UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday announced plans to hold a referendum on changing the electoral system for the House of Commons to the “Alternative Vote” system, a preference voting system similar to that used in Australia.
Electoral analysis has shown that preference voting would favour Labour and the Liberal Democrats, whose voters already employ tactical voting to defeat Conservative candidates by voting for whichever candidate is in a stronger position. Rather than producing a proportional result, it would have resulted in an even larger Labour majority in 1997 when they did not come close to winning a majority.
Unsurprisingly, the Conservatives have come out strongly against the proposal and continue to support the first-past-the-post system, while the Liberal Democrats have argued that the proposal does not go far enough.
The Conservatives have a solid lead in polls for the election, which is expected in May or June, but the electoral system means that a large lead is needed for the party to win a majority, suggesting a strong possibility of a hung parliament with the Liberal Democrats and parties from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland sharing the balance of power. This means that it is plausible that negotiation following the election may revolve around kick-starting the electoral reform process, with Labour now committed to a first step and the Liberal Democrats insisting on proportional representation as a key priority.
The legislation will be passed before the election, which would mean the referendum could go ahead regardless of who won, although it is conceivable that a Conservative government could call the referendum to a halt or a deal with the Liberal Democrats could see the scope expanded.
Wright is a new electorate created due to Queensland gaining a thirtieth seat in the House of Representatives. Wright covers rural areas to the south and southwest of Brisbane, stretching from the Gold Coast hinterland to close t Toowoomba. The seat has a notional margin of 4.8% for the Liberal Party, although the Liberals lost both Blair and Forde in 2007. Those two seats covered almost all of the territory in the new Wright. The Liberal National Party has preselected former National and Logan City councillor Hajnal Ban.
