% 3,336

Like in Gosford, it appears that most of the votes have now been counted, and the total postal and absent vote appears to be less than last election.

Labor is now leading by 150 votes, and that lead should extend when preferences are distributed for a batch of 173 provisional votes.

It seems like there are no more absentee or postal votes to be counted, but even if there are it seems not possible for the Liberal Party to regain the lead – even a batch of 1500 postal votes wouldn’t give the Liberal Party a lead of more than 160 votes.

Lismore

NAT NAT % GRN GRN % ALP ALP %
Counted so far 19,959 42.49% 12,418 26.44% 12,030 25.61%
Projected 20,917 42.60% 12,930 26.33% 12,537 25.53%
Projected 2CP 22,410 52.24% 20,491 47.76%

Provisional, enrolment and absent votes were added today. While the Greens position was strengthened, it wasn’t strengthened as much as was expected.

I’m still expecting some more absentee votes (which would slightly narrow the Nationals lead), and it’s unclear if there are any more postal votes, but the trend in preference flows has remained steady, and on that basis the Nationals should retain Lismore.

41

Seat in focus – Lismore

Over the next few days I will be posting about a number of the most interesting seats in the NSW election, including a breakdown of the seat’s results by sub-area, and maps of booth results. The first seat today is Lismore.

Lismore has been the most captivating seat so far in the election, with a large swing to the Greens and Labor putting the Greens in with a chance of winning a Nationals seat that was held with a margin of well over 20%.

Polling places in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election. Kyogle in blue, Lismore North in green, Lismore South in yellow, Tenterfield in orange, Tweed in red. Click to enlarge.

Polling places in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election. Kyogle in blue, Lismore North in green, Lismore South in yellow, Tenterfield in orange, Tweed in red. Click to enlarge.

In my pre-election guide, I split up the polling places in Lismore into five sub-areas. A majority of the seat’s population lives in the City of Lismore, with the remainder of the seat split between Kyogle, Tenterfield and Tweed council areas. Lismore covers all of Lismore, Kyogle and Tenterfield councils, but only a small part of Tweed council, covering Murwillumbah.

I split these booths into five parts: Kyogle, Tenterfield, Tweed, Lismore South and Lismore North. Lismore South covers the town of Lismore, as well as a few rural booths to the south, while Lismore North covers rural booths to the north, including Nimbin, Bexhill and Goolmangar.

Prior to last weekend’s election, there was already a wide variation in the vote between these areas. The Nationals vote ranged from 48% in Lismore North to 66% in Lismore South. The Greens vote ranged from 15.7% in Lismore South to 35.9% in Lismore North. Labor’s vote peaked at 16% in Tweed.

Tenterfield was an unusual case, because a large majority of voters in that area had been part of the independent seat of Northern Tablelands in 2011, before being redistributed into Lismore.

Voter group NAT % GRN % ALP % NATsw GRNsw ALPsw Total % of votes
Lismore South 40.4 26.5 27.6 -25.6 10.7 14.3 13,256 29.9
Tweed 38.7 28.5 28.0 -14.4 4.4 11.9 5,867 13.2
Lismore North 27.5 48.7 19.5 -20.6 12.8 7.7 4,328 9.8
Kyogle 46.0 24.3 24.2 -18.2 6.4 11.1 3,300 7.4
Tenterfield 55.8 14.5 22.9 13.2 9.6 15.9 1,906 4.3
Other votes 48.4 20.6 25.6 -10.8 4.1 13.7 15,719 35.4

Looking at this table, you can see widening trends. The Nationals vote went down everywhere except Tenterfield. The Nationals were hit particularly hard in the Lismore area. In Lismore South (covering the town of Lismore) the Nationals dropped 25.6%. Even in the Greens heartland of Lismore North, the Nationals vote dropped over 20%.

Overall there was a bigger swing to Labor than the Greens. Labor overtook the Greens in Lismore South, and also stayed ahead of the Greens in Tenterfield. In every region except Lismore North, the swing to the Greens was smaller than the swing to Labor. Despite this, the Greens gained positive swings in every area, ranging from 4.4% in Tweed to 12.8% in Lismore North.

What follows is the booth maps showing results. I’ve included seatwide maps for the Nationals, Greens and Labor, and zoomed-in maps for the town of Lismore. I’ve also included maps showing which out of Labor and the Greens had a higher vote in each booth, which is useful for understanding how the Greens stayed ahead of Labor. Labor outpolled the Greens in most booths in Kyogle and Tenterfield, along with booths around Murwillumbah. The town of Lismore was split down the middle, with the Greens polling higher in the north-west and Labor in the south-east.

Nationals primary votes in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Nationals primary votes in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Greens primary votes in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Greens primary votes in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Labor primary votes in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Labor primary votes in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Nationals primary votes in the town of Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Nationals primary votes in the town of Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Greens primary votes in the town of Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Greens primary votes in the town of Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Labor primary votes in the town of Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Labor primary votes in the town of Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election.

Polling places in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election, showing which out of Labor and Greens polled higher at each booth. Labor in red, Greens in green.

Polling places in Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election, showing which out of Labor and Greens polled higher at each booth. Labor in red, Greens in green.

Polling places in the town of Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election, showing which out of Labor and Greens polled higher at each booth. Labor in red, Greens in green.

Polling places in the town of Lismore at the 2015 NSW state election, showing which out of Labor and Greens polled higher at each booth. Labor in red, Greens in green.

3

NSW late counting – day five

In Lismore, I’ve changed my estimated preference flows based on fresh information from scrutineers suggesting the Greens are not picking up quite enough Labor preferences to win. Having said that, this is still a projection and the Lismore result is still unclear.

In East Hills, the Liberal Party has solidified their lead, and look set to win the seat.

Labor extended their lead in The Entrance, and the projected Liberal victory has become smaller. In Gosford, Labor has regained the lead, and the projected Liberal victory there has also become smaller.

Lismore

NAT NAT % GRN GRN % ALP ALP %
Counted so far 19,006 42.82% 11,609 26.16% 11,403 25.69%
Projected 20,731 42.17% 13,098 26.65% 12,639 25.71%
Projected 2CP 22,223 51.76% 20,713 48.24%

There has only been a slight change to the number of primary votes counted, with a small batch of postal votes added.

Despite these votes being favourable to the Nationals, the addition of these votes increased the projected Greens primary vote and decreased the projected Nationals primary vote.

Since yesterday I’ve changed the preference flows I am using to model a final result, and they have flipped the projected result from a Greens win to a Nationals win.

Until now, I’ve been working on the basis of a preference flow of 62% Greens, 8% Nationals and 30% exhausting, and this flow covered preferences from Labor, as well as those from the minor candidates.

It’s becoming clear today from scrutineers in Lismore that preferences are not flowing quite so strongly. My latest figures are:

  • Labor preferences – 57% Greens, 6.3% Nationals, 36.7% exhaust
  • Other preferences – 15% Greens, 26% Nationals, 59% exhaust

These preference flows are relatively close to those from Nationals scrutineers that Antony Green is now using in his projection. When you factor in this change in preference flows, the Nationals take the lead with 51.76% after preferences.

Having said that, all of those votes sampled so far come from small booths, with votes in Lismore and Murwillumbah yet to be counted. It is possible that Labor preferences will be much stronger at bigger booths, and this could put the Greens back in contention.

East Hills

ALP ALP % LIB LIB % Exhausted
Counted so far 17,675 48.89% 18,478 51.11% 2,805
Projected 22,519 49.20% 23,255 50.80% 3,176

A few more postal votes were added in East Hills, and I’ve adjusted the formula slightly, assuming 500 more postal votes splitting the same way as those counted so far.

The Liberal Party have increased their lead slightly.

Gosford

ALP ALP % LIB LIB % Exhausted
Counted so far 21,078 50.04% 21,044 49.96% 4,205
Projected 22,513 49.75% 22,743 50.25% 4,683

436 new enrolment votes (twice what was predicted), along with an additional 300 postal votes and 200 absentee votes, were counted today, and Labor has regained a 34-vote lead, compared to the Liberal 20-vote lead yesterday.

Yesterday I was projecting a final Liberal lead of 378 votes, but this has now narrowed to 230 votes.

The Entrance

ALP ALP % LIB LIB % Exhausted
Counted so far 21,008 50.16% 20,870 49.84% 3,233
Projected 23,864 49.82% 24,040 50.18% 3,969

Today, 600 postal votes and over 500 absent votes were counted, along with all 334 enrolment votes.

Yesterday’s post had Labor leading by 94 votes, with the Liberal Party projected to gain a 426-vote lead at the end of the count.

Today’s count was helpful to Labor. Labor increased their lead to 138 votes, and the projected Liberal lead narrowed to 176 votes.