Senate – Queensland – Australia 2019

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2019Term due to expire 2022
Fraser Anning (Independent)1 Matthew Canavan (Liberal National)
Chris Ketter (Labor) Anthony Chisholm (Labor)
Ian Macdonald (Liberal National) Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
Claire Moore (Labor) James McGrath (Liberal National)
Barry O’Sullivan (Liberal National) Amanda Stoker (Liberal National)3
Larissa Waters (Greens)2 Murray Watt (Labor)

1Fraser Anning replaced Malcolm Roberts on 10 November 2017 following the High Court ruling that Malcolm Roberts was ineligible to sit.
2Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters on 10 November 2017 following the High Court ruling that Larissa Waters was ineligible to sit. Larissa Waters returned to the Senate on 6 September 2018 after Andrew Bartlett’s resignation.
3Amanda Stoker replaced George Brandis on 21 March 2018 following George Brandis’s resignation.

History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.

From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.

The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.

The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.

The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.

The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.

The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.

In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.

In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.

2016 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal National 960,46735.3-6.14.5851
Labor 717,52426.3-2.23.4253
One Nation250,1269.2+8.61.1941
Greens 188,3236.9+0.90.8990
Liberal Democrats77,6012.8+2.20.3705
Nick Xenophon Team55,6532.0+2.00.2657
Family First52,4531.9+0.80.2504
Katter’s Australian Party48,8071.8-1.20.2330
Glenn Lazarus Team45,1491.7+1.70.2155
Animal Justice32,3061.2+0.10.1542
Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP)30,1571.1+1.10.1440
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers29,5711.1+0.40.1412
Liberty Alliance29,3921.1+1.10.1403
Marriage Equality23,8110.9+0.90.1137
Australian Cyclists Party19,9330.7+0.70.0952
Drug Law Reform17,0600.6+0.60.0814
Democratic Labour Party15,4430.6+0.30.0737
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party14,2560.5+0.50.0681
Others115,1344.2

Preference flows
Eight seats were won on primary votes – the LNP won four seats, Labor won three and One Nation one. Larissa Waters was elected further on in the count.

We now fast forward to the last nine candidates competing for the final three seats:

  • Barry O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.6797 quotas – up 0.0946 quotas
  • Chris Ketter (ALP) – 0.5862 – up 0.1609
  • Rod McGarvie (FF) – 0.4487 – up 0.1983
  • Malcolm Roberts (ON) – 0.4456 – up 0.2515
  • Gabe Buckley (LDP) – 0.4320 – up 0.0615
  • Suzanne Grant (NXT) – 0.3358 – up 0.0701
  • Paul Bevan (AJP) – 0.3194 – up 0.1652
  • Rowell Walton (KAP) – 0.3066 – up 0.0736
  • Glenn Lazarus (GLT) – 0.2991 – up 0.0836

Malcolm Roberts had performed particularly well on the preferences up to this point, as had the Animal Justice Party.

Glenn Lazarus preferences pushed KAP ahead of AJP, and particularly helped One Nation, pushing Roberts ahead of McGarvie:

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7020
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6372
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.5124
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.4662
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4387
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.3856
  • Walton (KAP) – 0.3470
  • Bevan (AJP) – 0.3285

Animal Justice preferences helped Family First claw back some of One Nation’s lead, but Roberts still stayed in an election-winning position.

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7243
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6878
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.5459
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.5250
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4510
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.4014
  • Walton (KAP) – 0.3612

KAP preferences helped Roberts extend his lead over Family First, and close in on Labor.

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7757
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7337
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.6430
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.5852
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4695
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.4429

NXT preferences pushed Ketter into the lead, while also extending Roberts

  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.8594
  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.8475
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.7220
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.6201
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4951

LDP preferences pushed the LNP over quota, while taking Labor close to winning the eleventh seat. Family First weren’t able to close the gap on One Nation, and thus Roberts won the twelfth seat:

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 1.0433
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.9621
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.7764
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.6706

Candidates

  • A – Graham Healy (Rise Up Australia)
  • B – Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)
  • C – Clive Palmer (United Australia)
  • D – Liberal National
    • Paul Scarr
    • Susan Mcdonald
    • Gerard Rennick
    • Ian Macdonald
  • E – Allona Lahn (Involuntary Medication Objectors)
  • F – Kris Bullen (Climate Action)
  • G – Karagh-Mae Kelly (Animal Justice)
  • H – Larissa Waters (Greens)
  • I – Fraser Anning (Conservative National)
  • J – Labor
    • Nita Green
    • Chris Ketter
    • Frank Gilbert
  • K – Andrew Lewis (Independents for Climate Action Now)
  • L – Gregory John Bradley (Australian Workers Party)
  • M – Darren Caulfield (Better Families)
  • N – John Jiggens (Help End Marijuana Prohibition)
  • O – Lyle Shelton (Conservatives)
  • P – Lindsay Temple (Democratic Labour)
  • Q – Joy Marriott (Katter’s Australian)
  • R – Hetty Johnston (Independent)
  • S – Arjay Rase Martin (Great Australian)
  • T – Brandon Selic (Pirate)
  • U – Cameron Murray (Sustainable Australia)
  • V – Kim Vuga (Love Australia or Leave)
  • W – Jeff Hodges (Shooters Fishers & Farmers)
  • X – Tony R Moore (Independent)
  • Y – Gabe Buckley (Liberal Democrats)
  • Z – Jan Pukallus (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Ungrouped
    • Debby Lo-Dean (Independent)
    • Gary Robert Sharpe (Independent)
    • Paul Larcombe (Independent)
    • Jane Hasler (Independent)
    • John Woodward (Independent)
    • Nicholas McArthur-Williams (Independent)
    • Hassan Ghulam (Independent)
    • Wayne Wharton (Independent)
    • Amanda Murphy (Independent)
    • Paul Joseph Stevenson (Mental Health Party)

Assessment
Labor and the LNP will likely each retain the two seats they currently hold.

The Greens (running former senator Larissa Waters) will be likely competing with Labor to win the third ‘left’ seat.

One Nation will be aiming to win back the seat they lost when Fraser Anning left the party, although the LNP will also have their eye on that seat.
Become a Patron!

112 COMMENTS

  1. Malcom Roberts Will Win In Queensland And Rise Up Australia 🇦🇺 Will Win One Senate Seat 💺 In NSW 👽 There Fixed It .👻

  2. Wayne
    Why?
    Your Unsupported opinion is as valuable as my opinion on heart surgery techniques.

  3. It’s predicted in this article that Clive Palmer may miss out in QLD and One Nation gets the last senate seat. Palmer has a popularist messege and a lot of money but that can only go so far. Combination of Newscorp may exaggerated (UAP) support and One Nation decline may not have been as bad as first thought.

    Glen Lazarus found basing a party around yourself can be problematic in gaining a loyal voter base particularly if your party has a lukewarm political philosophy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/clive-palmers-uap-could-miss-out-on-senate-seat-thinktank-says

  4. The counting is still early but Clive is possibly the closest to the Mark.
    The results I predict in QLD will be :
    LNP 3
    ALP 1 or 2
    One Nation most likely to gain 6th seat if ALP get their second.
    Greens most likely if the ALP fail to gain their 2nd.

  5. I think 3 LNP is becoming pretty clear. I think One Nation is still safe. There is not enough left minor preferences to get both the Green and 2nd ALP up. I tend to think AJP, Pirate and HEMP will go Green over Labor. I think Greens get the 2nd left seat.

  6. I have learnt not to argue with Tony over Senate counts. On what will happen it is a different matter.
    I am sorry if Chris Ketter does not get up. He got my vote ahead of all Libs. Anyone influenced by Ketter’s Grandfather Bill Thornton has to be an improvement on most of Lib candidates. Bill Thornton was a guiding light of QLP/ DLP from 1957 to its hibernation in 1974.

  7. Both onp and liberal no 3 are now ahead of the greens and way ahead of the no 2 ALP, with a lot of minor right party vote to distribute. It is now highly likely either th green or the no 2 ALP will be eliminated and elect the remaining candidates

  8. Sorry! but Gerard Rennick isn’t going to win. The ALP will win 2 seats, You obviously don’t know how the counting works. There is no way the LNP get 50% of the senate seats up this time if they didn’t get 50% of the Primary vote. They got well under 50 in QLD. it was preferences that got them allot of seats. But the senate if different. There is no way 66% of the QLD seats will be won by conservatives. They didn’t win 66% of the vote even if you add all the other conservative votes up. If you add Labor and Greens that gets you to around 40%. The senate is more proportional than the house. So My number’s when all votes are counting is 2 ALP 2 LNP 1 ON and 1 GRN. The LNP getting 3 is absurd unless they win a massive landslide like the 2012 election or a little bigger than that

  9. Daniel.

    Your analysis forgets to understand that the Senate Quota is around 14% thus 3 seats is only around 42% of the vote. The LNP has 40%. Thus it’s not unrealistic to get 3 seats.

    On first preferences the results are as followed;

    LNP – 39.5% – 2.76 Quotas
    Labor – – 22.9% – 1.60 Quotas
    One Nation – 10.3% – 0.72 Quotas
    Greens – 9.7% – 0.68 Quotas
    Palmer – 3.4% – 0.24 Quotas

    On these results the LNP and Labor are guarenteed 2 seats and 1 seat respectively. After that the results would be;

    LNP – 0.76 Quotas
    Labor – 0.60 Quotas
    One Nation – 0.72 Quotas
    Greens – 0.68 Quotas

    Thus the last three seats in Queensland will come down to these four parties with one missing out.

  10. Not to be rude Daniel, but considering your track record of predictions in light of the NSW and Federal elections, perhaps you shouldn’t be so confident?

    By my reckoning, 3 LNP is also becoming more and more likely.

  11. Daniel

    50% is not an important number at all. 3 quotas worth of votes is 42.86%. The LNP will fairly comfortable make it to that on preferences from voters who first preferenced right wing minor parties.

    Note that the Coalition are going to win 3 senators in every state except Tasmania, with primary votes between 36% and 42%.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here