Hasluck – Australia 2019

LIB 2.1%

Incumbent MP
Ken Wyatt, since 2010.

Geography
Hasluck covers eastern parts of the Perth metropolitan area, stretching from Caversham and Middle Swan in the north, through suburbs including Midland, Guildford, Gooseberry Hill, Kalamunda, Forrestfield and Lesmurdie, down to Kenwick and Maddington in the south. The seat also stretches east along the Mundaring Shire parts of the Perth Hills to Wooroloo. The seat covers the entire Mundaring council area and parts of Gosnells, Kalamunda and Swan council areas.

History
Hasluck was created for the 2001 election. It had a notional ALP margin of 2.6% and was won for Labor by Sharryn Jackson, with a small notional swing to the Liberals. At the next three elections, the sitting MP was defeated at every election.

A 3.6% swing to the Liberals in 2004 saw Jackson defeated by Stuart Henry. Jackson returned to contest the seat again in 2007 and regained the seat from Henry on a 3.1% swing.

In 2010, the Liberal candidate Ken Wyatt won the seat off Jackson with a 1.4% swing. Wyatt was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

  • James Martin (Labor)
  • Lee-Ann Miles (Greens)
  • Assessment
    Hasluck is a very marginal seat, and could be vulnerable at the next election.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Ken Wyatt Liberal 36,51944.9-1.2
    Bill Leadbetter Labor 28,65235.3+5.8
    Patrick Hyslop Greens 10,28312.7+2.4
    Henry John BarnardRise Up Australia2,9993.7+3.3
    Phil TwissAustralian Christians2,7983.4+1.2
    Informal3,4254.0

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Ken Wyatt Liberal 42,29452.1-4.0
    Bill Leadbetter Labor 38,95747.9+4.0

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four parts. The western end of the electorate contains most of the population and this area has been split into central, north-west and south-west. These areas roughly (but not entirely) align with the Kalamunda, Swan and Gosnells council areas. Those booths in the Mundaring Hills have been grouped as “east”.

    The Liberal Party won 55% of the two-party-preferred vote in the east and 59% in the centre. Labor won 53.7% in the north-west and 58% in the south-west.

    The Greens vote ranged from 9% in the south-west to 17% in the east.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central10.958.917,86022.0
    North-West13.246.316,79020.7
    East17.455.212,36915.2
    South-West9.042.09,78712.0
    Other votes13.652.914,11217.4
    Pre-poll11.354.210,33312.7

    Election results in Hasluck at the 2016 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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    22 COMMENTS

    1. Wyatt will almost certainly loose, though from all the sources in Hasluck he is very popular, the issue with many Lib members in WA is the fact that the WA liberals are so unpopular which means their MP’s despite being popular will struggle.

    2. Likely Labor gain, hard to see Libs holding this, there is just not enough a margin. They probably only held it last election due to the popularity of Ken Wyatt.

      Swings against Libs in the hills at last state election were not as large as then northern and southern suburbs. If Labor makes a significant mistake there might be a chance of the Libs holding on but I doubt that will happen.

      Midland and Kenwick should get Labor over the line, even if Kalamunda stays blue.

    3. Ken Wyatt’s about the last likeable WA Lib left, but I think this one is one the Libs will be ignoring if the swing is on. It’s not part of the furniture, and they’d look to it being a seat to recover at future elections. Wouldn’t surprise me if Wyatt stood again in the future even if he loses this time.

      Huge: Darling Range had a swing of 19% at the last state election and Swan Hills 18%, and Kalamunda and Forresfield each 12% – I think this suggests that the area Hasluck covers swung as much as any of the outer metro electorates did.

    4. Huge
      i think you are right on the money here. It is a pity for Wyatt, as he has done little wrong. Does anyone know anything about Lauren Palmer ?

    5. I’ll tell you this, Wyatt’s heart isn’t in it. I’ve heard he’s only running as a favor to Turnbull. He isn’t rocking up to any community events like the Kalamunda night markets and Labor is rocking up to everyone of them.

    6. The narrative has been that Labor is going to get a big swing in WA, so hearing that their own polling has them falling further behind would be pretty extraordinary.

    7. If Palmer really quit because of polls she’s worse with numbers than Dutton’s goon Hastie.

      Good for James Martin though. As said above it’s sad that Wyatt really is the only likeable WA Lib. He’s all but gone here.

    8. I think it will be Hasluck, Swan, Stirling and Moore will go to Labor. Pearce will be close as will Canning

    9. If Wyatt really only was recontesting as a favour to Turnbull as Kalamunda voter said, perhaps he will be the next to announce his retirement.

    10. James – why would Stirling and Moore fall but not Pearce? Moore’s margin especially is enormous (>10%) compared to Pearce (3.6%) – if Moore did actually fall (which I doubt would happen, particularly when WA Labor’s honeymoon is largely over), I see no reason for Pearce not to fall as well. This is even if you take into account Goodenough’s small profile.

    11. Moore doesnt even fall on WA State 2017 numbers – and Forrest (!) does. Pearce isn’t even close on those numbers.

      There will be a bandwagon effect, and strong local campaigns and appeals to moderate Liberals should be able to get Keenan and Hastie over their role in the coup. That’s an extremely good result for Labor in WA. Moore, Tangney and the 3 rural seats are way too hard for Labor, and Curtin is strictly off limits for any political party other than the Liberals (maybe an independent could make waves, but unlikely).

    12. I would say Moore, Canning, Curtin, Durack and O’Connor and expected Lib seats…..Forrest is also probable as lib win…… the state figures included excellent votes in Bunbury and Collie- Preston based on personal votes for Alp candidates. All else will be labor or up for a possible change.

    13. I seriously doubt Moore will fall, most the people I know in that electorate are socially conservative and whilst theres a huge distaste to the Liberals there is even greater resentment to Labor.

      Moore, Curtin, Tangney, Forrest and O’Conner are safe Liberal seats for the foreseeable future. Whilst Labors honeymoon is over I would expect a much larger swing in WA compared to the national average, which would put Hasluck and Swan in Labors column and put Stirling and Pearce up for grabs.

    14. I think that Moore will fall due to the nature of the member with a low profile and really conservative. I think the margin is inflated as Labor has not seen this seat as a possibility.

      In the WA state election, seats like Kalamunda, Murray-Wellington, Bicton and Darling Range (even though it went back to the Liberals at the by-election) would never be in Labor hands but they all fell.

      If you look at trends there are always seats like Moore that fall, yet seats that should fall don’t when there is a swing. East Hills in NSW for instance in the last NSW State Election.

      Also the Julie Bishop factor will be nil – there is no way she will support anyone anymore and won’t have her fundraising and the cash that comes from this.

      Anyhow just my thoughts

      James

    15. I expect Wyatt to have a smaller swing than Porter, Keenan and Hastie.

      A point I hadn’t considered that was raised in the discussion for Banks – now that marriage equality is settled, Labor can how its pitch to bring back socially conservative voters without risking too much in inner city seats, especially with Greens picking up the slack. That will really help in a lot of marginals.

    16. In an ordinary 2019 election (pre-spill), which would have been well after the dust settled in WA Lab’s state win, you’d have to consider Perth and Cowan in play for Libs.

      As it is now presently, Swan and Hasluck are all but certainties to flip Labor, and Pearce too with the momentum of factors so they should be the main priorities then you have Stirling and Canning that could all be in Labor’s grasp if the sandbags fail. If they do indeed both fall then the swing is well and truly on around the country so result won’t mean much overall because Labor will have reached 76 by time polls close in WA.

      Curtin, Moore, Tangney, Forrest and Durack are all safe seats for Liberals and only O’Connor a chance to flip but to Nationals.

      Talk of Moore falling is fanciful given that area is the Bible Belt of Perth. Those people would vote for Satan as long as he was wearing blue. Probably have given the insults hurled around factional opponents during preselection.

    17. In terms of the present seats in WA I think Liberals will always hold Curtin, Tangney, Forrest, Durack and O’Connor (which could go to the Nationals)

      Labor will always hold Fremantle, Perth, Burt and Brand. Perth & Fremantle will always be Labor whatever the Greens say – when the Greens held Fremantle State it was enough for Freo people to say never again to the Greens.

      So that leaves the seats of:

      Pearce (this could become a bellweather seat – it has a similar feel of Eden-Monaro NSW – strong mortgage belt with regional / farming),
      Canning (more Liberal but Mandurah is a strong Labor area),
      Cowan (more Labor)
      Hasluck
      Moore (more Liberal)
      Stirling (more Liberal)
      Swan (more Liberal)
      as marginals.

    18. Less certain about Hasluck as I was a few months before. The long wait til election may save Wyatt, who’s got a decent amount of ground support and wasn’t tarred by the Libspill. It’ll only be the general swing across the board that Labor will get that puts him in danger.

      In terms of most like to fall in WA: Swan, Pearce, Stirling, Hasluck, Canning

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