Flynn – Australia 2019

LNP 1.0%

Incumbent MP
Ken O’Dowd, since 2010.

Geography
Central Queensland. Flynn covers Gladstone and comes close to covering the regional centres of Bundaberg and Rockhampton. It also covers the inland local government areas of Banana, Central Highlands and North Burnett, as well as parts of South Burnett.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Flynn was created for the 2007 election as a notionally National seat, taking parts of Maranoa, Capricornia and Hinkler. Capricornia has almost always been held by the ALP in recent decades, although the Nationals gained it for one term after both the 1975 and 1996 landslides. Maranoa has been held by the Nationals since the Second World War, while Hinkler’s shorter history has been dominated by the Nationals, except for two terms of the ALP holding the seat.

The 2007 redistribution saw Flynn created with a 7.7% margin for the Nationals, but a massive swing to the ALP saw the seat won by Chris Trevor by a slim margin.

In 2010, a 5.8% swing to the LNP saw Ken O’Dowd defeat Trevor. O’Dowd was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Flynn is an extremely marginal seat and Labor will be hopeful of taking this seat. One Nation polled strongly in Flynn in 2016, and would also be hopeful of increasing support and breaking through into the top two.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ken O’Dowd Liberal National 32,29337.1-9.0
Zac Beers Labor 29,09433.4-0.1
Phil BakerOne Nation14,94817.2+17.2
Richard LoveKatter’s Australian Party2,9483.4-0.8
Craig Tomsett Greens 2,4162.8+0.6
Heather BarnettFamily First2,1732.5+1.0
Nathan Joel David FletcherIndependent1,9272.2+2.2
Duncan ScottIndependent8641.0+0.1
Jordan Ryan PukuIndependent4830.6+0.6
Informal5,7556.2

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ken O’Dowd Liberal National 44,48051.0-5.5
Zac Beers Labor 42,66649.0+5.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas, along local government boundaries. Polling places in North Burnett and South Burnett council areas have been grouped together as ‘Burnett’. Polling places in the other five local government areas have been broken down by council area.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vot ein four out of six areas, with a vote ranging from 54.8% in Bundaberg to 66.3% in Burnett. Labor won 56.7% in Rockhampton and 61.4% in Gladstone.

One Nation polled strongly in Flynn, with a vote ranging from 14.7% in Gladstone to 22.6% in Bundaberg.

Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Rockhampton20.543.36,4517.4
Central Highlands18.357.86,3527.3
Bundaberg22.654.85,4876.3
Burnett16.266.35,2516.0
Banana16.862.33,5694.1
Gladstone14.738.617,48920.1
Other votes17.860.516,67319.1
Pre-poll16.448.225,87429.7

Election results in Flynn at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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22 COMMENTS

  1. Zac Beers is contesting again for Labor.

    Ken O’Dowd’s fifteen minutes of fame when he suggested he could lead the post-Barnaby Nats and was greeted by bemused silence was one of the funnier moments of this year to date.

  2. It was amazing how this seat was down as a Labor gain with a margin of about 2% on election night and how much postal votes swung this seat back for an LNP hold!

  3. It is amazing to put this against Capricornia and see how hard this swung. It says something about the quality of the respective sitting members.

  4. Labor gain. Probably from Labors point of view they would prefer there primary vote gets to a level where preferences from One Nation don’t become vital in deciding the outcome of the seat. Labor will again poll strong in Gladstone while postals will again trend heavily for the LNP from the rural areas. One Nation won’t break into the final two party preferred.

    Labor in the 2007 election looked like they had the seat in the bag on election night leading by 5000 votes. Then postals came in and it cut the margin down to around 900. Labor still won but gives you an indication of how many postals are in this seat.

  5. Ken O’Dowd must feel like the condemned man with an 11’th hr reprieve . However with the CFMMEU factor KAP are a real chance here too.

  6. One Nation are a real threat here. O’Dowd has been very clear that he will preference them over Labor (and Nat affiliated LNP are allowed to). If his vote collapses and PHON pick up enough of the pieces, they’ll be in a position to win the seat. This is because the PHON vote split 50/50 last time between the 2 majors, so much of Labor’s margin is actually locked up in the PHON vote.

    If the scenario looks likely to happen, there may be value in tactically preferencing/voting for LNP over Labor (and PHON) to ensure that LNP end up in 2nd place. After so many years of IRV we’re finally starting to see situations where tactical voting is relevant.

  7. tactical voting for some one you don’t wish to vote for is difficult to achieve and messy…. can also backfire……….. my gut instinct is not to do so

  8. This seat is a strange one, we have the Labor fortress of Gladstone, but its lumped into a very rural seat with some very fanatical right wing residents. Add in heaps of coal mines and we get a very diverse seat.

    This is safer than Capricornia statistically, yet I’d say Labor has a better shot here than in the Rocky based seat. The issue for the LNP here is that O’Dowd isn’t a fantastic MP, and is only really held up in parliament by the party faithful. The LNP would stand a better chance here with a better candidate.

    I’d say that there is room for a Katter, Hanson or Palmer candidate to do decently here, or at least cause enough of a split to pull votes from the LNP and flow them to Labor.

  9. Exactly @tbyrn21! Thanks for the backup!

    I’ve always thought Flynn would be a Labor gain rather than Capricornia – Michelle Landry seems much more active than Ken O’Dowd. Labor may gain Capricornia but I still think (and hope) Landry will hang on!

  10. Not going to happen, The writ has been dropped bring the game on, I will do prediction’s for individual seats later, This one being a Labor gain, i predict 87 seats for Labor today

  11. One Nation out polled LNP in state seat of Galdstone and did really well in Callide. In the state seat of Burnett, which covers the strip between Bundaberg and Gladstone the well regarded State member did ok but had weak spots. O’Dowd is lazy an missing in action in this area. I expect he won’t perform as strongly as the State MP.

    The Adani thing may save him, but LNP holding its other seats and winning Herbert while losing Flynn wouldn’t surprise me.

    Also worth mentioning is Flynn had one of the larger swings last election. Landry held on a much smaller margin. LNP are well aware Flynn is a weak spot and will shift their more experieneced operators into the seat.

  12. QO
    Agree with all that. Adani is really the main game. Can’t see Flynn flipping unless something changes

  13. Everyone I have spoken to in rural areas don’t like any of the major parties and there is a divide with adani some want the mine some would rather protect the tourism dollar

  14. I actually think it will swing to ALP.

    I haven’t been there this week, but I don’t think Adani is as much an issue here as it is in the neighboring division. Still an issue absolutely,but I think a swing of 1% or greater to ALP

  15. LNP ahead 53 – 47 in Flynn (with the usual caveat of the unreliability of seat polls). This pretty much what most of us knew – Labor will struggle in north QLD. However, if the statewide polls are right (~ 4% swing to Labor) then there must clearly be a significant swing in SE QLD to offset this. Either that or the polls are underestimating the LNP’s vote (which is entirely possible too).

  16. Terrible poll for Labor in Flynn today…..they must be doing really well in cities to off set this.

  17. Interestingly, the seat poll has the 2 majors on very similar primaries to 2016, and UAP on 14 and ON down significantly to 7. Seems the 2% swing to the LNP is based solely on guessing UAP & ON preference flows, which I believe they are assuming will run at 60% to the LNP.

    It’s certainly a plausible result, however if the UAP vote is overstated and they don’t flow as well to the LNP as they are guessing than it could be much closer. The poll may also be completely wrong as seat polls can be

  18. What Boatswain posted about preference flows is really relevant here.

    On top of that if the LNP is slightly inflsted (within margin of error) that TPP is changed. I still have this line ball.

  19. think the Margin of error based on sample size is 4%
    in last Qld election the preferences were largely neutral

  20. Boaty, FTB, & W of S
    What was overlooked here was that the LNP won with37% PV. So minors were always going to be crucial.

  21. WD

    He could win on a 37% primary, and
    labor would want that to drop. But my point was that the 2% swing to the LNP is based on guesses about preference flows. So it remains to be seen whether their prediction/guess is accurate or not, and whether their seat poll is accurate on the PVs to begin with.

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