Deakin – Australia 2019

LIB 6.4%

Incumbent MP
Michael Sukkar, since 2013.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Main suburbs are Nunawading, Mitcham, Ringwood, Heathmont, Croydon, Croydon Hills, Kilsyth South and Vermont. Seat covers most of the Maroondah council area, and part of the Whitehorse council area.

Redistribution
Deakin shifted to the north-east, losing Blackburn to Chisholm and gaining Croydon Hills and Croydon North from Menzies, and also gaining Kilsyth South from Casey. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%.

History
Deakin was first created in 1937, and has been almost always held by the United Australia Party and Liberal Party.

The seat originally covered rural areas to the east and north-east of Melbourne, until the 1968 redistribution moved the seat into the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, in the same sort of area that the seat covers today.

The seat was first won by the UAP’s William Hutchinson in 1937. Hutchinson had previously held the neighbouring seat of Indi. Hutchinson joined the Liberal Party in 1944 and retired from Parliament at the 1949 election. Frank Davis then held it until 1966, when Alan Jarman won the seat. Jarman was defeated by John Saunderson (ALP) in 1983. Saunderson moved to the new seat of Aston in 1984, when Julian Beale won the seat for the Liberals.

Beale was succeded in 1990 by Ken Aldred. Aldred had previously been elected at the 1983 Bruce by-election and held Bruce until the 1990 redistribution. Aldred was disendorsed before the 1996 election after raising conspiracy theories in Parliament, based on documents supplied by the Citizens Electoral Council. Aldred was later selected by local branches to run in the marginal seat of Holt at the 2007 election before having his preselection vetoed by the state party.

The seat was won in 1996 by Phil Barresi, who held it until his defeat in 2007 by the ALP’s Mike Symon.

Symon held Deakin for two terms, but in 2013 he lost to Liberal candidate Michael Sukkar. Sukkar was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Deakin has been a marginal seat at recent elections, but a shift into safer territory may help out the sitting MP.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Sukkar Liberal 45,161 50.0 +4.2 50.3
Tony Clark Labor 28,021 31.0 -1.7 30.1
Joshua Briers Greens 10,587 11.7 +0.9 11.3
Vanessa Browne Animal Justice 2,394 2.7 +2.7 3.0
Karen Dobby Australian Christians 2,096 2.3 +0.4 1.8
Gary John Coombes Family First 2,009 2.2 +0.9 2.2
Others 1.3
Informal 2,471 2.7

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Sukkar Liberal 50,264 55.7 +2.5 56.4
Tony Clark Labor 40,004 44.3 -2.5 43.6

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Deakin have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.7% in the centre to 55.5% in the east.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.2% in the east to 12.9% in the centre.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 11.2 55.5 20,471 21.3
West 11.3 54.3 19,419 20.2
Central 12.9 53.7 17,458 18.2
Other votes 10.4 59.6 19,263 20.1
Pre-poll 11.1 58.9 19,393 20.2

Election results in Chisholm at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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53 COMMENTS

  1. If Sukkar’s primary vote sinks 5 per cent as the Galaxy poll indicates, the composition of the ballot paper suggests the seat will fall to Labor. Animal Justice preferencing to Labor candidate. I suspect Hinch Justice candidate might be also but I haven’t seen a how-to-vote card.

  2. Think all this poll tells you is that Deakin is line Ball and that the swing is on in Eastern Melbourne. No wonder the libs have given up on Chisholm

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