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Seat #74: Cranbourne

Cranbourne1-2PPCranbourne is a marginal Labor seat in south-eastern Melbourne, covering Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne West, Botanic Ridge, Junction Village and parts of Clyde, Clyde North, Devon Meadows, Lynbrook and Lyndhurst.

Cranbourne has been held by Labor’s Jude Perera since 2002, and following the redistribution Perera holds Cranbourne by a 1.1% margin.

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Seat #73: Buninyong

Buninyong1-2PPBuninyong is a marginal Labor seat in western Victoria, covering areas to the southeast of Ballarat, as well as Buninyong, Ballan, Haddon, Meredith and Mount Clear.

Buninyong is a new name for the seat of Ballarat East, which has been held by Labor’s Geoff Howard since 1999. Howard holds the redrawn seat by a 1.6% margin.

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Seat #72: Ivanhoe

Ivanhoe1-2PPIvanhoe is a marginal Labor seat in northern Melbourne, covering Eaglemont, Heidelberg, Ivanhoe, Rosanna, View Bank and parts of Macleod and Yallambie.

Labor MP Anthony Carbines won the seat in 2010 after defeating then-Labor MP Craig Langdon for preselection.

Carbines holds Ivanhoe by a 1.8% margin, and will be facing off against Langdon, running this time as an independent, as well as a Liberal opponent.

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Seat #71: Macedon

Macedon1-2PPMacedon is a marginal Labor seat to the northwest of Melbourne, covering Gisborne, Macedon, Woodend, Hepburn Springs, Malsbury and Kyneton.

Labor MP Joanne Duncan has represented the area since 1999, including in Macedon since the seat was created in 2002. Duncan currently holds Macedon by a 2.3% margin.

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Seat #70: Mulgrave

Mulgrave1-2PPMulgrave is a marginal Labor seat in south-eastern Melbourne, covering Mulgrave, Wheelers Hill and parts of Dandenong North, Noble Park, Noble Park North and Springvale.

The seat has been held by Labor leader Daniel Andrews since 2002, and he currently holds the seat by a slim 2.4% margin.

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Seat #69: Bendigo West

Bendigowest9-ALPBendigo West is a marginal Labor seat in north-western Victoria, covering the western and southern suburbs of Bendigo, as well as areas to the south of Bendigo, including Castlemaine, Maldon and Newstead.

Labor’s Bob Cameron held the seat from 1996 until his retirement in 2010. Labor MP Maree Edwards won the seat in 2010, and now holds the seat by a 3.1% margin.

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Seat #68: Bendigo East

Bendigoeast1-2PPBendigo East is a marginal Labor seat in north-western Victoria, covering the eastern suburbs of Bendigo, and areas to the north of Bendigo, including Strathfieldsaye, Huntly and Elmore.

Labor’s Jacinta Allan has held Bendigo East since 1999, after the seat had been held by the Liberal Party from its formation in 1985.

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Seat #67: Brunswick

Brunswick1-2CPBrunswick is a Labor seat in the inner north of Melbourne, covering Brunswick, Brunswick East, Brunswick West and parts of Coburg, Fitzroy North and Parkville.

Brunswick has been held by Labor MP Jane Garrett since 2010, and before that by Carlo Carli, who won the seat of Coburg in 1994 and moved to Brunswick when Coburg was renamed in 2002.

Brunswick is a Labor/Greens marginal seat, with Labor holding the seat with a margin of only 3.6% over the Greens.

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VIC 2014 – candidate and preference update

Over the weekend, I have updated every district and region profile to include the final list of candidates. You can also view and download the full list of Legislative Assembly candidates, now including ballot order.

In addition, the Group Voting Tickets (GVTs) were released for the Legislative Council. These GVTs lay out how preferences will flow for a vote cast ‘above the line’ for any party or group in the Legislative Council election. The GVT system is what has allowed for ‘preference harvesting’ in past federal and Victorian elections, and is currently facing possible abolition at a federal level.

Unfortunately I have not had any time to analyse the GVTs, but three other analysts have produced useful information that you can use to get a better sense of the preference flows.

Antony Green at the ABC has published preference flows as PDFs, available on each of his regional profiles.

William Bowe at Poll Bludger has summarised where each group’s preferences will flow amongst the main contenders for each region.

Tom Clement at Geeklections has also produced a probability analysis of each region, which includes estimates of the possible votes and the likely seat results for each region based on the GVTs.

Please post any interesting findings in the comments below, and consider this an open thread for discussion of the Victorian election for the next few days. For the final two weeks of the campaign, I will be posting a regular post every few days for general discussion of the election campaign.

Seat #66: Geelong

Geelong1-2PPGeelong is a marginal Labor seat covering the Geelong city centre and the suburbs of Belmont, Fyansford, Manifold Heights, Newcomb and St Albans Park.

Labor MP Ian Trezise has held Geelong since 1999, and now holds the seat by a 4% margin.

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