Dobell – Australia 2019

ALP 4.8%

Incumbent MP
Emma McBride, since 2016.

Geography
NSW Central Coast. Dobell covers most of Wyong Shire and parts of the City of Gosford. Dobell covers Lake Tuggerah and the suburbs surrounding it, including Wyong, Bateau Bay, The Entrance and Toukley, while those parts of Wyong Shire from Budgewoi Lake north are not part of the electorate. The seat also covers a small part of the City of Gosford, extending as far as Wyoming and the northern parts of Terrigal.

History
Dobell was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded. It was first won by Michael Lee (ALP). Lee held the seat by largely safe margins for over a decade, becoming a federal minister from the 1993 election until Paul Keating’s defeat in 1996, when Lee came close to losing Dobell.

Lee served as a senior member of the Labor frontbench from 1996 to 2001, when he was defeated by Ken Ticehurst (LIB). Lee went on to run as the ALP candidate for Lord Mayor of Sydney in 2004 and served on the City of Sydney council from 2004 to 2008 after losing the lord mayoralty to Clover Moore.

Ticehurst won the seat twice before losing in 2007 to Labor candidate Craig Thomson, then Assistant Secretary of the Health Services Union. Thomson was re-elected in 2010.

In his second term, Thomson was accused of improper use of his HSU credit card before entering Parliament. Thomson was suspended from the ALP in 2012 and finished his term as an independent.

Dobell was won in 2013 by Liberal candidate Karen McNamara, with Thomson coming a distant fifth.

McNamara only held Dobell for one term, losing to Labor’s Emma McBride in 2016.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Dobell is a marginal seat, but McBride has a decent margin and should benefit from a national pro-Labor swing and a new personal vote to give her a strong chance of re-election.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Emma Mcbride Labor 41,45442.9+6.5
Karen Mcnamara Liberal 36,58637.8-3.0
Carter EdwardsOne Nation8,3268.6+8.6
Abigail Boyd Greens 5,6075.8+0.9
Hadden Robert ErvinChristian Democratic Party2,5492.6+1.2
Gregory F StephensonIndependent1,1761.2+1.2
Paul BakerIndependent9761.0+1.0
Informal5,9565.8

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Emma Mcbride Labor 52,99154.8+4.6
Karen Mcnamara Liberal 43,68345.2-4.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four parts:

  • Central – Berkeley Vale, Chittaway Bay, Tuggerah, Wyong
  • North-East – Gorokan, Toukley, Tuggerawong
  • South-East – Bateau Bay, Killarney Vale, The Entrance, Wyoming
  • West – rural areas away from the coast.

The ALP won a majority in the three more populous areas, ranging from 52.9% in the south-east to 61.1% in the north-east. The Liberal Party won 53.2% in the sparsely populated west.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East52.927,87228.8
North-East61.121,64622.4
Central56.312,59013.0
West46.83,4283.5
Other votes51.811,00811.4
Pre-poll52.820,13020.8

Two-party-preferred votes in Dobell at the 2016 federal election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.