Forrest – Australia 2019

LIB 12.6%

Incumbent MP
Nola Marino, since 2007.

Geography
South-western corner of Western Australia. Forrest covers the towns of Bunbury, Busselton and Margaret River. Forrest is made up of Augusta-Margaret River, Bunbury, Busselton, Capel, Dardanup, Donnybrook-Balingup, Harvey and Nanrup council areas.

History
Forrest was created for the 1922 election. It has been held predominantly by conservative parties, first by the Country Party before the Second World War and then the Liberal Party. It has only been won by the ALP at three elections.

John Prowse won Forrest in 1922 for the Country Party. Prowse had won the seat of Swan in 1919, before moving to the new seat in 1922. Prowse held the seat for two decades, until his defeat in 1943.

The ALP’s Nelson Lemmon won Forrest in 1943. He was re-elected in 1946, and was then appointed Minister for Works and Housing in the Chifley government, and he was responsible for the commencement of the Snowy Mountains Scheme. He lost Forrest in 1949.

The Liberal Party’s Gordon Freeth won Forrest in 1949. He was appointed to the Menzies government’s ministry in 1958, and served as a minister continuously until his defeat in 1969, when Forrest was won by the ALP’s Frank Kirwan.

Kirwan lost in 1972, going against the trend which saw the Whitlam government end 23 years of Liberal rule. He was defeated by Liberal candidate Peter Drummond. Drummond held the seat until his retirement in 1987.

Geoff Prosser won Forrest in 1987. He joined the Liberal frontbench in 1990, and was appointed as a minister in the Howard government after the 1996 election. He only lasted until 1997, when he was forced to resign due to breaches of the code of conduct. He served as a backbencher until his retirement in 2007.

Nola Marino was elected in 2007, and re-elected in 2010, 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

  • Anthony Marinovich (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Forrest is a safe Liberal seat.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Nola Marino Liberal 41,86949.4-1.8
    Lorrae Loud Labor 19,59623.1-0.4
    Jill Reading Greens 10,13712.0+2.1
    Luke Pilkington Nationals 4,3065.1-1.3
    Ross Maitland SlaterIndependent2,8963.4+3.4
    David FishlockOutdoor Recreation Party2,3752.8+2.8
    Edward DabrowskiAustralian Christians1,8582.2+0.6
    Jennifer WhatelyRise Up Australia1,6542.0+1.3
    Informal5,2695.9

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Nola Marino Liberal 52,98162.6-1.3
    Lorrae Loud Labor 31,71037.4+1.3

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Bunbury, Busselton and Harvey local government areas have been divided along council lines, with the remainder of the electorate split into “South” and “Central”.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 54.4% in Bunbury to 66.4% in Busselton.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 7.2% in the north to 24.7% in the south.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central10.463.715,09817.8
    Busselton13.466.413,60716.1
    Bunbury11.754.413,23415.6
    North7.263.610,80912.8
    South24.757.15,6636.7
    Other votes12.266.110,48412.4
    Pre-poll11.064.015,79618.7

    Election results in Forrest at the 2016 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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    12 COMMENTS

    1. realistically this seat is not under any threat of changing hands, but I think the swing to labor could be enormous.

      colossal collapse in liberal party primary vote in both collie-preston and bunbury at the state election after minimal change at the last federal election. this seat might become interesting if the vote for the nationals became higher.

    2. Bunbury might swing ALP, but the rest of the seat gives them no chance.

      The Greens will get their normal vote around Margaret River, but I doubt that will make any difference, as I’d reckon that a large part of the ALP’s vote in this area is Green prefs anyway.

      Anyway, with ultra-conservative Busso / Dunsborough in this electorate, there’s no chance of a change.

    3. Collie should be in this seat……. the seats of Murray, Collie-preston and Bunbury overlap this seat…. and are all Labor held…… the remainder is sold Liberal…………On state figures Bunbury 62% Alp……I suspect the federal figures here are the reverse 60% lib

    4. If state figures are exactly replicated, Labor narrowly wins this seat (on Antony Green’s figures).

      There’s a pathway; both Labor and the Greens have areas that they can work (with Labor having some miraculously huge swings at the state election), and WA Nats and right wing minor parties could stir things up a bit by running, just in terms of preference leakage.

      It would be extraordinary if this was anything other than a Liberal retain however.

    5. I think Nola Marino should hold on as she is a popular and well known local MP.
      However there could be a huge swing.

      Perhaps something like this;

      LIB – 30
      ALP – 26
      GRN – 13
      PHON – 10
      WA National – 8
      SFF – 5
      Others – 8

    6. Oscar best result for yr guessed figures is the preferences are neutral.is the liberals retain their 4% lead suggested 8% swing in blusher track

    7. Can’t see the Libs losing here, one of their strongest seats in WA.
      That being said with a large swing to Labor in the works in WA this could become marginal.
      This seat would be so far down in Labor’s priority list behind, Swan, Pearce, Hasluck, Stirling and Canning, as well as holding Cowan and Perth.
      My guesstimate from here Lib hold 55-45, which is a healthy 7 point swing to Labor.

    8. Haven’t seen it reportedly confirmed anywhere but pretty sure Anthony Marinovich has pulled out of running as a candidate. Unknown who Labor will re-select at short notice. Possible Bunbury councillor Karen Steele. Doesn’t bode well if there’s an early election.

      Hope for a swing to Labor, but getting the 2PP to even 55% a tall ask here. Nola has a strong rusted on base, even in Bunbury area that will split towards Labor and should be largely unaffected compared to other seats in WA.

    9. Rumour is that Nola Marino is considering retiring. She is a very moderate MP, and such supported Malcolm Turnbull. She is also Gov whip a role much reduced if they lose the next election. If she doesn’t recontest this seat could be closer and would likely see a surge for the Nationals candidate. She is a very popular local MP, the local football best player award is called the Nola Marino Award. Such she would be very missed if she doesn’t re-contest.

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