Dunkley – Australia 2019

ALP 1.0%

Incumbent MP
Chris Crewther (LIB), since 2016.

Geography
South-Eastern Melbourne. Dunkley covers all of the City of Frankston and part of the Shire of Mornington Peninsula. Main suburbs include Frankston, Sandhurst, Skye, Carrum Downs, Langwarrin and Seaford.

Redistribution
Dunkley shifted north, gaining Carrum Downs, Sandhurst and Skye from Isaacs, and losing Mornington to Flinders. These changes flipped the seat from a 1.4% Liberal margin to a 1% Labor margin.

History
Dunkley was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has almost always been a marginal electorate, and swung back and forth regularly in the 1980s, although the Liberal Party managed to hold onto the seat since 1996, although often by slim margins.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor’s Bob Chynoweth. Chynoweth had won Flinders at the 1983 election, defeating new MP Peter Reith, who had won a by-election for the seat four months earlier. Chynoweth moved to Dunkley following the redistribution.

He held the seat in 1987 before losing to Liberal candidate Frank Ford in 1990. Chynoweth won the seat back in 1993.

A redistribution before the 1996 election saw Dunkley become a notional Liberal seat, and Chynoweth was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Billson. Billson held Dunkley for twenty years until his retirement in 2016, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Chris Crewther.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
xxx

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Chris Crewther Liberal 38,15842.7-6.041.1
Peta Murphy Labor 29,62033.2+2.336.5
Jeanette Swain Greens 8,6169.6+0.39.5
Ruth StanfieldDerryn Hinch’s Justice Party5,5106.2+6.25.0
Tyson JackAnimal Justice1,9262.2+2.22.9
Michael RathboneFamily First1,3931.6-0.41.3
Joseph ToscanoIndependent1,1321.3+1.31.1
Tim WilmsLiberal Democrats1,0371.2+1.20.9
Jeff ReaneyAustralian Christians6770.8+0.80.6
Lin TregenzaRise Up Australia6820.8+0.20.6
Sally BaillieuArts Party5420.6+0.60.5
Informal6,1516.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Chris Crewther Liberal 45,92551.4-4.149.0
Peta Murphy Labor 43,36848.6+4.151.0

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Dunkley have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 52.8% in the centre and 59.5% in the north. The Liberal Party polled 65.7% in the south.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central52.826,39929.1
North59.520,69922.8
South34.36,7327.4
Other votes47.217,45119.3
Pre-poll48.619,34821.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Dunkley at the 2016 federal election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.