Federal 2019 – the race in regional Victoria

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In this post I’m looking at the 13 electorates that I have defined as “regional Victoria”. This includes the major provincial cities of Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat, as well as the seats of Casey and La Trobe on the eastern edge of Melbourne (which some commenters have argued should have been included in my Melbourne analysis).

This area includes four Labor seats, five Liberal seats, three Nationals seats and one independent seat.

Federal 2019 – the race in northern NSW

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For this post I’m focusing on those parts of New South Wales to the north of Sydney, including the Hunter region. There are five Labor seats and six National seats in this region.

I’ve identified four seats worth discussing, below the fold.

Pre-poll voting breaks record

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As of the end of voting on Wednesday night, just over 3.5 million Australians had cast a vote via pre-poll. This broke the record of just over 3.2 million pre-poll votes which were cast in the entirety of the 2016 campaign.

Almost 500,000 people voted on Wednesday. If similar numbers vote today and on Friday this would bring us to a total of 4.5 million pre-poll votes, which is just over 27% of all enrolled Australians. The following chart is an updated version of the chart posted two weeks ago:

In 2016, pre-poll made up 20.6% of all enrolments, and 22.7% of the turnout. If turnout is about 91% (as in 2016), that would mean that pre-poll would make up just over 30% of the total vote. Postal votes made up 8.6% of the total vote in 2016. Current data suggests that we are headed for similar numbers of postal vote applications as in 2016. If postal votes make up a similar proportion of the electorate, that would mean that almost 40% of votes would have been cast before election day.

There are some remarkable numbers when you break down the statistics by state and electorate.

Federal 2019 – the race in Tasmania

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There are five constitutionally-guaranteed seats in Tasmania. Four of these seats are held by Labor, while the fifth is held by independent MP Andrew Wilkie.

Labor came close to a wipe-out in 2013, losing the three northernmost seats to the Liberal Party, before winning them all back in 2016.

While there are no seats held by the Coalition in this state at the moment, there has been a lot of discussion about Labor potentially going backwards in the three seats they won in 2016.

The Coalition currently holds 73 seats, so need to win three more to win a majority. It seems very unlikely that the Coalition can hold on to power unless they can pick up seats in Tasmania.

Federal 2019 – the race in regional Queensland

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There are ten seats in Queensland outside of the south-eastern corner, including central and northern Queensland plus a handful of seats further inland. The Liberal National Party holds eight of these seats, along with one Labor and one seat held by Katter’s Australian Party, but a number of these LNP seats are in play at this election.

There are five marginal seats I’m paying attention to in this post.

Federal 2019 – what are your predictions?

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We are now three days away from polls opening in the federal election, and I’ve seen a number of commenters posting their broader predictions about which seats they think will flip on Saturday, so I thought it was time to post a thread for everyone to chip in and put their predictions on the record.

If you have thoughts, please post below which seats you expect to flip – please don’t list all 151 electorates! You can refer to this pendulum as the baseline of where the parties stand before the election.

Podcast #26 – Anti-politics and how to watch election night

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Ben is joined by William Bowe and Elizabeth Humphrys to discuss anti-politics and election night – in particular what seats are worth watching and when you should expect results to come in.

Thanks to 2SER radio in Sydney for the use of their studio.

You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Federal 2019 – the race in southern NSW and the ACT

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For my next regional focus I decided to split regional New South Wales into two areas: north and south. Today I’ll be looking at the seven seats in southern NSW, plus the three seats in the ACT.

Labor holds six of these seats, the Liberal Party holds three, and the seat of Riverina is held by Nationals leader and deputy prime minister Michael McCormack.

There are four seats that I think are worth paying attention to.

United Australia – where might their vote come from?

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Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is running a big campaign in this federal election, with a big-budget national advertising campaign. It’s hard to know how well they will perform, but it’d be silly to ignore a party with such a big campaign.

In one sense the party is new, but it’s actually a successor to Palmer’s United Australia Party, who ran in the 2013 federal election. That campaign was similar, with a big-budget campaign spread over the whole country.

One thing I have noticed about Palmer’s campaign, both in 2013 and 2019, is the seeming lack of targetting in the spending of money. While I don’t have any solid data, Palmer appears to be spending his large budget fairly indiscriminately. While that partly makes sense if they are prioritising a Senate vote, but it does mean we have to look elsewhere to have a sense of where they may do best.

So I decided to map out how PUP performed in 2013.

Plan out your vote with this how-to-vote tool

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We’ve now got one more week before election day and a few people have been asking me for advice about how to plan out their preferences in the Senate.

There are a few dozen columns on the Senate ballot in the bigger states, and even more boxes if you choose to vote below the line. It’s no longer necessary to number every box for your vote to count (6 above the line or 12 below the line is sufficient) but it’s always a good idea to number more boxes. And the more boxes you number the greater the risk that you’ll miss a number or double up on a number, and your vote would end right there.

Luckily there is a tool you can use to plan out your vote, producing instructions on how to vote fill in your own ballot.

The tool has been made by Tom Clement of Geeklections and you can access it here.

The first step involves picking where you stand on a political compass. All the parties running in the Senate are also marked on this compass, although you can adjust them if you think they belong somewhere else.