Ryan – Australia 2019

LNP 9.0%

Incumbent MP
Jane Prentice, since 2010.

Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.

Redistribution
Ryan underwent minor changes, gaining parts of Dorrington and Enoggera from Brisbane, and losing Karana Downs to Blair. These changes cut the LNP margin from 9.1% to 9%.

History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.

Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.

A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.

Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.

The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won a second term in 2013, and a third term in 2016.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Jane Prentice lost party preselection, so will presumably will not run for re-election.

  • Peter Cossar (Labor)
  • Jake Schoermer (Greens)
  • Julian Simmonds (Liberal National)

Assessment
Ryan is a safe LNP seat, although it is one of the stronger Greens seats in Queensland.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jane Prentice Liberal National 49,40252.1+0.552.1
Stephen Hegedus Labor 21,59422.8-2.723.0
Sandra Bayley Greens 17,76718.7+4.318.8
David ToddFamily First2,3892.5+1.22.4
S GryphonLiberal Democrats2,0462.2+2.22.1
John Lawrence QuinnDemocratic Labour Party1,5661.7+1.71.6
Informal2,3182.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jane Prentice Liberal National 55,99459.1+0.659.0
Stephen Hegedus Labor 38,77040.9-0.641.0

Booth breakdown


Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 56.5% in the Gap to 65.9% in the west. Labor won 52% in Enoggera.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 15.7% in Enoggera to 21.3% in Indooroopilly.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Indooroopilly21.359.822,57924.2
The Gap20.656.514,90216.0
Enoggera15.748.010,69111.5
West16.965.97,9038.5
Other votes17.760.819,05420.4
Pre-poll17.861.518,09419.4

Election results in Ryan at the 2016 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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48 COMMENTS

  1. What is interesting here is the parts of the seat that align with Maiwar such as Indooroopilly. You might see an rven higher Greens vote plus a primary swing to Labor with the LNP 2PP below 50. That could put tis rather safe seat at risk. Certainly one to watch.

  2. Ryan is not at risk and it doesn’t matter much who finishes second. Labor preferences flow to Greens at roughly the same rate Greens preferences flow to Labor.

  3. Wow, seat number #1 is Ryan!

    Moving Karana Downs/Mt Crosby is the most significant change from the redistribution – whether their community of interest lies with Ryan or Blair is debatable.

    The change would likely boost the LNP vote in Blair, though I feel Mt Crosby is the weakest booth for the LNP in Moggill/leafy west.

    Maiwar may be Green for the time being but the LNP primary was strong and Ryan should be safe. It will be interesting if the LNP can harness the vote in Ferny Grove last year to help.

  4. Ryan should stay LNP. Even if Queensland swings, Ryan’s not that swingy.

    Greens to come third this time, but as the inner-city Greens intensification continues they should eventually overtake Labor.

    I wouldn’t expect the Greens campaigning in Ryan to be anywhere near as intense as happened for Maiwar.

    Last year’s state election demonstrated that they had enough resources to blanket three state seats, leaving an under-resourced effort elsewhere. Having said that, state seats are pretty small and IMHO that spillover buoyed the vote in neighbouring seats.
    This indicates they’ll have enough resources to go hard in at most one House seat this time, keeping in mind also that they have to run a statewide Senate campaign.
    That House seat will be Brisbane, as evidenced by Andrew Bartlett’s candidacy there.

  5. I hope Greens put some focus on this seat, even though its not likely to swing 9% the optics of greens being competitive and campaigning in safe liberal seats looks really good. They are probably still a more likely to win a seat like Ryan than any in NSW in the near future.

    Party support strongly reminds me of Higgins but with an even more consistent green base vote, greens did well in pretty much every state seat that overlaps with Ryan in 2017. with a good greens candidate I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finishing 2nd and dropping the tpp margin to 3-5%.

    Current polling suggests that inner city seats and Queensland is unlikely to swing away from the LNP if at all.

  6. It is difficult to see the Greens increasing their vote. Far to much disunity, ATM.
    Also the question of rising power bills is starting to be significant, though perhaps not in QLD yet.

  7. Q Observer
    It is hard to know what impact this might have. However the new boy looks young, & keen. Prentiss has hardly set the world on fire. So probably this is a good thing

  8. @WD
    I find your insights interesting and being ‘from Ryan’, I appreciate your comment.

    The one thing about Julian is passion and that should only be positive.

  9. BJA from Ryan
    Thankyou vey much. I take it that you know Julian ?. Any further comments would be very interesting. How much, if any personal vote has Prentiss built ?

    I must say it must be almost unprecedented for a front bencher to be tossed like this. Are we missing something ?. Is there another story ?

  10. I’ve heard that Prentice is very angry at the LNP for disendorsing her. Her personal vote is quite strong and such I’ve heard she is considering running as an Independent or joining another party like the Centre Alliance (formerly NXT) or another Centrist Party.

  11. Wine diamond Jane prentice had insufficient personal vote to retain LNP endorsement. She lost endorsement yesterday so will only be a candidate if she dumps the LNP in the same way they have dumped her.

  12. Andrew Jackson
    Prentiss would be wasting her time running as an independent. The pathetic Michael Johnson illustrated why.

    WRT to the personal vote, i was referring to the vote in the wider electorate. Overall how can it be a bad thing if MPs cannot take their preselection for granted ?

  13. The Jane Prentice situation reminds me of the Gary Humphries/Zed Seselja situation in the ACT. The Liberals nearly lost the senate seat that year, with a small swing against the Liberals in the senate despite a swing towards them in the lower house, and the ACT having one of the most muted swings in what was otherwise a Liberal landslide.

    An independent Jane Prentice would definitely be in with a real chance.

    Greens should also throw some serious resources at the seat as it’s the best chance they’ll get for a very long time (although Larissa Waters returning to the Senate is a wasted opportunity to have a real crack at the seat).

  14. Article on Prentiss in the Australian today. 123 comments including 10 from Ryan constituents . None defended Prentiss, most were highly critical. Some posts were extremely long, & detailed. Apparently Julian Simmonds won’t the ballot with a 2- 1 majority.

    There seems to be some confusion between whether he is a political staffer, or local govt representative .

    BS couldn’t help himself, & branded Turnbull as weak for not intervening in the (democratic) preselection process. Then there was a typically divisive, small minded, & plain nasty rant on gender equality. BS added that female politicians were “becoming an endangered species in the govt”. Doubtless BS considers any amount of hyperbole justified in sucking up to the female vote. Cynical, disingenuous, false, & Disgusting.

  15. I think the LNP will lose this since Jane’s personal votes will be lost. If labour do well enough they could snatch this narrowly. if they get 53-47 nationwide. Obviously if Jane runs for another party she could win. Whether its One nation or Center alliance or Independent i think she has a decent shot of winning.

  16. @WD

    Cr Simmonds took over Walter Taylor ward from Jane Prentice on Brisbane City Council.

    He also has been the campaign manager for Ryan, so I guess it could be argued that he built up her personal vote.

    The concern is the Greens and the idea would be that Julian will be more attractive to young professional families – I know that is a risk of putting off the elderly though.

    I guess Julian has been more engaged with the membership than her…

  17. “There seems to be some confusion between whether he is a political staffer, or local govt representative.”

    He has been both, he was first a staffer of Prentice before running for her vacated council seat.

  18. John,

    Ryan is to Maiwar what the Victorian seat of Higgins is to Prahran. Yes it covers some good Green areas where the party has won a seat in recent times, but the federal seat extends well beyond that into much safer Liberal areas.

    Again like Higgins, i think it would be a reasonable ambition for the Greens to target finishing second here. But a victory is still a fair way off IMHO.

  19. BJA from Ryan
    Don’t you think the Green vote issue is overstated ?. The only way the elderly are put off, is by the MP acting like a wanker. ie Wyatt Roy. I’d expect the LNP vote to increase in Ryan, with a more visible candidate.

    Daniel
    The LNP are as safe as houses in Ryan. It looks like the Labor vote has suffered recently in QLD. PHON look as if they have increased theirs.

  20. @WD

    Yes, that is essentially my thoughts. Not that Jane Prentice wasn’t visible but she could have been moreso. But its all been beaten up more than it needed to because, ‘oooohhh, we got rid of a woman’ (granted it is a little reasonable).

    I think the Green vote could still increase but just taken from Labor to cement 2nd place.

    Despite the Greens efforts to undoubtedly use their Maiwar gain as a base to grow in QLD, I don’t think it will happen. The LNP should take Maiwar back in 2020 and I certainly will be helping to make that happen!

  21. Labor could win this if they have a really good campaign. Remember this was very close in 2007 it only needed a little more of a swing for it to go Labor. But if labor does win it. It will only most likely only be for 1 term. If this becomes an open seat (which it will be) and if labor is polling quite well in QLD maybe 52-48 53-47 against the coalition they could narrowly take this. Its been safe because labor has done disastrous in QLD since 2010. If they win the TPP in qld as a whole this could become competitive. They could even make Fisher/Wide Bay/Hinkler/Bowman/Fairfax closer or maybe win them (I doubt they will win then under shorten though) Any seat thats under 10 points is winnable if labor wins back the QLD TPP vote. Seats like Moncrieff,McPherson,Kennedy,Groom,Maranoa,Fadden will never be won by Labor though

  22. BJA
    One thing that has been downplayed is that Prentiss is in her sixties. I do think that went against her hard. Maybe things would have turned out better for her if her ministry had been ageing ? The female thing is just too predictable, & boring.

    Daniel
    Labor has no chance in Ryan. Consider this if they had Bob Hawke as opposition leader. Australia’s most successful PM ever, they still wouldn’t win, but they might have a chance in Bowman, maybe even Hinkler. But they don’t. They have Shorten, a completely inauthentic, disingenuous ,fake, & serial liar.

    Worse as a totally fixated Type 5 Shorten’s fixated behaviours are to be seen in his arrogance, sense of superiority, & entitlement. These are quite clearly,boundless.Likewise His sense of intellectual ascendence, is impenetrable, & untouchable. He has no capacity for realistic self examination. This man (sic) is Totally unfit for ANY leadership role. Without him in charge the Libs would have no chance, in the next election. He will prove himself to be a completely despicable individual.

  23. This is straight from an article in the Australian today, by Troy Bramston

    Within the opposition there is not much love and little loyalty for Shorten, only grudging respect. He would have been challenged by Anthony Albanese or Chris Bowen, or both, had Labor failed to win a haul of seats at the 2016 election. But Shorten confounded expectations.

    Yet there is lingering doubt about whether Shorten can lead Labor to victory, despite what the national polls suggest. Shorten’s approval rating remains dire and party officials concede he is a drag on Labor’s vote. Labor’s polling in marginal seats shows it is a much tighter contest.

    Labor MPs are critical of the way Shorten handled the dual citizenship crisis. He protected a slew of MPs and guaranteed the party’s nomination procedures were watertight, even though many in the party had doubts.

    “We have a strict vetting process,” he repeated. “There is no cloud over any of our people.” Shorten gave himself no room to move if the High Court found otherwise. He ended up with egg on his face. His credibility was trashed.

    It underscored the view within Labor that Shorten is complacent, too scripted by key lines and is often his own worst enemy. Some can’t understand why, for example, he has allowed himself to be seen as a puppet of the militant Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy Union.

    Labor MPs also worry that Shorten is overly confident of winning the next election. They cringe when watching him give glib answers to questions in interviews, often with a smug smile on his face. He has told Labor MPs and staff members that the election is all but won. In private, his confidence reigns supreme.

    A very damming piece from a Labor man, with unsurpassed connections inside the Labor party. Backs up all my observations

  24. Is Troy a Labor man? is the Australian pro Labor? need to study the Ennagram more
    (excuse my spelling)

  25. Troy Bramston was certainly a Labor man, but once you are outside pissing in it won’t be long before the ALP consider him an enemy lol. The Australian is very anti-Labor editorially.

  26. Mick
    Yeah Troy IS a Labor man. He was an adviser to Krudd, & has written numerous biographies of Labor figures. Rudd, Gillard, Keating, & 3 other books of Labor history. All this would have been revealed with a simple google search.
    I watch him on Sky weekly, & his allegiance is very clear.

  27. Bennee
    Thankyou for confirming Troy as a Labor man, with that delightful nod to LBJ ! That is (part of) one of my favourite quotes.

    We are all time challenged in terms of how much print we can read (even if it’s online). Fundamentally i really regularly only read the SMH, & Australian, i’d like to read more, but i know the subscriptions would end up wasted.

    There is always a lot of noise about editorial bias, but i’ve always remained unconvinced. IT really is far more likely that the views of the individual writers influence what is printed.

    In particular the hoary old chestnut of Murdoch dictating editorial direction seems inconceivable, the man is a billionaire, running a huge multinational company, surely he has more pressing matters ?

    Clearly the Telegraph, & SMH possess monocultures !. WRT the Australian there is more balance with Richo, Troy, Alan Kohler, & others. Perhaps each side of politics feels excessively, & even unfairly criticised.

    IMO this would be an oxymoron, a contradiction in terms. We cannot possibly criticise our politicians enough. They are simply doing an appalling job, & deserve far more condemnation than they receive

  28. @Daniel, if the ALP couldn’t win this at the height of the Rudd popularity with a QLD leader, I doubt they’d be able to win with Shorten, despite what the margin would suggest.

    Further, Labor have never won more than 50.5% of the QLD 2PP for the last 80 years. I see no reason why this is going to change with Shorten.

    The LNP are home and dry in this seat.

  29. Wreathy
    Nice to hear from you. The latest QLD poll showed 52-48 to the LNP. That isn’t at all good for Labor

  30. Winediamond –

    52-48 LNP-ALP in Qld (at a federal election) represents a 2% swing to Labor from 2016. If uniform (which it admittedly never is) that’d flip Capricornia, Forde, Flynn, Dickson, & Petrie.

    (I assume you’re referring to a federal-level poll, because the last I saw for state-level 2PP had Labor at 52.)

  31. Troy was a Labor man….. doubt he is still a party member. Also I have seen him on Sky …. his positions seem more conservative than others like Richardson and Conroy…… has been seduced my the dark side? Murdoch?

  32. Wreathy normally yess… Margin of 9% and stable votes….. but assuming Prentice does not stand as an independent… and their is still some disquiet then swing could be bigger… esp if Labor polled well in Qld we will see

  33. AlexJ
    All true. Yes i was referring to Federal. I’d suggest the QLD situation is more nuanced, & complex, in a lot of ways. Labor really ought to have captured all, or most of, the seats you mentioned in 2016.

  34. Winediamond –

    Swings work in interesting ways, hey?

    Yes, Capricornia and Petrie ‘should’ both have flipped last time. More than that: they should have been the *only* two Queensland seats to do so.

    Instead, Herbert and Longman changed hands, with much larger swings than the state experienced as a whole. To me this suggests that even when the pendulum gets individual seats wrong it can often do pretty well on the aggregate.

    Anyway, we’re getting some distance away from Ryan. I don’t think I have much more to say here than to heartily concur with Mark Mulcair’s analysis.

  35. Alex J Quite right. I agree with Mark too, except that it bothers me that Ryan LOOKS more like Sydney’s North Shore, or even Melbourne;s outer east. Nothing like Prahran 1

  36. what the uneven Queensland swings did was create lots of Marginal seats…… government change change in Qld alone

  37. Mick
    QLD is different. They do think of themselves as “QUEENSLANDERS !” first, not Australians. It is true that elections are usually decided by the Yankees.

  38. Wine Diamond I agree Queenslanders will not be pushed around by cockroaches.
    Andrew Jackson

  39. Coming back to this seat I was surprised to see how strong the Liberal 2PP margin is in the Gap. There’s almost a 10% difference compared to the last two state elections. Something for Labor to think about, I guess.

    Having said that, Qld being significantly more Labor friendly at a state level is fairly normal.

  40. Labor are likely to run a big Queensland campaign after Longman. They won’t be big on the ground in Ryan but The Greens would be idiots to miss the “stars aligning”.
    – “Retiring” local member in ugly circumstances
    – A conservative LNP candidate replacing a small-l in a small-l kind of area
    – One Nation being a factor in other seats (the LNP/PHON preference deal likely drove down their vote here)
    – A large TV, Radio, Internet camapaign against the LNP from ALP trying to win Petrie, Bonner, Dickson,
    – A new Green local member

    I would call this a possible Greens gain except they haven’t signalled at all that they’re even going to try in this seat.

  41. John I believe that, somewhat boldly, the QLD Greens are going for Brisbane, Griffith, and Ryan! Similar to how they went for Maiwar, McConnel, and South Brisbane in the state election last year.

    They got 1 win in that state election and missed out on the other 2 by ~3.5% but they did see large swings in all the areas that are included in these 3 federal seats. If the state results convert to federal results the Greens are starting at ~23% 3PP in all 3 seats. If the newfound strong Brisbane city Greens ground campaigning is repeated, if the LNP are exceptionally weak statewide (they are on current polling and Longman is certainly a bleak sign for them), with the loss of incumbency advantage in Ryan and replacement by a somewhat distasteful candidate…

    Well it’s a longshot but it’s not impossible.

  42. I feel the Greens should target this because it will be fairly easy to jump into second, Brisbane will be harder, although they do have a high profile candidate in Bartlett which is a big help.
    As for Griffith, winning that will be extremely hard, additionally trying to knock off a progressive Labor MP isn’t particularly something that most Greens want, nor is it a good look.
    My guess is that the Greens will outpoll Labor in Ryan and Brisbane, whilst remaining third in Griffith.

  43. Jake Schoermer is the Greens candidate, he was the candidate for state seats within this electorate twice; 2012 in Moggill and 2015 in Indooroopilly (now defunct and mostly in Maiwar).

    https://www.jakeforryan.com/

    In his about section he says “We need less than 5000 voters in Ryan to switch to the Greens” which I assume is using the 2017 state election Greens high-point and LNP low-point.

  44. The Greens didn’t pick a candidate that could take full advantage of the LNP knifing Prentice. Their 2016 candidate, an older woman, would have been ideal for that purpose, as would Larissa Waters.

    However the Greens chances here are strengthened by the Dutton coup, considering that Prentice was very loyal to Turnbull throughout. Simmonds, while not a federal politician, seems much closer to being a “Dutton” type MP, and the weeks events, could make small-l liberals think twice about the candidate before voting Liberal again.

  45. If Jane decides to run as an Independent she would win, through all the other parties other than LNP Preferencing her. Since the LNP vote will be way down if they are heading for a heavy defeat, She would win narrowly, (She is a popular local member) But its only if she runs as an independent even though she likely won’t

  46. The significant difference between Maiwar and Ryan is families. Maiwar is unit dominated whilst Brisbane is 3/4 acre or larger dominated. Green vote will thankfully decline with distance from Brisbane’s red light district. Brisbane contains a lot of coty’s Old money in Toowong and Indooroopilly and a lot of dual income professionals in its outer reaches. Very large numbers of car commuters. Having just experienced Western Freeway at peak hours it is obvious that car dominates. Houses have pools and air conditioners and residents pay own electricity bills. Greens have no chance of winning this seat. DLP are active in area as are Australian Conservatives. Greens in this area are NIMBY Greens rather than hard leftists. No sign of Jane Prentice preparing for a run as an independent.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

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