Maroubra – NSW 2019

ALP 10.8%

Incumbent MP
Michael Daley, since 2005.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Maroubra covers parts of Randwick and Botany Bay local government areas, including the suburbs of Botany, Banksmeadow, Daceyville, La Perouse, Chifley, Malabar, Matraville and Maroubra.

History
Maroubra has existed as an electoral district since 1950. It has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1950 by the ALP’s Bob Heffron. He had held the seat of Botany since 1930, until its abolition in 1950.

Heffron had left the ALP in 1938 in opposition to Jack Lang, before returning to the party in 1941. He served as a cabinet minister from 1941 to 1959, when he became NSW Premier. He held the role until he retired to the backbench in 1964. He retired from Maroubra in 1968.

Heffron was succeeded by Randwick mayor Bill Haigh. He became a minister when the ALP won power in 1976. He was dropped from the ministry after the 1981 election, and he then retired in 1983.

The 1983 Maroubra by-election was won by Bob Carr. He was appointed as a minister in the Labor government in 1984. When Labor lost power in 1988, Carr become leader of the ALP. In 1991, he led the ALP to a strong result, depriving the Coalition government of a majority. He won power in 1995. He served as Premier for ten years, winning large majorities in 1999 and 2003. He retired in 2005.

The 2005 Maroubra by-election was won by Maroubra councillor Michael Daley. Daley has been re-elected three times.

Candidates

Assessment
Maroubra is a safe Labor seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael Daley Labor 24,35852.4+7.3
Brendan Roberts Liberal 16,44035.4-7.6
James Cruz Greens 4,1078.8-0.9
Georgia ConstantinouNo Land Tax9182.0+2.0
Jacquie ShihaChristian Democrats6721.4-0.5
Informal1,3762.9

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael Daley Labor 26,47660.8+8.6
Brendan Roberts Liberal 17,04139.2-8.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Maroubra have been split into three parts: Botany in the west, Maroubra in the north-east and Matraville in the south-east.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.5% in Maroubra to 65.8% in Matraville.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Maroubra57.514,06830.3
Matraville65.810,79323.2
Botany61.56,62714.3
Other votes58.08,86219.1
Pre-poll63.06,14513.2

Two-party-preferred votes in Maroubra at the 2015 NSW state election

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2 COMMENTS

  1. (Popular?) Former Randwick Mayor Noel D’Souza has announced he is running as an IND in Maroubra.

    In the most recent Randwick council elections (2015) D’Souza grabbed 7500 votes (55%!) out of south ward running as an IND against established Labor and Liberal tickets. Not saying Daley isn’t safe, but if D’Souza is able to retain those numbers in the southern tip of the electorate and flip another 7000 (mostly labor) votes elsewhere (not impossible with his existing profile in Randwick) then this count will not be as straightforward as previous years.

    D’Souza is a former Labor councillor but due to the circumstances of his departure from the party he is unlikely to send preferences back in that direction. The Libs would have a strong incentive to preference D’Souza.

    To add to the mix, Pat Farmer has a higher profile than the previous Lib candidate here, and Daley theoretically should have increased his profile now that he is Labor leader. It is hard to know where the Labor vote tops out in 2019. There has been some gentrification around Pagewood/Maroubra/Little Bay, but maybe not enough to make a difference.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/2017-nsw-local-government/randwick/
    ($) https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/southern-courier/noel-dsouza-to-run-in-maroubra-for-2019-state-election/news-story/4bdc514753454344e29b4f57a9299fbe

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