Dunkley – Australia 2019

ALP 1.0%

Incumbent MP
Chris Crewther (LIB), since 2016.

Geography
South-Eastern Melbourne. Dunkley covers all of the City of Frankston and part of the Shire of Mornington Peninsula. Main suburbs include Frankston, Sandhurst, Skye, Carrum Downs, Langwarrin and Seaford.

Redistribution
Dunkley shifted north, gaining Carrum Downs, Sandhurst and Skye from Isaacs, and losing Mornington to Flinders. These changes flipped the seat from a 1.4% Liberal margin to a 1% Labor margin.

History
Dunkley was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has almost always been a marginal electorate, and swung back and forth regularly in the 1980s, although the Liberal Party managed to hold onto the seat since 1996, although often by slim margins.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor’s Bob Chynoweth. Chynoweth had won Flinders at the 1983 election, defeating new MP Peter Reith, who had won a by-election for the seat four months earlier. Chynoweth moved to Dunkley following the redistribution.

He held the seat in 1987 before losing to Liberal candidate Frank Ford in 1990. Chynoweth won the seat back in 1993.

A redistribution before the 1996 election saw Dunkley become a notional Liberal seat, and Chynoweth was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Billson. Billson held Dunkley for twenty years until his retirement in 2016, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Chris Crewther.

Candidates

Assessment
Dunkley is a very marginal seat. The redistribution may help Labor gain the seat but the incumbent Liberal MP won’t make it easy.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Chris Crewther Liberal 38,15842.7-6.041.1
Peta Murphy Labor 29,62033.2+2.336.5
Jeanette Swain Greens 8,6169.6+0.39.5
Ruth StanfieldDerryn Hinch’s Justice Party5,5106.2+6.25.0
Tyson JackAnimal Justice1,9262.2+2.22.9
Michael RathboneFamily First1,3931.6-0.41.3
Joseph ToscanoIndependent1,1321.3+1.31.1
Tim WilmsLiberal Democrats1,0371.2+1.20.9
Jeff ReaneyAustralian Christians6770.8+0.80.6
Lin TregenzaRise Up Australia6820.8+0.20.6
Sally BaillieuArts Party5420.6+0.60.5
Informal6,1516.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Chris Crewther Liberal 45,92551.4-4.149.0
Peta Murphy Labor 43,36848.6+4.151.0

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Dunkley have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 52.8% in the centre and 59.5% in the north. The Liberal Party polled 65.7% in the south.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central52.826,39929.1
North59.520,69922.8
South34.36,7327.4
Other votes47.217,45119.3
Pre-poll48.619,34821.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Dunkley at the 2016 federal election

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63 COMMENTS

  1. You know what, I don’t care for what I elected previously. Labour and ALP both have lost trust.
    Find a common voice in others.
    I don’t care, I’m sick off liars and distrust in the ability of members to deliver interest to the region.
    We need to be careful as we have the largest planning office in local Vic government therefore most prone to influence for vain interest.
    Change the interest and fight mistrust.
    MDT

  2. Simisdaone, not sure if Hinch has announced anything on preferences, but he will not go anywhere near the Coalition. Hinch is scathing about the impact of Palmer and Hanson on Australian politics, so the Coalition’s deals with Palmer and Hanson will surely lose Hinch. In Victoria, losing these preferences will really matter to the Coalition.

  3. @Barry

    That’s gold. WTF are Crewther’s team thinking… So I take it Palmer’s not paying backpackers this time, instead he’s paying Lib members?

  4. They did that at the state election too. Same volunteers wearing liberal shirts in the morning then minor party shirts (that preferenced them) in the afternoon.

    Anyway, nothing that’s happened here makes me think the result can be anything but a Labor win.

  5. Lots of Chris Crewther ads appearing on facebook. Almost all are negative attacks on his opponent, including a rehash of 2016 attack ads. I don’t think people will appreciate so much negativity.

  6. The Liberal Mayor of Frankston looking like he’ll be sacked for a blatantly biased public intervention (claiming to represent a Council view) on behalf of the flagging local MP Chris Crewther. Watch this space! On the campaigning front, the Liberals have totally given up, with all resources sent to try to save Greg Hunt in Flinders.

  7. Not surprised they’ve given up Barry. All reports seem to suggest this seat, Corangamite (at least according to labor) and Chisholm are as good as gone.

  8. Interesting I have moved to the seat 3 years ago. I enjoy living here Chris Crewther seemed invisible for a while after elected. I met him twice seems quite pleasant. I have also met Peta Murphy she is nice as well so whom ever wins the seat I hope they work hard for all in the electorate.

  9. Dunkley Debate tonight at Frankston Football Club. Very few Liberal supporters turned up, suggesting that the Libs have given up. Interestingly, session was opened by the Liberal Mayor (even after his sensational campaign intervention last week). He once again showed his political bias and will surely come under fire again.

  10. Interestingly, most of the biggest swings here were in the most strongly Liberal parts of the seat: Mount Eliza and Frankston South.

    Perhaps with the redistribution, these booths lost the Liberal-voting overflow from further south. But these areas are affluent, and you’d still expect a solid 60%+ vote for the Libs around there, instead of the 50-55% they ended up getting.

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