Maranoa – Australia 2019

LNP 15.9% vs ON

Incumbent MP
David Littleproud, since 2016.

Geography
Southwestern Queensland and the Darling Downs. Maranoa covers a large part of southern Queensland, stretching from Toowoomba council area (although not the city of Toowoomba itself) along the NSW border, all the way to the South Australian and Northern Territory borders. Major towns include Kingaroy, Nanango, Warwick, Dalby and Roma.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Maranoa is an original federation electorate, covering rural parts of southern Queensland. The seat was first held by the ALP, but has been held by the Country Party and its successors since 1921, only losing Maranoa at one election.

The seat was first won in 1901 by the ALP’s James Page. Page held the seat until his death in 1921.

The 1921 by-election was won by James Hunter, standing for the newly-formed Country Party. Hunter served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1934 to 1937, and retired in 1940.

Maranoa was won in 1940 by the ALP’s Frank Baker, a former school teacher and father of former MP Frank Baker Jr, who had died in 1939. The elder Baker held Maranoa for one term, losing to the Country Party’s Charles Adermann in 1943. Adermann retained Maranoa in 1946 before moving to the new seat of Fisher in 1949. He served as a minister from 1958 until 1967, and retired in 1972.

The Country Party’s Charles Russell won Maranoa in 1949, but fell out with his party in 1950 and contested the seat as an independent in 1951, losing to the Country Party’s Wilfred Brimblecombe. Brimblecombe held the seat until his retirement in 1966.

James Corbett won Maranoa for the Country Party in 1966, holding it until 1980. He was succeeded in 1980 by Ian Cameron, also of the National Country Party.

Cameron retired in 1990, and the National Party’s Bruce Scott won the seat, and held the seat until his retirement in 2016.

LNP candidate David Littleproud succeeded Scott in 2016.

Candidates

  • Rosemary Moulden (One Nation)
  • Anthony Wallis (Katter’s Australian)
  • David Littleproud (Liberal National)
  • Linda Little (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Maranoa is a reasonably safe seat, unless there was a major surge in One Nation support.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    David Littleproud Liberal National 44,29749.2-8.2
    Dave Kerrigan Labor 16,45618.3+2.0
    Lynette KeehnOne Nation16,04717.8+17.8
    Rick GurnettKatter’s Australian Party4,3064.8-0.8
    Katherine Hompes Greens 3,0563.4+0.3
    Myfanwy SchenkFamily First2,9053.2+0.5
    Luke ArbuckleCountryMinded2,1412.4+2.4
    Sherrilyn ChurchRise Up Australia8410.90.0
    Informal5,2695.5

    2016 two-candidate-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%
    David Littleproud Liberal National 59,30865.9
    Lynette KeehnOne Nation30,74134.1

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    David Littleproud Liberal National 60,82167.5-4.7
    Dave Kerrigan Labor 29,22832.5+4.7

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in Dalby and Roma council areas were grouped by local government areas. Balonne and Goondiwindi council areas have been grouped together as ‘South’.

    Polling places in Toowoomba council area have been split into two areas. Those in the south have been combined with those in Southern Downs as “South-East”. Those in the north have been combined with South Burnett as “Kingaroy-Crows Nest”. The remainder of the booths have been combined as “West”, in an area that makes up a majority of the seat’s geographical area but a small minority of the population.

    The LNP won a majority of both the two-party-preferred vote (against Labor) and the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) but the pattern varied. The two-party-preferred vote ranged from 59.8% in the west to 70.8% in Dalby, while the two-candidate-preferred vote ranged from 60.4% in Kingaroy-Crows Nest to 67.9% in the south-east.

    Voter groupLNP 2PP %LNP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
    South-East66.167.913,82415.4
    Dalby70.864.210,06911.2
    Kingaroy-Crows Nest61.660.49,19810.2
    West59.862.64,9875.5
    South65.266.84,9545.5
    Roma68.466.03,4353.8
    Other votes73.969.119,51621.7
    Pre-poll66.165.424,06626.7

    Election results in Maranoa at the 2016 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred (LNP vs Labor) votes and two-candidate-preferred (LNP vs One Nation) votes.


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    3 COMMENTS

    1. One Nation may get a good primary vote but in order to win, Labor would need to vacate the seat as their how to vote cards would put One Nation last. KAP or the Shooters, or a strong independent that Labor would happily preference over the LNP would have a better shot, and they could benefit from a preference snowball, but it would depend on them being the main recipients of the “anti politics” vote.

      At any rate I don’t think One Nation are going to be much of an entity when the election comes around, and even with a swing against Littleproud a lot of those One Nation voters are going straight back home to the LNP.

      Prediction: Won’t even go to preferences

    2. Katter candidate starting to get active with townhall style meetings advertised for Roma and Pittsworth. Bob Katter draws crowds for candidate Anthony Wallis. Talking about inland rail.
      Maranoa is 731,297 square kilometres. Combined area of 37 Victorian electorates is 153,353 square kilometres.
      I placed a post about the difficulties of campaigning in Kennedy in Kennedy thread during last election. Cost in time and money can be astronomical.
      Dickson ALP had 18 street booths yesterday. They all could have met on Friday night slept in their own beds Friday night and been on site early Saturday with a small amount of organising Thursday. To do the same in Maranoa would be a 3 week exercise with probably about 10 K kilometres of driving. Dickson is a large Division by Victorian Standards 772 square km.
      I considered driving out to Pittsworth
      To attend the meeting but it would be a 300km each way. Roma 450 km each way.

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