Forrest – Australia 2019

LIB 12.6%

Incumbent MP
Nola Marino, since 2007.

Geography
South-western corner of Western Australia. Forrest covers the towns of Bunbury, Busselton and Margaret River. Forrest is made up of Augusta-Margaret River, Bunbury, Busselton, Capel, Dardanup, Donnybrook-Balingup, Harvey and Nanrup council areas.

History
Forrest was created for the 1922 election. It has been held predominantly by conservative parties, first by the Country Party before the Second World War and then the Liberal Party. It has only been won by the ALP at three elections.

John Prowse won Forrest in 1922 for the Country Party. Prowse had won the seat of Swan in 1919, before moving to the new seat in 1922. Prowse held the seat for two decades, until his defeat in 1943.

The ALP’s Nelson Lemmon won Forrest in 1943. He was re-elected in 1946, and was then appointed Minister for Works and Housing in the Chifley government, and he was responsible for the commencement of the Snowy Mountains Scheme. He lost Forrest in 1949.

The Liberal Party’s Gordon Freeth won Forrest in 1949. He was appointed to the Menzies government’s ministry in 1958, and served as a minister continuously until his defeat in 1969, when Forrest was won by the ALP’s Frank Kirwan.

Kirwan lost in 1972, going against the trend which saw the Whitlam government end 23 years of Liberal rule. He was defeated by Liberal candidate Peter Drummond. Drummond held the seat until his retirement in 1987.

Geoff Prosser won Forrest in 1987. He joined the Liberal frontbench in 1990, and was appointed as a minister in the Howard government after the 1996 election. He only lasted until 1997, when he was forced to resign due to breaches of the code of conduct. He served as a backbencher until his retirement in 2007.

Nola Marino was elected in 2007, and re-elected in 2010, 2013 and 2016.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Forrest is a safe Liberal seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Nola Marino Liberal 41,86949.4-1.8
Lorrae Loud Labor 19,59623.1-0.4
Jill Reading Greens 10,13712.0+2.1
Luke Pilkington Nationals 4,3065.1-1.3
Ross Maitland SlaterIndependent2,8963.4+3.4
David FishlockOutdoor Recreation Party2,3752.8+2.8
Edward DabrowskiAustralian Christians1,8582.2+0.6
Jennifer WhatelyRise Up Australia1,6542.0+1.3
Informal5,2695.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Nola Marino Liberal 52,98162.6-1.3
Lorrae Loud Labor 31,71037.4+1.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Bunbury, Busselton and Harvey local government areas have been divided along council lines, with the remainder of the electorate split into “South” and “Central”.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 54.4% in Bunbury to 66.4% in Busselton.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 7.2% in the north to 24.7% in the south.

Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central10.463.715,09817.8
Busselton13.466.413,60716.1
Bunbury11.754.413,23415.6
North7.263.610,80912.8
South24.757.15,6636.7
Other votes12.266.110,48412.4
Pre-poll11.064.015,79618.7

Election results in Forrest at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.